BONN (dpa-AFX) - On Wednesday (May 3), Deutsche Post plans to present its figures for the first quarter. They will be presented for the first time by designated boss Tobias Meyer. What the Post expects at the start of the year, what analysts say and how the share has developed.

WHAT'S GOING ON AT THE POST OFFICE

After 15 years, Frank Appel is stepping down as chief executive of Deutsche Post in the new week. His successor Tobias Meyer will make his debut at the presentation of the figures for the first quarter. One day later, the 47-year-old is to be appointed the Group's new boss at the Annual General Meeting.

The change was announced around a year and a half ago, and the process has been gradual. First, Meyer relinquished his previous responsibility for the Post and Parcel Germany business last summer and took over Group administration from Appel. He will now take over operational and strategic responsibility in the new week.

And Appel? He never tired of emphasizing at appearances how good it was that an experienced manager like himself was at the helm of the Group in a crisis like the Ukraine war. However, the manager believes that the Group will continue to be in good hands in the future. He had always hoped that his successor would be "better or different" than himself, and Meyer is both.

So far, the new head of Deutsche Post has not made much of a name for himself. In general, he is seen as quieter and more reserved than Appel. He faces the challenge of putting his own stamp on the company. Under his predecessor, the Bonn-based company transformed itself from a German mail service provider into a global logistics group that can hold a candle to its U.S. competitors Fedex and UPS, especially in Europe and parts of Asia.

One of Meyer's main tasks is likely to be to get the business back on its feet in its home market (Post&Paket Deutschland). After all, he was responsible for it for three years as a member of the Management Board. The segment is suffering from declining mail volumes and high costs.

The Group's earnings pearl is now the business with time-critical shipments (DHL Express). At more than four billion euros, it generated almost half of the Group's operating profit in 2022. Speaking to financial news agency dpa-AFX in March, the board member responsible, John Pearson, forecast a strong closing spurt for the segment in the first quarter.

WHAT ANALYSTS SAY

UBS analyst Sebastian Vogel expects the express business to recover. The segment's revenues should prove more robust than the market currently expects, he wrote in a recent report. When the economy recovers, this should translate into improved profitability. His colleague Samuel Bland of U.S. bank JPMorgan, on the other hand, expects that prices in the express business will lead to a rather skeptical outlook for the Group, which in turn is likely to trigger corrections in market expectations.

According to data provided by Swiss Post, analysts on average expect Group revenue to fall by a good nine percent to 20.5 billion euros in the first quarter. Less than a third of this is expected to come from the express business. Operating earnings before interest and taxes (Ebit) are even expected to fall by around a third. Here, the market experts forecast just under 1.46 billion euros, with the Express segment contributing over half.

Since the annual press conference in March, seven analysts covered by dpa-AFX have commented on the Post share. Five of them recommend buying the share, one recommends holding it and one recommends selling it. The average target price is around 45.67 euros, almost five percent above Friday's closing price.

WHAT THE SHARE DOES

The Post share has suffered a small setback in recent weeks. The background to this was the quarterly figures from the U.S. parcel service UPS, which is taking a more cautious view of the current year in view of lower shipment volumes, thus fueling concerns among Post investors as well.

And even before that, investors had to cope with setbacks from time to time. In terms of news, this involved both operational drivers and brake blocks for the postal business, as well as adjustments to the Group portfolio. Among other things, there is repeated speculation about whether the German government will change its stake. Most recently, it is said to be considering transferring the federal government's shares to a special fund.

In addition, Deutsche Bahn is probably considering selling the logistics company Schenker, which could then possibly be of interest to Deutsche Post. According to Noch CEO Appel, the company wants to at least look at a possible takeover if the business is put up for sale at some point.

And what's more, the first quarter was dominated by the wage dispute with employees in the delivery business and distribution centers. There was a threat of an indefinite strike, which was only averted at the last minute. Overall, the share price has risen by almost a quarter since the beginning of the year. Market capitalization is almost 54 billion euros.

However, there is still a long way to go before the share reaches its record high of over 61 euros, which it reached in mid-2021 during the boom in online retailing in the midst of the Corona pandemic./lew/mne/mis/he