Projected Income Statement: Supalai

Forecast Balance Sheet: Supalai

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 18,264 - 22,453 29,064 34,200 32,420 32,635 32,194
Change - - - 29.44% 17.67% -5.2% 0.66% -1.35%
Announcement Date 22/02/22 21/02/23 20/02/24 25/02/25 25/02/26 - - -
1THB in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Supalai

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 83.27 79.23 243 141.4 200 366.3 271.1
Change - - 206.67% -41.8% 41.44% 83.15% -25.99%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 3,926 -258.7 -930.2 711.7 5,246 3,211 3,962
Change - - -259.48% 176.51% 637.17% -38.79% 23.37%
Announcement Date 22/02/22 20/02/24 25/02/25 25/02/26 - - -
1THB in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Supalai

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 28.96% 27.59% 23.69% 24.57% 19.4% 21.14% 21.47% 21.16%
EBIT Margin (%) 28.54% 27.22% 23.25% 23.92% 18.52% 18.82% 19.29% 20.31%
EBT Margin (%) 31.15% 30.49% 24.6% 25.44% 21.23% 21.27% 21.55% 22.18%
Net margin (%) 24.25% 23.7% 19.21% 19.84% 16.64% 17.12% 17.6% 18.17%
FCF margin (%) 13.46% - -0.83% -2.98% 2.95% 20.79% 12.39% 14.41%
FCF / Net Income (%) 55.52% - -4.32% -15.03% 17.72% 121.48% 70.38% 79.34%

Profitability

        
ROA 10.13% - 7.21% 6.79% 4.11% 4.28% 4.54% 4.97%
ROE 17.98% - 12.35% 11.94% 7.51% 7.76% 7.89% 8.39%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 2.16x - 3.04x 3.79x 7.31x 6.08x 5.86x 5.53x
Debt / Free cash flow 4.65x - -86.78x -31.25x 48.06x 6.18x 10.16x 8.13x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 0.29% - 0.25% 0.78% 0.59% 0.79% 1.41% 0.99%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 0.99% - 1.07% 3.17% 3.02% 3.75% 6.58% 4.66%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 2.12% - -30.62% -26.12% 19.87% 3.81% 11.41% 6.84%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 2.058 - -0.092 -0.3518 0.4447 1.968 2.125 2.285
Change - - - -282.39% 226.41% 342.43% 8.01% 7.53%
Dividend per Share 1 1 - 1.45 1.35 1.4 1.24 1.268 1.35
Change - - - -6.9% 3.7% -11.4% 2.19% 6.48%
Book Value Per Share 1 21.59 - 25.84 27.23 28.48 29.52 30.41 31.5
Change - - - 5.35% 4.61% 3.66% 3.02% 3.57%
EPS 1 3.63 4.19 3.07 3.17 2.09 2.23 2.357 2.589
Change - 15.43% -26.73% 3.26% -34.07% 6.69% 5.7% 9.84%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 1,948,141 1,953,054 1,953,054 1,953,054 1,886,454 1,886,454 1,886,454 1,886,454
Announcement Date 22/02/22 21/02/23 20/02/24 25/02/25 25/02/26 - - -
1THB
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 7.13x 6.75x
PBR 0.54x 0.52x
EV / Sales 2.47x 2.42x
Yield 7.8% 7.97%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
BBB
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
13
Last Close Price
15.90THB
Average target price
17.26THB
Spread / Average Target
+8.58%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise