Projected Income Statement: Thai Oil

Forecast Balance Sheet: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 168,451 132,155 149,832 134,617 65,092 78,628 87,068 80,449
Change - -21.55% 13.38% -10.15% -51.65% 20.8% 10.73% -7.6%
Announcement Date 15/02/22 10/02/23 14/02/24 14/02/25 12/02/26 - - -
1THB in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 35,146 31,929 14,504 8,955 10,429 33,280 23,287 11,382
Change - -9.15% -54.58% -38.25% 16.45% 219.12% -30.03% -51.12%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -24,642 11,322 13,584 30,399 38,380 6,509 2,918 20,706
Change - 145.94% 19.99% 123.78% 26.25% -83.04% -55.18% 609.7%
Announcement Date 15/02/22 10/02/23 14/02/24 14/02/25 12/02/26 - - -
1THB in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.77% 9.82% 7.96% 4.5% 4.47% 11.77% 7.89% 8.08%
EBIT Margin (%) 6.62% 8.36% 6.3% 2.76% 2.43% 10.58% 5.39% 5.47%
EBT Margin (%) 4.37% 7.94% 5.17% 2.63% 4.24% 9.18% 4.77% 4.71%
Net margin (%) 3.64% 6.17% 4.14% 2.13% 3% 7.23% 3.69% 3.67%
FCF margin (%) -7.13% 2.14% 2.89% 6.51% 9.7% 1.38% 0.69% 4.32%
FCF / Net Income (%) -195.92% 34.66% 69.87% 305.26% 323.84% 19.1% 18.74% 117.75%

Profitability

        
ROA 3.76% 8.1% 4.5% 2.4% 3.49% 7.71% 3.17% 3.55%
ROE 10.61% 23.59% 11.89% 6.05% 8.7% 19.53% 7.74% 8.43%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 5.56x 2.54x 4.01x 6.41x 3.68x 1.42x 2.62x 2.08x
Debt / Free cash flow -6.84x 11.67x 11.03x 4.43x 1.7x 12.08x 29.84x 3.89x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 10.17% 6.03% 3.09% 1.92% 2.64% 7.06% 5.52% 2.37%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 115.96% 61.39% 38.82% 42.65% 58.97% 59.99% 70.05% 29.37%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -142.62% 282.02% 106.77% 29.46% 27.17% 511.31% 798.19% 54.97%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 5.152 20.69 12.57 17.62 21.85 17.74 11.19 13.18
Change - 301.61% -39.24% 40.11% 24.02% -18.82% -36.91% 17.77%
Dividend per Share 1 2.6 4 3.4 1.9 1.8 4.492 2.79 3.716
Change - 53.85% -15% -44.12% -5.26% 149.57% -37.9% 33.2%
Book Value Per Share 1 59.25 67.4 74.12 73.17 76.98 92.84 96.9 103.9
Change - 13.74% 9.97% -1.28% 5.2% 20.61% 4.37% 7.26%
EPS 1 6.17 15.63 8.7 4.46 6.53 15.53 6.752 7.639
Change - 153.32% -44.34% -48.74% 46.41% 137.79% -56.51% 13.13%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 2,040,028 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836
Announcement Date 15/02/22 10/02/23 14/02/24 14/02/25 12/02/26 - - -
1THB
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 3.94x 9.07x
PBR 0.66x 0.63x
EV / Sales 0.46x 0.53x
Yield 7.33% 4.55%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
19
Last Close Price
61.25THB
Average target price
65.22THB
Spread / Average Target
+6.49%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise