Projected Income Statement: Kesko Oyj

Forecast Balance Sheet: Kesko Oyj

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 1,907 2,104 2,560 2,908 3,406 3,495 3,519 3,511
Change - 10.33% 21.67% 13.59% 17.13% 2.6% 0.69% -0.23%
Announcement Date 03/02/22 02/02/23 30/01/24 05/02/25 05/02/26 - - -
1EUR in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Kesko Oyj

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 276.6 449.2 678.9 675.9 735.7 400.7 391 380
Change - 62.4% 51.14% -0.44% 8.85% -45.54% -2.41% -2.81%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 875.4 466 370.6 332.3 144 676.7 716.6 766.8
Change - -46.77% -20.47% -10.33% -56.67% 369.93% 5.89% 7.02%
Announcement Date 03/02/22 02/02/23 30/01/24 05/02/25 05/02/26 - - -
1EUR in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Kesko Oyj

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 10.98% 10.86% 10.46% 10.09% 9.63% 10.13% 10.45% 10.74%
EBIT Margin (%) 6.74% 6.77% 6.04% 5.45% 5.13% 5.39% 5.69% 5.93%
EBT Margin (%) 6.2% 6.32% 5.21% 3.96% 4% 4.44% 4.78% 4.99%
Net margin (%) 4.97% 5.07% 4.21% 3.18% 3.17% 3.59% 3.88% 4.04%
FCF margin (%) 7.61% 3.87% 3.14% 2.79% 1.13% 5.2% 5.31% 5.54%
FCF / Net Income (%) 153.1% 76.41% 74.78% 87.65% 35.63% 144.76% 136.64% 137.08%

Profitability

        
ROA 8.4% 8.45% 6.51% 4.67% - - - -
ROE 24.1% 23.2% 18.5% 13.8% 15.3% 16.28% 17.54% 17.37%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.51x 1.61x 2.08x 2.42x 2.77x 2.65x 2.49x 2.36x
Debt / Free cash flow 2.18x 4.52x 6.91x 8.75x 23.66x 5.16x 4.91x 4.58x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 2.41% 3.73% 5.76% 5.67% 5.76% 3.08% 2.9% 2.75%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 21.91% 34.35% 55.08% 56.19% 59.83% 30.4% 27.71% 25.58%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 31.6% 96.39% 183.19% 203.4% 510.9% 59.21% 54.57% 49.55%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 2.902 2.303 2.64 2.53 2.21 2.85 2.7 2.9
Change - -20.62% 14.63% -4.17% -12.66% 28.97% -5.26% 7.41%
Dividend per Share 1 1.06 1.08 1.02 1.02 0.9 0.956 1.066 1.067
Change - 1.89% -5.56% 0% -11.76% 6.22% 11.51% 0.06%
Book Value Per Share 1 8.52 6.899 6.93 6.84 7.03 7.281 7.621 7.97
Change - -19.02% 0.44% -1.3% 2.78% 3.57% 4.67% 4.58%
EPS 1 1.44 1.53 1.25 0.95 1.02 1.162 1.314 1.402
Change - 6.25% -18.3% -24% 7.37% 13.97% 13.03% 6.74%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 397,115 397,457 397,770 397,956 398,119 398,327 398,327 398,327
Announcement Date 03/02/22 02/02/23 30/01/24 05/02/25 05/02/26 - - -
1EUR
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E ratio 17x 15.1x
PBR 2.72x 2.6x
EV / Sales 0.87x 0.84x
Yield 4.83% 5.38%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
AAA
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
5
Last Close Price
19.81EUR
Average target price
21.00EUR
Spread / Average Target
+6.01%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise