Projected Income Statement: China Southern Airlines Company Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: China Southern Airlines Company Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 70,619 182,008 161,192 210,372 119,440 220,121 211,656 198,898
Change - 157.73% -11.44% 30.51% -43.22% 84.29% -3.85% -6.03%
Announcement Date 30/03/22 28/03/23 27/03/24 26/03/25 30/03/26 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: China Southern Airlines Company Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 16,147 11,696 11,369 16,197 17,339 23,094 23,989 15,000
Change - -27.57% -2.8% 42.47% 7.05% 33.19% 3.88% -37.47%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -2,776 -8,231 22,738 9,567 20,870 13,676 16,015 -
Change - -196.51% 376.25% -57.93% 118.15% -34.47% 17.1% -100%
Announcement Date 30/03/22 28/03/23 27/03/24 26/03/25 30/03/26 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: China Southern Airlines Company Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.86% -4.01% 17.46% 21.05% 22.52% 17.63% 20.63% 23.31%
EBIT Margin (%) -14.07% -32.4% 0.55% 4.78% 2.18% -1.31% 4.08% 5.26%
EBT Margin (%) -13.68% -36.24% -0.95% 0.83% 2.64% -1.12% 3.93% 5.13%
Net margin (%) -11.91% -37.56% -2.59% -1.02% 0.47% 0.79% 2.66% 3.02%
FCF margin (%) -2.73% -9.45% 14.22% 5.49% 11.45% 4.96% 7.75% -
FCF / Net Income (%) 22.94% 25.17% -549.23% -540.81% 2,435.24% 626.2% 291.44% -

Profitability

        
ROA -3.73% -10.29% -1.33% -0.55% 0.25% -0.9% 1.42% 3.75%
ROE -17.67% -59.93% -10.64% -4.91% 2.44% -14.52% 12.11% 17.75%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 5.86x -52.18x 5.77x 5.74x 2.91x 6.31x 4.83x 4.42x
Debt / Free cash flow -25.44x -22.11x 7.09x 21.99x 5.72x 16.1x 13.22x -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 15.89% 13.43% 7.11% 9.3% 9.51% 11.66% 11.61% 6.83%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 133.99% -335.32% 40.72% 44.17% 42.24% 66.17% 54.7% 29.31%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -581.66% -142.1% 50% 169.3% 83.08% 168.86% 149.79% -

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 0.8286 0.1912 2.215 1.735 2.109 1.258 2.331 2.558
Change - -76.92% 1,058.37% -21.65% 21.51% -40.33% 85.26% 9.72%
Dividend per Share 1 - - - - - - - -
Change - - - - - - - -
Book Value Per Share 1 3.99 2.266 2.03 1.916 1.964 1.933 2.199 2.668
Change - -43.21% -10.41% -5.59% 2.45% -1.55% 13.75% 21.32%
EPS 1 -0.75 -1.9 -0.23 -0.09 0.05 -0.0421 0.2739 0.5274
Change - -153.33% 87.89% 60.87% 155.56% -184.12% 751.12% 92.59%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 16,948,417 18,120,890 18,120,906 18,120,912 18,120,922 18,120,970 18,120,970 18,120,970
Announcement Date 30/03/22 28/03/23 27/03/24 26/03/25 30/03/26 - - -
1CNY
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E -119x 18.2x
PBR 2.58x 2.27x
EV / Sales 1.51x 1.44x
Yield - -

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
13
Last Close Price
4.990CNY
Average target price
5.959CNY
Spread / Average Target
+19.42%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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