By Joshua Kirby
The U.K.'s consumer price index for September will be published Wednesday morning, showing how much prices rose in the month compared with a year earlier. Here is what to know:
FORECAST: The CPI is set to rise by 6.6% compared with same month a year earlier, according to a poll of 10 economists carried out by The Wall Street Journal. This would represent a slight easing from the 6.7% rise recorded in August and mark a fourth straight month of lower inflation.
CORE FORECAST: Core inflation--a closely-watched metric that strips out food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile--should similarly decline to 6.1% from 6.2% in August, according to economists.
WHAT TO WATCH:
--SERVICES: Services inflation has been the main factor keeping core inflation elevated in recent months, fuelled by rapid wage growth. If this sector's price growth marks a clear downward trajectory in September, the Bank of England could be encouraged to keep holding interest rates where they are, rather than resuming its previous lengthy cycle of rate hikes.
"Our best guess is that [services inflation] notches fractionally lower--and should continue to do so over coming months as the lagged effect of lower gas prices feeds through," said James Smith, developed-markets economist at Dutch bank ING. Rates will likely continue to be on hold until next summer, Smith said in a note.
For now, though, the BOE continues to labor under the "necessity of retaining a tightening bias given that inflation remains well above target," Nathan Thooft, chief investment officer at Manulife Investment Management, said in a separate note. "Inflation in the U.K. continues to run meaningfully hotter than what is viewed as acceptable for the consumer, as well as policymakers," Thooft said.
Write to Joshua Kirby at joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
10-17-23 0642ET
