As stated in the introduction, this week's real highlight is the publication of may's pce inflation, a key parameter for the federal reserve. this statistic has the power to shed some light on the economic outlook: will it confirm the markets' preferred scenario that inflation is quietly heading towards the ideal level of 2%? For number crunchers, core pce inflation is expected to rise by 0.1% in april and may, according to economists. Watch out for any unpleasant surprises, which could motivate Jerome Powell and his colleagues to maintain a cautious stance and raise the threat of a strategic status quo on key rates in september. At this stage, cme's fedwatch tool shows a 65% probability of a first rate cut in september.
 
In addition to US inflation, financial attention is on political news, particularly the first face-off between Joe Biden and Donald Trump since 2020. Has the debate favored the former republican president? At least, that's what is emerging from observer analyses, who note that the probability of a trump victory in the next election increased last night. This is enough to trigger some tension at the opening of the chinese stock markets, as a trump 2.0 presidency would likely mark the return of greater american protectionism. On the political front, Ursula Von Der Leyen has been reappointed president of the european commission and is running for a second term.
 
Financial markets experienced a downturn yesterday, particularly in Europe, where stock markets faced pressure ahead of the French parliamentary elections. The yield on French debt has returned close to the level it reached following the announcement of the National Assembly's dissolution, standing at 3.20%. The risk premium demanded by investors for holding French bonds has also risen. The spread between French OAT and German Bund yields has widened to 80 basis points. These tensions are impacting the Paris Bourse, which fell by 1.03%, while the German Dax saw a modest increase of 0.28%. In the US, equities showed mixed results with minor daily gains, such as the S&P 500, which rose by 0.09%.
 
Outside of the tech sector, the energy sector, particularly oil companies, is currently the favored choice in both Europe and the US. Energy has regained prominence in the economic landscape due to rising oil prices and its status as a safe investment option when other choices are unclear.

In the Asia-Pacific region, Tokyo advanced by 0.46%, ending the month of June with an increase of around 2.2%. The yen continued its slide to 161 USD, marking a 37-year low. Initially in the red, Chinese indexes rebounded, with the Hang Seng up 0.51%. Elsewhere, Australia's ASX hovered around equilibrium, while India and South Korea gained 0.36% and 0.25% respectively. 

Today’s economic highlights:

At 8:30am, there was Core PCE inflation in the United States. Financial analysts will also take note of US household spending and incomes, before the Chicago PMI (9:45am) and revised consumer sentiment (10:00am). Full agenda here.

The dollar decreases slightly to 0.9332 EUR and 0.7998 GBP. The ounce of gold rises to USD 2,337. Oil resumes its ascent, with North Sea Brent at 85.57 USD a barrel and US light crude WTI at 81.88 USD. The yield on 10-year US debt reached 4.32%. Bitcoin stabilizes at around 61,400 USD.

In corporate news:

  • Nike announced thursday evening that it anticipates an unexpected decline in its revenue for the 2025 fiscal year due to a decrease in demand for its sports shoes and increased competition from brands like "on" and "hoka". in pre-market trading, nike shares are down 14.2%, while its competitor under armour falls 2.6%.
  • Trump media & technology group, phunware, rumble - groups linked to former us president donald trump are rising by 1% to 8% in pre-market trading following the first debate ahead of the november presidential election in the us, during which the democratic camp was stunned by joe biden's performance against the businessman, a candidate for the republican camp.
  • Apple is up 0.7% in pre-market trading. calculations based on data from the chinese academy of information and communications technology (caict) show that apple's smartphone shipments in china increased by 39.6% in may, confirming the recovery observed in march and april.
  • Microsoft - the american tech giant announced thursday evening that russian hackers had breached its computer systems and accessed staff emails earlier this year.
  • Uber and Lyft agreed thursday evening to adopt a minimum hourly wage of $32.50 for their drivers in massachusetts and to pay $175 million to settle a lawsuit filed by the state's attorney general.
  • Meta platforms - the owner of facebook is considering blocking news content on its platform in australia if the government forces it to pay licensing fees, a meta representative said during a parliamentary hearing on friday.
  • Hewlett Packard enterprise, juniper networks - european competition authorities will decide by august 1 on hewlett packard enterprise's proposed acquisition of network hardware manufacturer juniper networks for $14 billion, according to the european commission's website on friday.
  • Berkshire Hathaway - warren buffett will donate up to $5.3 billion in shares of the investment fund to five foundations, the conglomerate announced friday.
  • Illumina announced thursday that it would record a $1.47 billion impairment charge in the second quarter related to grail, a cancer diagnostic test manufacturer it recently spun off.

Analyst recommendations:

  • 3M Company: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from 102 to USD 110.
  • Agco: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 115 to USD 114.
  • Carrier Global: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from 67 to USD 69.
  • Cummins: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 311 to USD 303.
  • Datadog: Mizuho Securities maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target raised from USD 130 to USD 135.
  • Dover: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from 173 to USD 186.
  • Eaton: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and slightly reduces the target price from 375 to USD 374.
  • General Mills: Stifel maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 77 to USD 70.
  • Honeywell: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from 224 to USD 236.
  • Hubbell : Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 418 to USD 434.
  • Ingersoll Rand: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 98 to USD 101.
  • Johnson Controls International: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from 70 to USD 79.
  • Lennox International: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 564 to USD 605.
  • Paccar: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 129 to USD 121.
  • Parker-Hannifin: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from 606 to USD 592.
  • Rockwell Automation: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 312 to USD 293.
  • Sentinelone: D.A. Davidson maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 17 to USD 18.50.
  • Trane Technologies: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from 328 to USD 330.
  • United Rentals: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 725 to USD 720.
  • Vertiv Holdings: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 102 to USD 107.