Projected Income Statement: Pernod Ricard

Forecast Balance Sheet: Pernod Ricard

Fiscal Period: June 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net Debt 1 8,424 7,452 8,657 10,273 10,951 10,626 10,324 10,075
Change - -11.54% 16.17% 18.67% 6.6% -2.97% -2.84% -2.41%
Announcement Date 02/09/20 01/09/21 01/09/22 31/08/23 29/08/24 - - -
1EUR in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Pernod Ricard

Fiscal Period: June 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CAPEX 1 352 370 481 610 766 712.5 666.8 616.4
Change - 5.11% 30% 26.82% 25.57% -6.99% -6.41% -7.57%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 830 1,628 1,813 1,431 963 1,108 1,404 1,438
Change - 96.14% 11.36% -21.07% -32.7% 15.11% 26.64% 2.43%
Announcement Date 02/09/20 01/09/21 01/09/22 31/08/23 29/08/24 - - -
1EUR in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Pernod Ricard

Fiscal Period: June 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 30.89% 31.62% 31.82% 31.02% 30.67% 30.14% 30.29% 30.46%
EBIT Margin (%) 26.75% 27.46% 28.26% 27.59% 26.87% 26.46% 26.33% 26.54%
EBT Margin (%) 7.2% 22.51% 25.27% 24.17% 19.59% 21.71% 22.61% 23.12%
Net margin (%) 3.89% 14.79% 18.65% 18.64% 12.73% 15.57% 16.24% 16.32%
FCF margin (%) 9.82% 18.45% 16.94% 11.79% 8.3% 10.06% 13.14% 13.07%
FCF / Net Income (%) 252.28% 124.75% 90.83% 63.26% 65.24% 64.59% 80.93% 80.09%

Profitability

        
ROA 4.6% 5.06% 5.86% 6.35% 5.2% 4.61% 4.51% 4.75%
ROE 9.61% 11.2% 12.97% 14.78% 12.71% 10.95% 10.31% 10.39%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 3.23x 2.67x 2.54x 2.73x 3.08x 3.2x 3.19x 3.01x
Debt / Free cash flow 10.15x 4.58x 4.77x 7.18x 11.37x 9.59x 7.36x 7.01x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 4.17% 4.19% 4.49% 5.03% 6.6% 6.46% 6.24% 5.6%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 13.49% 13.26% 14.13% 16.2% 21.54% 21.45% 20.62% 18.39%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 42.41% 22.73% 26.53% 42.63% 79.54% 64.28% 47.5% 42.87%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 4.473 7.64 8.833 7.914 - 8.332 9.091 8.967
Change - 70.81% 15.61% -10.4% - - 9.11% -1.36%
Dividend per Share 1 2.66 3.12 4.12 4.7 4.7 4.444 4.289 4.345
Change - 17.29% 32.05% 14.08% 0% -5.44% -3.5% 1.31%
Book Value Per Share 1 52.63 56.63 61.81 61.48 62.17 64.59 66.53 69.07
Change - 7.6% 9.16% -0.53% 1.11% 3.89% 3.01% 3.82%
EPS 1 1.246 4.99 7.685 8.806 5.83 6.768 6.835 7.081
Change - 300.5% 54.01% 14.58% -33.8% 16.09% 1% 3.6%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 262,811 260,829 259,563 256,132 250,009 251,623 251,623 251,623
Announcement Date 02/09/20 01/09/21 01/09/22 31/08/23 29/08/24 - - -
1EUR
Estimates
2025 *2026 *
P/E ratio 13.1x 12.9x
PBR 1.37x 1.33x
EV / Sales 2.98x 3.05x
Yield 5.03% 4.85%
More valuation ratios * Estimated data

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG MSCI
AA
More Ratings
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
21
Last Close Price
88.42EUR
Average target price
113.33EUR
Spread / Average Target
+28.18%
Consensus

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

  1. Stock Market
  2. Equities
  3. RI Stock
  4. Financials Pernod Ricard