Analysis: Interest Rates

US rates: the 5% threshold breaks, what now?

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury jumped Wednesday to its highest level since 2007, at 5.05%, clearly pushing through the 5.00% threshold around which it had stabilized in recent days. The move was...

How High Can Long-Term Rates Rise Before Stocks Crack?

The rebound in long-term US yields is calling into question the relative appeal of equities. As long as Wall Street keeps betting on earnings growth, it can hold up. But at around 5% or 5.5%, the...

Markets underestimate scale of upcoming rate hikes, Deutsche Bank says

Deutsche Bank believes that the financial markets may not have fully priced in the scale of the rate hikes ahead, noting that history shows central banks end up taking rates higher and more...

ECB: a preemptive rate hike amid energy uncertainty

The ECB raised rates for the second time at its September meeting, taking its deposit rate to 2.50%. However, inflation is showing no meaningful signs of accelerating beyond prices directly affected...

Oddo BHF: "Warsh's Fed showed its independence from the White House"

Since he took over as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh has banned any form of forward guidance, even the most minimal, because in his view it is not the Fed's job to tell the market what it should think....

Bank of England holds base rate steady

The Bank of England said its Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep its base rate at 3.75%, by a vote of six members to three, with the dissenters preferring a 0.25% increase to 4%....

Rate hikes to stop rates from rising

With rates continuing to climb, central banks need to act.

Bank of England: likely to hold rates steady amid energy market strains (AllianzGI)

We expect the Bank of England to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% at its September meeting. Since the July meeting, UK economic data have confirmed an improvement in the growth outlook, while...

United States: the dollar could be the first casualty of bond-yield manipulation

The question is worth asking as the US Treasury has already increased, for the second month in a row, the size of its Treasury buyback program, even though that increase does not yet amount to an...

A further ECB rate hike is now more likely, economists say

While the ECB's rate increase announced early this afternoon came as no surprise, elements in its statement are bolstering the view amongst economists reacting to the decision that this will not be...

ECB Raises Rates by 25bp, Flags the Energy Shock

As widely anticipated by economists, the ECB's Governing Council today decided to raise each of its three key interest rates by 25bp, saying that the conflict in the Middle East continues to generate...

Real estate: Americans are now borrowing at 6.85% for 30 years

The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, the benchmark in the US, has climbed to 6.85%. This is its highest level since June 2025, further complicating access to homeownership.

Does the ECB really need to raise rates?

Unsurprisingly, the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates on Thursday. However, is this really necessary?

ECB to raise rates a second time in September, but then done, say economists: Reuters poll 

The European Central Bank will raise interest rates on September 10 for the second and final time in what would be its shortest hiking campaign in 15 years, according to a Reuters poll published on...

Bond selloff is likely amplified by obscure economic rate

A recent rise in Treasury yields in part reflects growing investor bets that an obscure, theoretical rate consistent with stable growth and inflation is moving higher.  Some...

Why Japan's Yield Comeback Is Threatening US Bonds

With Japanese yields at their highest level in 30 years, local investors are rediscovering their home market. This shift could gradually reduce their demand for US, European and Australian bonds,...

Fed: Lombard Odier bets on a 25bp hike in September

According to Bill Papadakis, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier, the speech delivered on August 28 by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh offered the clearest indication yet of his view on the monetary policy...

At Jackson Hole, a moment of clarification

Kevin Warsh dusted off his hawkish suit.

Treasuries: Citadel Securities Now Betting on a Pullback in LT Rates

After taking a bearish view on bonds at the start of the summer, Citadel Securities now believes the risk-reward balance favors a decline in long-term US rates over the coming months.