Projected Income Statement: Treasury Wine Estates Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: Treasury Wine Estates Limited

Fiscal Period: June 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 1,080 1,254 1,386 1,713 1,779 1,669 1,402 1,213
Change - 16.11% 10.53% 23.59% 3.85% -6.18% -16% -13.48%
Announcement Date 18/08/21 17/08/22 14/08/23 14/08/24 12/08/25 - - -
1AUD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Treasury Wine Estates Limited

Fiscal Period: June 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 121.2 112.2 249 190.1 137.1 123.3 108 122.7
Change - -7.43% 121.93% -23.65% -27.88% -10.03% -12.46% 13.66%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 349.9 449.8 23 307.7 388.6 89.64 368.1 379.4
Change - 28.55% -94.89% 1,237.83% 26.29% -76.93% 310.59% 3.1%
Announcement Date 18/08/21 17/08/22 14/08/23 14/08/24 12/08/25 - - -
1AUD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Treasury Wine Estates Limited

Fiscal Period: June 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 27.93% 26.55% 29.37% 28.96% 31.88% 25.66% 27.27% 28.49%
EBIT Margin (%) 19.01% 20.68% 23.45% 23.43% 26.22% 18.94% 20.27% 21.81%
EBT Margin (%) 16.27% 14.73% 13.54% 5.99% 22.04% 4.45% 16.12% 18.27%
Net margin (%) 9.31% 10.4% 10.23% 3.52% 14.87% -17.57% 11.2% 12.95%
FCF margin (%) 13.04% 17.77% 0.92% 10.96% 13.23% 3.59% 15.09% 14.82%
FCF / Net Income (%) 139.96% 170.9% 9.04% 311.12% 88.94% -20.41% 134.71% 114.43%

Profitability

        
ROA 3.87% 4.07% 5.47% 5.41% 5.52% 2.1% 4.66% 5.28%
ROE 6.96% 7.14% 9.84% 9.64% 9.32% 5.7% 6.65% 7.43%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.44x 1.87x 1.9x 2.11x 1.9x 2.6x 2.11x 1.66x
Debt / Free cash flow 3.09x 2.79x 60.27x 5.57x 4.58x 18.62x 3.81x 3.2x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 4.52% 4.43% 10.01% 6.77% 4.67% 4.94% 4.43% 4.79%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 16.17% 16.69% 34.07% 23.37% 14.63% 19.24% 16.23% 16.83%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 34.64% 24.94% 1,082.61% 61.78% 35.28% 137.6% 29.34% 32.35%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 0.653 0.7751 0.3749 0.5543 0.6445 0.1946 0.5314 0.5914
Change - 18.7% -51.63% 47.84% 16.27% -69.81% 173.12% 11.31%
Dividend per Share 1 0.28 0.31 0.35 0.36 0.4 - 0.0549 0.2386
Change - 10.71% 12.9% 2.86% 11.11% - - 334.58%
Book Value Per Share 1 4.969 5.243 5.35 5.661 5.896 5.016 5.311 5.525
Change - 5.51% 2.03% 5.83% 4.15% -14.93% 5.89% 4.03%
EPS 1 0.346 0.363 0.351 0.126 0.538 -0.6055 0.3334 0.4019
Change - 4.91% -3.31% -64.1% 326.98% -212.54% 155.06% 20.55%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 721,440 721,848 721,848 811,426 811,426 807,437 807,437 807,437
Announcement Date 18/08/21 17/08/22 14/08/23 14/08/24 12/08/25 - - -
1AUD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E ratio -7.2x 13.1x
PBR 0.87x 0.82x
EV / Sales 2.08x 2.02x
Yield - 1.26%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
A
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
HOLD
Number of Analysts
15
Last Close Price
4.360AUD
Average target price
5.612AUD
Spread / Average Target
+28.72%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

  1. Stock Market
  2. Equities
  3. TWE Stock
  4. Financials Treasury Wine Estates Limited