Ratings Ecopetrol S.A.

Growth

This composite rating is the result of an average of the rankings according to the Revenue growth, EPS growth and FCF growth ratings. If the company is covered by at least two of these three ratings, the calculation is performed. We recommend that you read the associated descriptions carefully.

Profitability

This composite rating is the result of an average of the rankings according to the EBITDA margin, EBIT margin and Net margin ratings. If the company is covered by at least two of these three ratings, the calculation is performed. We recommend that you read the associated descriptions carefully.

Capital Efficiency

This composite rating is the result of an average of the rankings according to the ROE, ROA and ROCE ratings. If the company is covered by at least two of these three ratings, the calculation is performed. We recommend that you read the associated descriptions carefully.

Financial Health

This composite rating is the result of an average of the Leverage and Gearing ratings. The company must be covered by both ratings for the calculation to be made.

Capital Intensity

The CAPEX / EBITDA ratio compares capital expenditures with operating earnings as measured by EBITDA. It indicates the company’s capital intensity: the higher the ratio, the larger the share of operating cash flow that must be reinvested to maintain or expand productive capacity. A low ratio, by contrast, suggests less dependence on heavy investments, leaving more room for debt reduction or shareholder returns.

Enterprise Value

Enterprise Value reflects the total value of a company from the perspective of a buyer. It equals market capitalization plus net debt (financial debt minus cash). Unlike market cap alone, it accounts for all capital providers — both shareholders and lenders.

Equity Valuation

This composite rating is the result of an average of the rankings according to the P/E, PBR and dividend yield ratings. If the company is covered by at least two of these three ratings, the calculation is performed. We recommend that you read the associated descriptions carefully.

Analysts' buy/sell recommendations

This rating is based on analysts' recommendations regarding the company (i.e., whether they advise to buy, accumulate (outperform), hold, reduce (underperform), or sell shares). The rating reflects the overall consensus among analysts and takes into account the number of recommendations received. A positive consensus expressed by a large number of analysts results in a higher rating.

Analysts' recommendations evolution (1 year)

This rating is based on the changes in the analysts' recommendations rating over the past 12 months. The goal is to identify companies for which the analysts' consensus has varied the most. Recent positive revisions result in a higher rating.

Analysts' recommendations evolution (4 months)

This rating is based on the changes in the analysts' recommendations rating over the past 4 months. The goal is to identify companies for which the analysts' consensus has varied the most. Recent positive revisions result in a higher rating.

Analysts' target price

This rating is based on the distance (expressed as a percentage) between the company's latest known share price and the average target price set by analysts responsible for evaluating the company at leading global financial institutions. Naturally, a higher average target price relative to the current share price results in a better rating.

Analysts' target price evolution (1 year)

This rating is based on the changes in the average target price set by analysts who monitor the company at leading global financial institutions. The target price is a metric defined over a 12-month horizon and is subject to revisions. Naturally, any single analyst's updated estimate affects the average, so revisions to the average target price are frequent. Recent upgrades lead to a higher rating. This rating focuses specifically on the evolution of target price estimates over the past 12 months.

Analysts' target price evolution (4 months)

This rating is based on the changes in the average target price set by analysts responsible for evaluating the company at leading global financial institutions. The target price is a metric defined over a 12-month horizon and is subject to revisions. Naturally, any single analyst's updated estimate affects the average, so revisions to the average target price are frequent. Recent upward revisions lead to a higher rating. This rating focuses specifically on the evolution of target price estimates over the past 4 months.

Analysts' coverage

This rating is based on the number of estimates provided regarding the company's future business performance. A company followed by a larger number of analyst firms receives a higher rating. Naturally, the larger the company, the more analysts typically cover it.

Financial estimates divergence

This rating is based on the estimates made by analysts responsible for producing the company's financial forecasts at leading global financial institutions. The lower the dispersion in estimates for the accounting items to be published over the next three years, the higher the rating. Accounting items considered include: Revenue, EBITDA, EBIT, Pre-tax Income, Net Income, Earnings Per Share (EPS), and Dividend Per Share.

Analysts' recommendations divergence

This rating is based on analysts' recommendations regarding the company (i.e., whether they advise to buy, accumulate, hold, reduce, or sell shares). The rating reflects the level of divergence in analysts' opinions. A lower divergence of opinion results in a higher rating.

Analysts' Target price divergence

This rating is based on the target prices set by analysts responsible for evaluating the company at leading global financial institutions. The target price is a metric defined over a 12-month horizon and is subject to revisions. While the average target price is typically presented, it's important to understand that several analysts provide their individual assessments. The lower the dispersion in these target price estimates, the higher the rating.

Surprise rates

This rating is based on surprise rates from the last four completed fiscal periods. A surprise rate measures the difference between the consensus (average estimated value by the analysts covering the company) of an accounting item the day before publication and the actual value reported by the company on the publication day. A company that reports results above consensus receives a higher rating. Accounting items considered include: Revenue, EBIT, Net Income, and Earnings Per Share (EPS).

Revenue revisions (1 year)

This rating is based on the evolution of the company's revenue estimates for the next three fiscal years. These revenue targets are set by analysts responsible for the financial outlook of the company at the world's largest financial institutions and may be revised at any time. Recent positive revisions, which reflect increased analyst confidence in the company's ability to generate higher future revenues, lead to a better rating. Conversely, downward revisions can signal potential growth issues or unfavorable market conditions. The focus here is on estimate revisions made over the last 12 months.

Revenue revisions (4 months)

This rating is based on the evolution of the company's revenue estimates for the next three fiscal years. These revenue targets are set by analysts responsible for the financial outlook of the company at the world's largest financial institutions and may be revised at any time. Recent positive revisions, which reflect increased analyst confidence in the company's ability to generate higher future revenues, lead to a better rating. Conversely, downward revisions can signal potential growth issues or unfavorable market conditions. The focus here is on estimate revisions made over the last 4 months. In the short term, the 4-month revision rating is essential for assessing quick adjustments, which may result from quarterly announcements, strategic updates, or external shocks temporarily impacting the perception of future revenues.

EPS revisions (1 year)

This rating is based on the evolution of the company's EPS estimates for the next three fiscal years. These EPS targets are set by analysts responsible for the financial outlook of the company at the world's largest financial institutions and may be revised at any time. Recent positive revisions, often reflecting improving profitability and sound operational management, lead to a higher rating. Conversely, downward adjustments may signal concerns about profitability or exceptional expenses. The focus here is on estimate revisions made over the last 12 months.

EPS revisions (4 months)

This rating is based on the evolution of the company's EPS estimates for the next three fiscal years. These EPS targets are set by analysts responsible for the financial outlook of the company at the world's largest financial institutions and may be revised at any time. Recent positive revisions, often reflecting improving profitability and sound operational management, lead to a higher rating. Conversely, downward adjustments may signal concerns about profitability or exceptional expenses. The focus here is on estimate revisions made over the last 4 months.