Projected Income Statement: Tractor Supply Company

Forecast Balance Sheet: Tractor Supply Company

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net Debt 1 -320 145 999 1,367 1,612 1,607 1,691 1,617
Change - 145.31% 588.97% 36.84% 17.92% -0.31% -4.68% -4.38%
Announcement Date 28/01/21 27/01/22 26/01/23 01/02/24 30/01/25 29/01/26 - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Tractor Supply Company

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CAPEX 1 294 628.4 773.4 753.9 784 894.8 752 768.1
Change - 113.75% 23.06% -2.52% 4% 14.12% -6.35% 2.13%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 1,101 510.3 583.6 580.2 636.8 1,310 944.6 1,061
Change - -53.63% 14.37% -0.59% 9.76% 105.79% 2.22% 12.32%
Announcement Date 28/01/21 27/01/22 26/01/23 01/02/24 30/01/25 29/01/26 - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Tractor Supply Company

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 12.13% 12.39% 12.52% 12.86% 12.86% 12.63% 12.66% 12.91%
EBIT Margin (%) 10.08% 10.26% 10.1% 10.16% 9.86% 9.45% 9.42% 9.66%
EBT Margin (%) 9.12% 10.05% 9.89% 9.84% 9.49% 9.01% 9% 9.27%
Net margin (%) 7.05% 7.83% 7.66% 7.61% 7.4% 7.06% 7.03% 7.23%
FCF margin (%) 10.36% 4.01% 4.11% 3.99% 4.28% 8.44% 5.78% 6.12%
FCF / Net Income (%) 146.94% 51.18% 53.61% 52.4% 57.82% 119.55% 82.29% 84.64%

Profitability

        
ROA 13.07% 13.46% 13.39% 12.55% 11.6% 11.18% 10.36% 11.36%
ROE 46.19% 50.79% 53.83% 52.82% 49.83% 45.18% 42.06% 41.39%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - 0.09x 0.56x 0.73x 0.84x 0.82x 0.82x 0.72x
Debt / Free cash flow - 0.28x 1.71x 2.36x 2.53x 1.23x 1.79x 1.52x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 2.77% 4.94% 5.44% 5.18% 5.27% 5.76% 4.61% 4.43%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 22.82% 39.85% 43.5% 40.27% 40.95% 45.62% 36.37% 34.33%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 26.71% 123.15% 132.51% 129.95% 123.13% 68.28% 79.61% 72.39%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 2.375 1.966 2.42 2.431 2.633 3.084 3.16 3.504
Change - -17.22% 23.09% 0.46% 8.3% 17.13% 3.95% 10.89%
Dividend per Share 1 0.3 0.416 0.736 0.824 0.88 0.92 0.9806 1.042
Change - 38.67% 76.92% 11.96% 6.8% 4.55% 6.17% 6.26%
Book Value Per Share 1 3.31 3.442 3.642 3.918 4.207 4.868 5.464 6.186
Change - 4% 5.81% 7.56% 7.38% 15.71% 10.27% 13.23%
EPS 1 1.276 1.722 1.942 2.018 2.04 2.06 2.187 2.413
Change - 34.95% 12.78% 3.91% 1.09% 0.98% 4.35% 10.34%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 582,487 569,075 552,316 540,571 534,195 528,404 528,404 528,404
Announcement Date 28/01/21 27/01/22 26/01/23 01/02/24 30/01/25 29/01/26 - -
1USD
Estimates
2025 2026 *
P/E ratio 24.9x 25.2x
PBR 10.6x 10.1x
EV / Sales 1.85x 1.88x
Yield 1.79% 1.78%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
31
Last Close Price
55.03USD
Average target price
57.59USD
Spread / Average Target
+4.66%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

  1. Stock Market
  2. Equities
  3. TSCO Stock
  4. Financials Tractor Supply Company