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5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 204.04 MXN | +2.47% |
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-1.27% | +4.70% |
| 02-12 | Arca Continental's Q4 core earnings edge down after FX drag | RE |
| 02-12 | Arca Continental reports 4.5% drop in core earnings | RE |
Projected Income Statement: Arca Continental, S.A.B. de C.V.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 169,314 | 183,366 | 207,785 | 213,632 | 237,004 | 247,926 | 255,533 | 272,155 |
| Change | - | 8.3% | 13.32% | 2.81% | 10.94% | 4.61% | 3.07% | 6.5% |
| EBITDA 1 | 32,147 | 35,406 | 39,622 | 42,382 | 48,695 | 50,180 | 52,043 | 56,202 |
| Change | - | 10.14% | 11.91% | 6.97% | 14.9% | 3.05% | 3.71% | 7.99% |
| EBIT 1 | 21,472 | 25,361 | 30,587 | 34,557 | 39,152 | 39,362 | 41,379 | 44,767 |
| Change | - | 18.11% | 20.61% | 12.98% | 13.3% | 0.54% | 5.13% | 8.19% |
| Interest Paid 1 | -3,476 | -3,293 | -3,615 | -2,292 | -2,990 | -2,843 | -2,901 | -2,376 |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 18,001 | 22,072 | 27,494 | 31,004 | 34,987 | 35,145 | 38,428 | 42,952 |
| Change | - | 22.62% | 24.57% | 12.77% | 12.85% | 0.45% | 9.34% | 11.77% |
| Net income 1 | 10,276 | 12,282 | 15,503 | 17,504 | 19,563 | 19,580 | 21,567 | 23,975 |
| Change | - | 19.52% | 26.23% | 12.91% | 11.76% | 0.09% | 10.15% | 11.16% |
| Announcement Date | 16/02/21 | 15/02/22 | 09/02/23 | 08/02/24 | 11/02/25 | 11/02/26 | - | - |
Forecast Balance Sheet: Arca Continental, S.A.B. de C.V.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 23,241 | 18,957 | 19,156 | 23,110 | 18,969 | 28,832 | 31,793 | 26,990 |
| Change | - | -18.43% | 1.05% | 20.64% | -17.92% | 51.99% | 10.27% | -15.11% |
| Announcement Date | 16/02/21 | 15/02/22 | 09/02/23 | 08/02/24 | 11/02/25 | 11/02/26 | - | - |
Cash Flow Forecast: Arca Continental, S.A.B. de C.V.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPEX 1 | 6,723 | 7,176 | 9,755 | 12,622 | 16,565 | 16,621 | 16,654 | 18,133 |
| Change | - | 6.74% | 35.94% | 29.39% | 31.24% | 0.33% | 0.2% | 8.88% |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 | 21,938 | 23,893 | 20,089 | 17,900 | 21,765 | 17,299 | 20,380 | 25,278 |
| Change | - | 8.91% | -15.92% | -10.9% | 21.6% | -20.52% | 17.81% | 24.03% |
| Announcement Date | 16/02/21 | 15/02/22 | 09/02/23 | 08/02/24 | 11/02/25 | - | - | - |
Forecast Financial Ratios: Arca Continental, S.A.B. de C.V.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Profitability | ||||||||
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 18.99% | 19.31% | 19.07% | 19.84% | 20.55% | 20.24% | 20.38% | 20.66% |
| EBIT Margin (%) | 12.68% | 13.83% | 14.72% | 16.18% | 16.52% | 15.88% | 16.18% | 16.44% |
| EBT Margin (%) | 10.63% | 12.04% | 13.23% | 14.51% | 14.76% | 14.18% | 14.85% | 15.7% |
| Net margin (%) | 6.07% | 6.7% | 7.46% | 8.19% | 8.25% | 7.9% | 8.56% | 8.94% |
| FCF margin (%) | 12.96% | 13.03% | 9.67% | 8.38% | 9.18% | 6.95% | 7.98% | 9.3% |
| FCF / Net Income (%) | 213.48% | 194.54% | 129.58% | 102.26% | 111.26% | 83.03% | 93.15% | 104% |
Profitability | ||||||||
| ROA | 4.24% | 4.87% | 6.03% | 7.07% | 7.36% | 7.06% | 7% | 7.7% |
| ROE | 8.95% | 10.35% | 13.03% | 15.69% | 16.08% | 15.2% | 15.27% | 16.12% |
Financial Health | ||||||||
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 0.72x | 0.54x | 0.48x | 0.55x | 0.39x | 0.57x | 0.61x | 0.48x |
| Debt / Free cash flow | 1.06x | 0.79x | 0.95x | 1.29x | 0.87x | 1.67x | 1.56x | 1.07x |
Capital Intensity | ||||||||
| CAPEX / Current Assets (%) | 3.97% | 3.91% | 4.69% | 5.91% | 6.99% | 6.67% | 6.52% | 6.67% |
| CAPEX / EBITDA (%) | 20.91% | 20.27% | 24.62% | 29.78% | 34.02% | 33% | 31.99% | 32.28% |
| CAPEX / FCF (%) | 30.65% | 30.03% | 48.56% | 70.52% | 76.11% | 96.08% | 81.72% | 71.73% |
Items per share | ||||||||
| Cash flow per share 1 | 16.26 | 17.61 | 17.06 | 17.7 | 22.57 | 18.43 | 21.69 | 23.44 |
| Change | - | 8.32% | -3.12% | 3.75% | 27.52% | -18.37% | 17.74% | 8.07% |
| Dividend per Share 1 | 2.5 | 5.54 | - | 5.72 | 6.3 | 8.541 | 9.124 | 10.15 |
| Change | - | 121.6% | - | - | 10.14% | 35.56% | 6.84% | 11.27% |
| Book Value Per Share 1 | 66.51 | 68.23 | 68.25 | 62.24 | 81.14 | 82.22 | 81.61 | 85.95 |
| Change | - | 2.59% | 0.03% | -8.82% | 30.38% | 1.33% | -0.74% | 5.32% |
| EPS 1 | 5.83 | 6.96 | 8.92 | 10.14 | 11.49 | 11.53 | 12.78 | 14.19 |
| Change | - | 19.38% | 28.16% | 13.68% | 13.31% | 0.35% | 4.7% | 11.05% |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 1,757,085 | 1,758,966 | 1,724,254 | 1,695,097 | 1,696,242 | 1,694,330 | 1,694,330 | 1,694,330 |
| Announcement Date | 16/02/21 | 15/02/22 | 09/02/23 | 08/02/24 | 11/02/25 | 11/02/26 | - | - |
| 2025 | 2026 * | |
|---|---|---|
| P/E ratio | 16.9x | 16.3x |
| PBR | 2.48x | 2.5x |
| EV / Sales | 1.33x | 1.48x |
| Yield | 4.19% | 4.56% |
EPS & Dividend
Y-o-Y evolution of P/E
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
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Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise
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