9M 2022
Earnings Call.
November 4, 2022
Agenda
1.
2.
9M 2022 Results & Business Update pages 3-22
Appendix pages 23-51
Agenda 9M 2022 Results & Business Update
4 | Highlights |
5-12 | Segment Reporting, Mietspiegel Updates, DW Synergies |
13-14 | EPRA NTA & Valuation |
15-17 | Debt Structure, LTV and Net Debt/EBITDA, Maturity Schedule |
18 | Estimated Free Cash Flow Generation 2023 |
19 | Investment Program |
20 | Final Guidance 2022 |
21 | Initial Guidance 2023 |
22 | Wrap-up |
2022-11-04 | 9M 2022 Earnings Call | 3 |
Highlights
9M 2022 Results | Appendix |
& Business Update | |
1. |
Operating |
perfor- |
mance |
2.
Guidance
2022E
confirmed
3.
DW
integration
Operating performance fully in line with pre-crisis expectations. Q3 stronger than Q2 & Q1.
- 3.3% organic rent growth.
- 2.1% vacancy rate (record low).
- Rent collection remains very high.
- €1.98 Group FFO p.s. (+4.2%).
2022E confirmed in spite of higher inflation, rates and energy crisis.
- Rental income, Adj. EBITDA & Group FFO unchanged.
- Organic rent growth 3.4%.
- Reduced recurring sales volume at increased margin.
- Reduced investment program.
Deutsche Wohnen integration to deliver higher synergies.
- Integration process far advanced with final steps to be completed by year-end; go live 01/2023.
- Final synergy estimate confirmed €105m to be fully realized by 2024E, as announced, plus an additional €30m from bottom-up planning of value-add activities.
4.
Valuation
5.
Robust
2023E
guidance
6.
Substantial
FCF
generation
for
delevering
No larger value loss expected.
- No valuation uplift in Q3 as values moved largely sideways on limited transaction evidence.
- Condo market more stable than multifamily homes, likely driven by the larger transaction volume for condos.
- Small fluctuations are not unusual and can always occur not just on a single-market basis but also in a portfolio.
Robust 2023E guidance in spite of reduced portfolio volume and macro headwinds.
- Increased top line and Adj. EBITDA reflect optimism on rent collection and limited inflation impact on earnings.
- Group FFO slightly below 2022E as higher interest expenses and disposal taxes cannot be fully compensated.
- Lower investment volume but higher organic rent growth.
~€2.8bn free cash for 2023 expected already before potential proceeds from JV partnerships or a disposal of Deutsche Wohnen's Nursing Business.
- ~€1.3bn cash on hand estimated at YE2022.
- ~€1.5bn free cash flow from operating business and proceeds from non-core and MFH disposals (after dividend payments).
2022-11-04 | 9M 2022 Earnings Call | 4 |
Segment Overview
Absolute Growth Driven by DWNI Contribution and Development
9M 2022 Results | Appendix |
& Business Update | |
€m (unless indicated otherwise) | 9M 2022 | 9M 20212 | Delta |
Total Segment Revenue | 4,619.7 | 3,517.0 | +31.4% |
Adj. EBITDA Rental | 1,247.2 | 1,239.6 | +0.6% |
Adj. EBITDA Value-add | 115.9 | 115.6 | +0.3% |
Adj. EBITDA Recurring Sales | 104.3 | 105.5 | -1.1% |
Adj. EBITDA Development | 112.8 | 79.8 | +41.4% |
Adj. EBITDA Deutsche Wohnen | 529.9 | - | - |
Adj. EBITDA Total | 2,110.1 | 1,540.5 | +37.0% |
FFO interest expenses | -361.9 | -267.5 | +35.3% |
Current income taxes FFO | -97.3 | -58.2 | +67.2% |
Consolidation1 | -73.1 | -45.9 | +59.3% |
Group FFO | 1,577.8 | 1,168.9 | +35.0% |
of which non-controlling interests | 62.0 | 15.8 | >100% |
Group FFO after non-controlling interests | 1,515.8 | 1,153.1 | +31.5% |
Number of shares (eop)3 | 795.8 | 613.8 | +29.7% |
Group FFO p.s. (eop NOSH)3 | 1.98 | 1.90 | +4.2% |
Group FFO p.s. (after non-controlling | 1.90 | 1.88 | +1.1% |
interests)3 |
Absolute growth largely driven by DWNI contribution. Vonovia stand- alone +5.6%.
Pro forma combination of Adj. EBITDA Deutsche Wohnen and Adj. EBITDA Rental reflects substantial growth following completion of the integration.
Deutsche Wohnen and strong development contribution drive absolute EBITDA growth already prior to material synergy realization. Vonovia stand-alone €1,580.2 (+2.6%) despite ca. 4k fewer units.
Higher absolute volume as a result of DWNI acquisition.
Increase as a result of larger disposal volume.
Group FFO p.s. impacted by rights issue late in 2021.
1 Based on new definition 2022 without elimination of IFRS 16 effects. Comprised intragroup profits of €-22.4m (9M 2021: €-27.2m), gross profit of development to hold of €-41.0m (9M 2021: €-44.3m).2 Prior-year figures adjusted to new Adjusted EBITDA definition (excluding results from investments accounted for using the equity method). Adjustments: Adjusted EBITDA Total/GFFO 9M 2021: €0.4m. 3 9M 2021 TERP-adjusted (1.067) to reflect the impact of the 12/2021 subscription rights issue for the acquisition of Deutsche Wohnen.
2022-11-04 | 9M 2022 Earnings Call | 5 |
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