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| 06-12 | Could This Finally Be the One? |  |
| 06-12 | Euronext includes Maurel et Prom, Mersen in SBF 120, excludes Elior Group, Nexity | RE |
Projected Income Statement: Gecina
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 613.3 | 625.9 | 666.8 | 694.5 | 712.6 | 720.6 | 737.9 | 776.1 |
| Change | - | 2.05% | 6.53% | 4.15% | 2.61% | 1.12% | 2.39% | 5.18% |
| EBITDA 1 | 476.4 | 496.5 | 535 | 565.7 | 589.7 | 596.3 | 612.5 | 644.1 |
| Change | - | 4.22% | 7.75% | 5.74% | 4.24% | 1.12% | 2.72% | 5.16% |
| EBIT 1 | 464.6 | 491.5 | 505.3 | 554 | 582.2 | 591.6 | 611.8 | 624.4 |
| Change | - | 5.79% | 2.81% | 9.64% | 5.09% | 1.61% | 3.41% | 2.07% |
| Interest Paid 1 | -81.86 | -87.14 | -90 | -90.5 | -93.9 | -94.83 | -109.2 | -123.3 |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 852.5 | 171.9 | -1,786 | 311.9 | 452.6 | 446.9 | 543.1 | 597.3 |
| Change | - | -79.83% | -1,138.74% | 117.47% | 45.11% | -1.26% | 21.54% | 9.98% |
| Net income 1 | 849.3 | 169.6 | -1,787 | 309.8 | 448.2 | 576 | 655.5 | 817.3 |
| Change | - | -80.03% | -1,153.77% | 117.33% | 44.67% | 28.51% | 13.82% | 24.68% |
| Announcement Date | 17/02/22 | 15/02/23 | 14/02/24 | 13/02/25 | 10/02/26 | - | - | - |
Forecast Balance Sheet: Gecina
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 6,898 | 7,177 | 6,200 | 6,500 | 6,754 | 6,915 | 7,101 | 7,175 |
| Change | - | 4.04% | -13.61% | 4.84% | 3.91% | 2.39% | 2.69% | 1.04% |
| Announcement Date | 17/02/22 | 15/02/23 | 14/02/24 | 13/02/25 | 10/02/26 | - | - | - |
Cash Flow Forecast: Gecina
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPEX 1 | 360.7 | 368.8 | 390.5 | 454.7 | 969.8 | 327.2 | 258.5 | 173.6 |
| Change | - | 2.26% | 5.89% | 16.42% | 113.3% | -66.26% | -21% | -32.82% |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 | 675.6 | 218.7 | 144.4 | 145.2 | 268.9 | 487 | 379 | 678 |
| Change | - | -67.62% | -33.96% | 0.51% | 85.24% | 81.09% | -22.18% | 78.89% |
| Announcement Date | 17/02/22 | 15/02/23 | 14/02/24 | 13/02/25 | 10/02/26 | - | - | - |
Forecast Financial Ratios: Gecina
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Profitability | ||||||||
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 77.68% | 79.33% | 80.23% | 81.45% | 82.75% | 82.75% | 83.01% | 82.99% |
| EBIT Margin (%) | 75.75% | 78.53% | 75.78% | 79.77% | 81.7% | 82.09% | 82.91% | 80.46% |
| EBT Margin (%) | 139% | 27.46% | -267.79% | 44.91% | 63.51% | 62.02% | 73.61% | 76.97% |
| Net margin (%) | 138.48% | 27.1% | -268.03% | 44.61% | 62.9% | 79.93% | 88.84% | 105.32% |
| FCF margin (%) | 110.16% | 34.95% | 21.66% | 20.9% | 37.74% | 67.58% | 51.36% | 87.36% |
| FCF / Net Income (%) | 79.55% | 128.96% | -8.08% | 46.86% | 60% | 84.55% | 57.81% | 82.95% |
Profitability | ||||||||
| ROA | 1.93% | 1.99% | 2.32% | 2.67% | 2.49% | 3.07% | 3.03% | 3.18% |
| ROE | 3.08% | 3.19% | 3.81% | 4.5% | 4.25% | 4.65% | 4.59% | 4.58% |
Financial Health | ||||||||
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 14.48x | 14.45x | 11.59x | 11.49x | 11.45x | 11.6x | 11.59x | 11.14x |
| Debt / Free cash flow | 10.21x | 32.81x | 42.92x | 44.77x | 25.11x | 14.2x | 18.74x | 10.58x |
Capital Intensity | ||||||||
| CAPEX / Current Assets (%) | 58.81% | 58.93% | 58.57% | 65.47% | 136.09% | 45.4% | 35.03% | 22.38% |
| CAPEX / EBITDA (%) | 75.7% | 74.28% | 73% | 80.37% | 164.46% | 54.87% | 42.2% | 26.96% |
| CAPEX / FCF (%) | 53.38% | 168.63% | 270.38% | 313.18% | 360.61% | 67.18% | 68.2% | 25.61% |
Items per share | ||||||||
| Cash flow per share 1 | 6.524 | 6.544 | 7.219 | 8.084 | 6.443 | 7.041 | 7.113 | 7.684 |
| Change | - | 0.3% | 10.33% | 11.98% | -20.31% | 9.3% | 1.01% | 8.03% |
| Dividend per Share 1 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.45 | 5.5 | 5.647 | 5.733 | 5.776 |
| Change | - | 0% | 0% | 2.83% | 0.92% | 2.67% | 1.53% | 0.75% |
| Book Value Per Share 1 | 175.8 | 172.9 | 143.2 | 142.1 | 142.6 | 143.9 | 146.6 | 150.4 |
| Change | - | -1.65% | -17.13% | -0.82% | 0.37% | 0.91% | 1.88% | 2.62% |
| EPS 1 | 11.53 | 2.299 | -24.15 | 4.175 | 6.028 | 7.333 | 7.803 | 8.423 |
| Change | - | -80.05% | -1,150.41% | 117.29% | 44.39% | 21.65% | 6.4% | 7.94% |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 73,714 | 73,802 | 73,881 | 73,945 | 74,065 | 74,119 | 74,119 | 74,119 |
| Announcement Date | 17/02/22 | 15/02/23 | 14/02/24 | 13/02/25 | 10/02/26 | - | - | - |
| 2026 * | 2027 * | |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 9.95x | 9.35x |
| PBR | 0.51x | 0.5x |
| EV / Sales | 17.1x | 16.9x |
| Yield | 7.74% | 7.86% |
EPS & Dividend
Y-o-Y evolution of P/E
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Trader
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Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise
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