The Paris Bourse begins the session, the week and the April trading term on a note of total indecision (the CAC40 index stagnates at around 8,165 points), with no source of inspiration and no volume whatsoever, since less than 750MnsE were traded in the space of 5 hours of trading.
The week will be punctuated by the monetary policy meetings of several major central banks, including the Fed... but there are unlikely to be any surprises (99% in favor of maintaining the key interest rate).

Investors don't seem to be in too much of a hurry to make a commitment ahead of the US Federal Reserve's meeting, which kicks off tomorrow with two days of discussions.

While the Fed is widely expected to maintain the status quo, markets will, as always, be on the lookout for the slightest revealing indication of the timetable for future interest rate cuts.

Many analysts believe that the central bank could revise upwards its outlook for economic growth and inflation, meaning that there is still no urgency to cut rates.

If the market comes to expect fewer rate cuts, or if rate hikes begin to be priced in (a very low risk in our view), risky asset prices will undergo a pronounced readjustment", warns Nanette Hechler-Fayd'herbe, strategist at Lombard Odier.

In addition to the Fed, the Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will also meet this week, and again no rate changes are expected from these two central banks.

The surprise could come from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which, according to market rumours, intends to normalize its monetary policy by raising the cost of money and ending negative interest rates.

Like other European markets, the Paris market has enjoyed an unprecedented 20-week bull run over the past three months, a momentum which enabled it to climb a further 1.7% last week and set new all-time highs.

This euphoria has led Robeco analysts to say that Eurozone equities are 'defying gravity', despite an economic climate of 'stagnation' but 'full employment'.

Against this backdrop, investors will be paying particular attention on Thursday to the publication of preliminary PMI indices for the major economies of the Old Continent.

'From an economic cycle point of view, a nascent recovery in the global manufacturing cycle could particularly benefit Europe and generate value', acknowledges strategist Peter van der Welle.

Robeco notes that European equity markets seem to have already priced in a full manufacturing recovery, which has yet to happen and may well not.

In today's statistics, annual inflation in the eurozone stood at 2.6% in February 2024, down from 2.8% in January, and in the European Union at 2.8% after 3.1%, according to Eurostat.

According to initial estimates, the eurozone recorded a surplus of 11.4 billion euros in its trade in goods with the rest of the world in January 2024, compared with a deficit of 32.6 billion euros in January 2023.

Bond markets continue to deteriorate, with +2pts on Bunds and OATs (2.896%) and +2.5pts on US TBonds at 4.329%.

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