Projected Income Statement: Rio Tinto Group

Forecast Balance Sheet: Rio Tinto Group

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net Debt 1 664 -1,576 4,188 4,231 5,491 13,778 12,935 11,082
Change - -337.35% 365.74% 1.03% 29.78% 150.92% -6.12% -14.33%
Announcement Date 17/02/21 23/02/22 22/02/23 21/02/24 19/02/25 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Rio Tinto Group

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CAPEX 1 6,189 7,384 6,750 7,086 9,621 10,691 10,507 9,613
Change - 19.31% -8.59% 4.98% 35.77% 11.12% -1.73% -8.5%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 9,686 17,961 9,010 7,657 5,978 5,989 10,321 12,064
Change - 85.43% -49.84% -15.02% -21.93% 0.18% 72.34% 16.89%
Announcement Date 17/02/21 23/02/22 22/02/23 21/02/24 19/02/25 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Rio Tinto Group

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 53.58% 59.41% 47.29% 44.21% 43.45% 43.93% 46.92% 45.88%
EBIT Margin (%) 43.99% 52.01% 36.92% 28.68% 30.73% 31.37% 35.52% 34.4%
EBT Margin (%) 34.5% 48.56% 33.59% 25.51% 29.1% 28.22% 33.01% 32.32%
Net margin (%) 21.9% 33.22% 22.36% 18.61% 21.53% 19.13% 22.88% 22.38%
FCF margin (%) 21.71% 28.29% 16.22% 14.17% 11.14% 10.66% 17.21% 19.6%
FCF / Net Income (%) 99.15% 85.15% 72.54% 76.13% 51.75% 55.69% 75.23% 87.58%

Profitability

        
ROA 13.44% 21.06% 12.44% 10.04% 11.2% 9.69% 10.94% 10.52%
ROE 28.42% 42.84% 24.45% 19.12% 21.04% 18.38% 21.03% 19.2%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 0.03x - 0.16x 0.18x 0.24x 0.56x 0.46x 0.39x
Debt / Free cash flow 0.07x - 0.46x 0.55x 0.92x 2.3x 1.25x 0.92x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 13.87% 11.63% 12.15% 13.11% 17.93% 19.02% 17.52% 15.62%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 25.89% 19.58% 25.69% 29.66% 41.27% 43.31% 37.34% 34.05%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 63.9% 41.11% 74.92% 92.54% 160.94% 178.52% 101.8% 79.68%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 9.747 15.56 9.901 9.292 9.55 9.771 11.5 11.6
Change - 59.63% -36.37% -6.15% 2.77% 2.31% 17.73% 0.85%
Dividend per Share 1 4.64 10.4 4.92 4.35 4.02 3.95 4.675 4.649
Change - 124.14% -52.69% -11.59% -7.59% -1.75% 18.37% -0.57%
Book Value Per Share 1 29.09 31.78 30.98 33.67 42.79 38.36 41.64 44.68
Change - 9.24% -2.53% 8.68% 27.11% -10.35% 8.55% 7.28%
EPS 1 5.998 12.95 7.621 6.165 7.072 6.431 8.152 8.119
Change - 115.91% -41.15% -19.11% 14.71% -9.07% 26.77% -0.4%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 1,616,304 1,618,208 1,619,647 1,621,558 1,623,047 1,625,109 1,625,109 1,625,109
Announcement Date 17/02/21 23/02/22 22/02/23 21/02/24 19/02/25 - - -
1USD
Estimates
2025 *2026 *
P/E ratio 15.2x 12x
PBR 2.55x 2.35x
EV / Sales 3.22x 3.01x
Yield 4.03% 4.77%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
19
Last Close Price
97.95USD
Average target price
93.37USD
Spread / Average Target
-4.68%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise