Projected Income Statement: Thai Oil

Forecast Balance Sheet: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 168,451 132,155 149,832 134,617 65,092 78,658 86,419 79,932
Change - -21.55% 13.38% -10.15% -51.65% 20.84% 9.87% -7.51%
Announcement Date 15/02/22 10/02/23 14/02/24 14/02/25 12/02/26 - - -
1THB in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 35,146 31,929 14,504 8,955 10,429 32,646 24,141 12,304
Change - -9.15% -54.58% -38.25% 16.45% 213.04% -26.05% -49.03%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -24,642 11,322 13,584 30,399 38,380 6,509 3,888 22,070
Change - 145.94% 19.99% 123.78% 26.25% -83.04% -40.26% 467.6%
Announcement Date 15/02/22 10/02/23 14/02/24 14/02/25 12/02/26 - - -
1THB in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.77% 9.82% 7.96% 4.5% 4.47% 11.37% 8.12% 8.65%
EBIT Margin (%) 6.62% 8.36% 6.3% 2.76% 2.43% 9.92% 5.79% 5.96%
EBT Margin (%) 4.37% 7.94% 5.17% 2.63% 4.24% 8.9% 4.83% 4.95%
Net margin (%) 3.64% 6.17% 4.14% 2.13% 3% 7.28% 4.04% 4.13%
FCF margin (%) -7.13% 2.14% 2.89% 6.51% 9.7% 1.32% 0.9% 4.6%
FCF / Net Income (%) -195.92% 34.66% 69.87% 305.26% 323.84% 18.07% 22.28% 111.2%

Profitability

        
ROA 3.76% 8.1% 4.5% 2.4% 3.49% 8.21% 3.37% 3.68%
ROE 10.61% 23.59% 11.89% 6.05% 8.7% 19.39% 8.31% 8.84%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 5.56x 2.54x 4.01x 6.41x 3.68x 1.4x 2.47x 1.92x
Debt / Free cash flow -6.84x 11.67x 11.03x 4.43x 1.7x 12.08x 22.22x 3.62x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 10.17% 6.03% 3.09% 1.92% 2.64% 6.6% 5.59% 2.56%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 115.96% 61.39% 38.82% 42.65% 58.97% 58.07% 68.9% 29.62%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -142.62% 282.02% 106.77% 29.46% 27.17% 501.56% 620.85% 55.75%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 5.152 20.69 12.57 17.62 21.85 19.47 13.49 16.7
Change - 301.61% -39.24% 40.11% 24.02% -10.9% -30.71% 23.84%
Dividend per Share 1 2.6 4 3.4 1.9 1.8 4.788 3.137 4.008
Change - 53.85% -15% -44.12% -5.26% 166.03% -34.48% 27.74%
Book Value Per Share 1 59.25 67.4 74.12 73.17 76.98 93.41 97.76 105.1
Change - 13.74% 9.97% -1.28% 5.2% 21.36% 4.65% 7.56%
EPS 1 6.17 15.63 8.7 4.46 6.53 16.24 7.512 8.353
Change - 153.32% -44.34% -48.74% 46.41% 148.72% -53.75% 11.2%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 2,040,028 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836
Announcement Date 15/02/22 10/02/23 14/02/24 14/02/25 12/02/26 - - -
1THB
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 4.37x 9.45x
PBR 0.76x 0.73x
EV / Sales 0.48x 0.57x
Yield 6.74% 4.42%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
19
Last Close Price
71.00THB
Average target price
72.30THB
Spread / Average Target
+1.83%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

-40%: Exceptional extension
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