The Paris Bourse (+0.6%) ended the 3rd quarter on a positive note, but the CAC40's rebound remains "fragile": the flagship index has lost half of its gains since the opening of Wall-Street and is down to 7,160 from 7,203 around 3:40 pm.160, compared with 7,203 at around 3.40pm.
Thanks to the rebound on Thursday and Friday, the CAC ended the week on an even keel, but down -2.5% over September as a whole and -3.2% since June 30.

The quarterly results were even more negative on the US indices, with the S&P500 and Nasdaq down -3%, and the Russell 2000 down -4.5%.
The quarter will no longer end on a low, thanks to the S&P500's 0.5% rebound to 4,320 (from Wednesday's low of 4,240) and the Nasdaq's +1% to 13,330 (from Wednesday morning's low of 12,960).

The indices as a whole failed to budge in either direction with the publication of household spending/income figures and the long-awaited 'PCE' index in the USA.

This statistic was a 'non-event': according to the Commerce Department, consumer spending in the USA rose by 0.4% last month compared with the previous month, in line with expectations, while incomes also rose by 0.4%.
More importantly, the PCE price inflation index stood at 3.5% year-on-year for August, offset by a contraction in the PCE Core index (excluding food and energy), which fell from 4.3% to 3.9% month-on-month.

Inflation continues with the first Eurozone consumer price figures for September.

Annual inflation in the Eurozone is estimated at 4.3% in September 2023, down significantly from 5.2% in August, according to a flash estimate published this morning by Eurostat, the European Union's statistical office.
Inflation in Europe has been falling steadily over the last ten months: after peaking at 10.6% in October 2022, it was only 5.2% in August.
These figures are very welcome, and yields are easing sharply, by -14Pts on Bunds to 2.828% and our OATs erasing -15Pts to 3.3850%.

However, the recent rebound in oil prices has reminded investors that the energy component is highly erratic, and therefore liable to cause sharp variations from one month to the next.

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds - which yesterday had rocketed to 4.70% during the session, setting a new high since 2007 - eased back by -7Pts to below 4.60%, at 4.533%.

The lull in the US bond market is logically penalizing the dollar, which is suffering some profit-taking after reaching an 11-month high this week, allowing the euro to climb back towards 1.0575 against the greenback (the Dollar Index is down -0.2% below 106, but up 0.5% on the week).

Oil prices are stabilizing ($95.3 for Brent in London), unaffected by the modest rebound in world stock markets, while the outlook for the global economy is increasingly gloomy.

After soaring 30% since June, a barrel of US light crude is hovering close to $92 (a weekly gain of +2%), while US oil reserves remain at their lowest in 35 years.


Copyright (c) 2023 CercleFinance.com. All rights reserved.