Analysis: Currencies

The dollar supported by risk aversion and persistent inflation (UBP)

Last week, the US dollar index reached highs slightly above 102, supported by growing risk aversion in financial markets.

Euro hits a 17-month low

The euro is starting the week under pressure after already suffering in recent sessions. French budget concerns are reviving fears of contagion across the eurozone and pushing the single currency to...

Why the yen can shake global markets

The Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate to 1.25%, its highest level in thirty-one years. And yet the yen remains under pressure. This paradox illustrates how the carry trade works, a strategy...

The Greenback Rides Eurozone Vulnerabilities

The dollar consolidated its gains, supported by rising US Treasury yields and persistent global inflationary pressures. The euro paid a steep price, hurt by the eurozone's energy and fiscal...

The dollar climbs towards a two-month high

The greenback retook control this week, buoyed by expectations of tighter monetary policy and a heavy geopolitical backdrop. The yen and the Swiss franc sent mixed signals on risk appetite.

Sterling Weakened Despite BoE Holding Steady

The Bank of England meeting on September 18 delivered no surprise on monetary policy. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6 to 3 to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, as widely expected. The MPC flagged...

Yen Under Pressure: Bank of Japan Treads Carefully Against the Dollar

At its September 19 meeting, the Bank of Japan raised its deposit rate by 25bp, in line with expectations. The BoJ's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 in favor of the increase. The split vote...

The yen capitulates despite the BoJ

The week ended under a paradox: the Bank of Japan raised rates, and the yen still lost ground, overwhelmed by the force of US tightening and divisions within Japan's central bank.

The yen flexes its muscle, lifted by the BOJ and short covering

The yen is dominating FX headlines at the start of the week, having hit a 7-month high against the dollar, in a market otherwise waiting for the week's key events.

The yen rattles the stock market again

In barely two sessions, the yen has emerged as the market's most closely watched currency, propelled by a sudden reset of interest-rate expectations for the Bank of Japan. The rest of the FX market...

Currencies: the "$-Index" gives back 50% of its Friday gains

The greenback is reversing course after its powerful rally on Friday: the $ Index has lost half of its gains, the euro recovers +0.3% to $1.1618, the yen 0.25% to around 159.7, the pound +0.12%, the...

The dollar braces for Warsh

The dollar traded in a tight range this week, pulled between stickier-than-expected inflation data, debt-management policy announcements and the Fed chair's upcoming Jackson Hole speech.

Carry Trade Funded in Swiss Francs Back in Focus

Interventions aimed at supporting the yen are likely to increase the use of the Swiss franc as a funding currency. Such a shift would help weaken a currency whose strength has long weighed on Swiss...

The dollar holds its breath ahead of US inflation

The FX markets are moving in deceptively calm fashion, with traders holding their breath ahead of US inflation data, while also watching the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East.

Currencies: The dollar steadies

This week marks a noticeable shift in market tone. After several months dominated by a narrative of resilient growth and gradual disinflation, two developments have disrupted that reading:...

United Kingdom: Andy Burnham steadies gilts, but promises an economic pivot

Andy Burnham's arrival at Downing Street has not unsettled the UK markets. Investors are now waiting to see whether his social and industrial ambitions will remain compatible with the budget...

Currencies: the dollar holds firm

After several weeks of almost uninterrupted gains, the markets are entering a more selective phase. The macro backdrop remains broadly supportive, solid growth, gradual deflation and rising earnings....

Currencies: dollar lifted by a hawkish tilt

Markets are entering a more complex phase. After largely cheering the de-escalation in the Middle East conflict and the slide in oil prices, investors now have to contend with an environment where...

Currencies: The dollar remains strong

After several months in which markets moved to the beat of geopolitical tensions and then the oil shock, a new phase appears to be opening. The conflict in the Middle East is gradually fading from the...