"Developments in recent weeks serve as a stark reminder that the central economic and financial thesis of the last year remains unchanged – uncertainty is here to stay so long as
"We take comfort in the détente between
Highlights of Scotiabank's Q1 Global Economic Outlook include:
Canada : Growth will remain flat relative to 2019, but risks remain tilted to the downside as consumer confidence fell sharply at the end of 2019.United States : US-initiated trade wars have exacted a significant toll on manufacturing and have inhibited business investment, but domestic demand is expected to cushion downside risks.Canada & US Monetary Policy: We forecast that both the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve will cut key interest rates in the first half of 2020 and hold rates at 1.25% through our forecast horizon.China : China's annual economic growth is set to drop below 6% by 2021 on the back of global uncertainties, continued trade headwinds and the economy's ongoing structural transition.- Commodities: 2020 brings familiar risks for commodity market, trade policy and geopolitical uncertainty will remain key drivers for the year.
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Scotiabank Economics provides in-depth commentary on economic, financial market and policy developments, both domestically and internationally. Follow this research on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics.
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