SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY COMPANY
By Scott DiSavino
April 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Thursday on forecasts for cooler weather and more demand
next week than previously expected and with an increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants,
including Freeport LNG.
That price rise also came after a federal report showed last week's storage increase was smaller than usual as low gas prices
so far this year has prompted several producers to cut output.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 50 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during
the week ended April 12.
That was in line with the 50-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 61 bcf in the same
week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 61 bcf for this time of year.
The build left stockpiles at around 36% above normal levels for this time of year.
U.S. gas production fell by around 10% so far in 2024 as several energy firms, including EQT and Chesapeake Energy
, delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and
March.
EQT is currently the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest producer after its merger with
Southwestern Energy.
Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4.5 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at
$1.757 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
In the spot market, next-day gas prices at the Waha hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas rose to negative
88 cents per mmBtu on April 17, up from negative $1.13 on April 16 and a near four-year low of negative $2.86 on April 15,
according to data from SNL Energy on the LSEG terminal.
Spot power and gas prices have traded below zero in several parts of the country, including Texas, California and Arizona, in
recent weeks.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 98.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd)
so far in April, down from 100.8 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by about 2.8 bcfd over the past six days to a preliminary three-month low of
95.8 bcfd on Thursday.
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April 26 before turning
warmer than normal from April 27-May 3.
LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 91.8 bcfd this week to 95.9 bcfd next week. The
forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to an average of 11.9 bcfd so far in April,
down from 13.1 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a preliminary 10.8 bcfd on Thursday, up from 10.1 bcfd on Wednesday and
a 15-month low of 9.2 bcfd on Tuesday when feedgas declined at several facilities, including Freeport LNG in Texas, Cameron LNG in
Louisiana, and Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas.
Since Tuesday, gas flows have increased to all of those plants, including Freeport. Feedgas at Freeport was on track to reach
0.3 bcfd on Thursday, up from near zero over the prior seven days.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Apr 12 Apr 5 Apr 12 average
Actual Actual Apr 12
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +50 +24 +61 +61
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,333 2,283 1,909 1,711
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 36.4% 38.4%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five-Year
Last Year Average Average
2023 (2018-2022)
Henry Hub 1.76 1.71 2.20 2.66 3.60
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 10.04 9.85 13.49 13.04 14.39
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 10.75 11.26 12.34 14.39 14.31
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 110 100 147 141 126
U.S. GFS CDDs 59 55 31 40 43
U.S. GFS TDDs 169 155 178 181 169
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year
Week Last Year (2019-2023)
Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 98.9 97.2 97.1 101.3 95.0
U.S. Imports from Canada 7.2 6.8 7.0 7.6 7.8
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total U.S. Supply 106.1 104.0 104.1 108.9 102.8
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.7 2.7 2.7 1.9 2.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.5 6.6 6.3 6.0 5.4
U.S. LNG Exports 12.6 10.7 11.1 14.4 10.1
U.S. Commercial 8.2 6.6 7.3 7.4 8.4
U.S. Residential 11.2 7.9 9.2 9.6 11.8
U.S. Power Plant 27.9 28.0 29.2 25.6 22.7
U.S. Industrial 23.1 22.4 23.1 21.5 25.9
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 77.5 71.8 75.8 71.2 76.2
Total U.S. Demand 99.3 91.8 95.9 93.5 94.1
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2023 2022 2021
% of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal
Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual
Apr-Sep 80 81 83 107 81
Jan-Jul 81 82 77 102 79
Oct-Sep 82 82 76 103 81
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended
Apr 19 Apr 12 Apr 5 Mar 29 Mar 22
Wind 18 16 15 16 13
Solar 7 6 5 5 5
Hydro 7 7 7 8 8
Other 2 1 1 1 1
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 35 37 38 38 40
Coal 13 13 13 13 13
Nuclear 19 20 20 19 20
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub 1.50 1.38
Transco Z6 New York 1.41 1.35
PG&E Citygate 2.15 2.07
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.28 1.27
Chicago Citygate 1.32 1.22
Algonquin Citygate 1.44 1.40
SoCal Citygate 2.07 2.10
Waha Hub -0.88 -1.13
AECO 0.90 0.87
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England 32.50 27.25
PJM West 40.50 31.75
Ercot North 20.50 68.75
Mid C 26.25 19.75
Palo Verde 17.75 11.50
SP-15 15.25 1.75
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Jonathan Oatis and David Evans)
US natgas prices climb 3% on rising LNG feedgas, cooler forecast
April 18, 2024 at 03:32 pm
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