Bank of England Holds Key Rate Steady; U.S. Jobs Report Out Today; Sam Bankman-Fried Is Convicted By James Christie

Good day. The Bank of England held its benchmark rate at 5.25%, with six members of the Monetary Policy Committee voting to keep it steady and three voting for an increase to 5.5%. The BOE has now followed both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in leaving its key rate unchanged. All three central banks have decided against an increase in borrowing costs for the first time since December 2021, when the BOE became the first to start raising its key rate. Today, the U.S. Labor Department releases the jobs report for October. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect hiring to have eased, a potential sign the U.S. economy is starting to slow after a red-hot summer. Meanwhile, FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted of stealing billions of dollars from customers of the doomed crypto exchange, in what prosecutors called one of the biggest financial frauds in U.S. history.

Now on to today's news and analysis.

Top News What to Watch in Friday's Jobs Report

Employers pulled back on hiring in October while handing out smaller annual raises, analysts said, which would be indications the labor market is slowly losing momentum.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimate employers added 170,000 jobs in October, down from a surprisingly strong 336,000 new jobs in September. The strike against Detroit automakers could account for some of the decline because striking workers aren't counted on payrolls. Economists see the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.8%.

Bank of England Leaves Key Interest Rate at 5.25%

The Bank of England left its key interest rate unchanged for the second straight meeting, but said officials don't expect to ease policy soon . The bank also warned it may have to raise its key rate again if inflation is higher than it expects.

U.S. Economy The Fight Over Return-to-Office Is Turning Into a Disability Dispute

The return-to-office battle between workers and employers is entering a more combative phase , with employees filing more charges of disability discrimination, and an increasing share of the charges are based on mental-health conditions.

UAW's Six-Week Strike Barely a Speed Bump for Jeep's Hometown

Toledo, home to Jeep since World War II, largely shrugged off a six-week strike that mothballed a hulking factory with thousands of workers, because its economy depends much less on automaking than in the past.

Car Companies Agree to Pay Striking Workers in Unusual UAW Win The UAW Beat Detroit. Tesla Will Be a Different Beast. Key Developments Around the World It's U.S. vs. China in an Increasingly Divided World Economy

China passed a significant milestone last fall: For the first time since its economic opening more than four decades ago, it traded more with developing countries than the U.S., Europe and Japan combined. It was one of the clearest signs yet that China and the West are going in different directions as tensions increase over trade, technology, security and other thorny issues.

Is Globalization in Decline? A New Number Contradicts the Consensus Financial Regulation Roundup Sam Bankman-Fried Is Convicted in FTX Collapse

A New York federal jury convicted Sam Bankman-Fried of all seven counts he faced . The verdict capped the stunning fall of the onetime crypto king, whose shaggy-haired, boy-genius persona helped catapult FTX into a powerhouse trading platform that sponsored sports teams and ran glitzy ads featuring football great Tom Brady and comedian Larry David.

IRS Defeats 'Project Soy' Tax Maneuver

The Internal Revenue Service won a $109 million victory in federal court this week that will help the tax agency combat aggressive corporate tax maneuvers and collect more money from other companies.

The Way You Pay to Buy or Sell a Home Is About to Change

Home buyers and sellers face the prospect of major changes to the amount and the ways they pay their real-estate agents, following Tuesday's historic verdict against the National Association of Realtors and large residential brokerages.

Uber, Lyft to Pay New York $328 Million Over Wage-Theft Claims

New York Attorney General Letitia James said Uber will pay $290 million while Lyft will pay $38 million to resolve claims that their policies withheld pay from drivers and prevented them from receiving valuable benefits.

Forward Guidance Friday (all times ET)

8:30 a.m.: U.S. employment report for October; Canada labor force survey for October;

10 a.m.: ISM Report on Business Services PMI for October

Monday

4 a.m.: Eurozone services PMI for October

10 a.m.: The Conference Board Employment Trends Index for October

10:30 a.m.: Bank of Canada market participants survey

12 p.m.: Virtual Q&A with Bank of England's Pill

2 p.m.: Federal Reserve senior loan officer opinion survey on bank lending practices

10:30 p.m.: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision

Research Small Businesses in U.S. Still Face Tight Labor Market

Small-business owners in the U.S. are still dealing with a tight labor market, the National Federation of Independent Business said in its October Small Business Jobs Report. On a seasonally adjusted basis, 43% of owners reported job openings they couldn't fill in the month, NFIB said. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said "labor demand is still strong and small-business owners are working hard to maintain competitive compensation to retain workers and fill critical open positions. Labor quality is still a top problem among small businesses." A seasonally adjusted net 17% of small-business owners said they were planning to create new jobs in the next three months, according to NFIB.

-Stephen Nakrosis

Commentary In the Long Run, Investing Is All About the Economy*

*Aside from government debt and the Federal Reserve, that is...Wednesday provided a perfect demonstration of the three most important issues facing markets: the economy, government spending and the Federal Reserve.

Why You Might Get Cheap Gas for Christmas

A barrel of crude oil will always yield some mix of lighter and heavier fuel, meaning that as long as diesel prices remain high, refiners will keep converting crude oil to diesel, creating additional gasoline in the process, Jinjoo Lee writes.

Executive Insights

Here is our weekly roundup of stories from across WSJ Pro that we think you'll find useful. They are unlocked for WSJ subscribers.

Layoffs, budget cuts and general skimping are putting pressure on cybersecurity teams, which are pausing hiring and tech investment . Wall Street firms are struggling to capture staff communications as regulators require while the ways employees talk to each other change. The collapse of one of the largest U.S. trucking companies is propping up competitors in a lean freight market . Listen to Ulta Beauty's chief marketing officer discuss how the right price strategy [https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://open.spotify.com/episode/1VUeRUfSeyzJ12o8yetv8f__;!!F0Stn7g!CScYQCcevNt7paTXjYZK3xcnbbm6Y2fJYCZL7vXnzwZsgdUtOC2b5w15lpVd659I8IFkQ2_iuA7Yncybu8kzEpGxfyCBkSwa5GZ7480f$ ] can play into beauty consumers' desire to experiment, even in an inflationary environment. Basis Points Mortgage rates in the U.S. fell for the first time in two months, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 7.76% as of Nov. 2, down 3 basis points from the previous week according to Freddie Mac. A year ago, the 30-year averaged 6.95%. The average rate on the 15-year mortgage was 7.03%, unchanged from the prior week. The 15-year was at 6.29% a year ago. (MarketWatch) Worker productivity in the U.S. rose at a 4.7% annual clip in the third quarter, the fastest rate since the third quarter of 2020, the government said Thursday. Unit-labor costs, a key measure of wages, fell 0.8% in the third quarter, the first decline since the fourth quarter of last year. (MarketWatch) Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. last week rose by 5,000 from the prior week to a seven-week high of 217,000, suggesting some softening in a sturdy U.S. labor market. (MarketWatch) Holiday spending in the U.S. this month and in December will grow 3% to 4% to between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion, compared with the same period last year, a pace similar to the average 3.6% increase from 2010 to 2019, the National Retail Federation forecasts. (Dow Jones Newswires) Feedback Loop

This newsletter is compiled by James Christie in San Francisco.

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11-03-23 0715ET