The technical support around 195.5 EUR emanating from daily closing prices could trigger a technical rebound for Pernod Ricard shares.
Summary
● The company presents an interesting fundamental situation from a short-term investment perspective.
Strengths
● The company's EBITDA/Sales ratio is relatively high and results in high margins before depreciation, amortization and taxes.
● Margins returned by the company are among the highest on the stock exchange list. Its core activity clears big profits.
● Over the past year, analysts have regularly revised upwards their sales forecast for the company.
● Sales forecast by analysts have been recently revised upwards.
● Over the past four months, analysts' average price target has been revised upwards significantly.
● Predictions on business development from analysts polled by Standard & Poor's are tight. This results from either a good visibility into core activities or accurate earnings releases.
Weaknesses
● The company is in debt and has limited leeway for investment
● With an enterprise value anticipated at 5.87 times the sales for the current fiscal year, the company turns out to be overvalued.
● The price targets of analysts who cover the stock differ significantly. This implies difficulties in evaluating the company and its business.
● Financial statements have repeatedly disappointed market stakeholders. Most often, they were below expectations.
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Pernod Ricard is the world's No. 2 in the production and marketing of Premium and Prestige spirits and wines. Net sales break down by family of products as follows:
- spirits and champagnes of strategic international brands (63.4%): Absolut (12.7 million cases sold in 2022/23), Jameson (10.7 million), Ballantine's (8.8 million), Chivas Regal (5.1 million), Malibu (4.7 million), Ricard (4.4 million), Havana Club (4.3 million), Beefeater (3.7 million), Martell (2.4 million), The Glenlivet (1.6 million), Mumm (0.6 million), Royal Salute (0.3 million) and Perrier-Jouët (0.3 million);
- local strategic brands' spirits (17.7%): Seagram's, Kahlua, Olmeca, Seagram's Gin, Ramazzotti, Imperial, Pastis 51 and Clan Campbell brands, etc.;
- speciality brand's craft spirits (6.2%): Italicus, Lillet, Pernod, Suze, Augier, Malfy, Jefferson's, Powers and Redbreast brands, etc.;
- strategic wines (3.9%): Jacob's Creek, Kenwood, Brancott Estate, Campo Viejo, Church Road, George, St Hugo, Stoneleigh, Ysios and Wyndham brands;
- other (8.8%).
At the end of June 2023, the group has 96 production sites worldwide.
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: Europe (28.5%), Americas (28.7%) and other (42.8%).