Shahmurad Sugar Mills : VIS Reaffirm Entity Ratings of Shahmurad Sugar Mills Limited - Press Release issued by VIS Credit Rating Company Limited

April 02, 2020 (PPI-OT)

Following is the text of press release issued by VIS Credit Rating Company Limited

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VIS Credit Rating Company Limited (VIS) has reaffirmed entity ratings of Shahmurad Sugar Mills Limited (SSML) at 'A-/A-2' (Single A minus/Single A-Two). The long term rating signifies good credit quality with adequate protection factors. Risk factors are considered variable if changes occur in the economy. Short term rating of 'A-2' depicts good certainty of timely payment. Liquidity factors and company fundamentals are sound with good access to capital markets. Risk factors are small. Outlook on the assigned rating is 'Stable'. Previous rating action was announced on February 27, 2019.

The assigned ratings incorporate SSML's diversified business risk and improving financial profile driven by robust performance of the distillery division. Ratings also take into account satisfactory operating track record and extensive experience of sponsors in the sugar sector. While significant increase in prices of molasses and limited availability of the same continue to pose challenges for the distillery division, increase in average prices of ethanol due to focus on value addition (through sizeable proportion of higher margin drum sales vis-à-vis bulk and ISO sales) and rupee devaluation is expected to support profitability profile for MY20. Sustaining financial profile while further strengthening equity base and market position will be credit positive for SSML.

Business risk profile of the sugar sector is considered high given the inherent cyclicality in crop levels and raw material prices. Moreover, distortion in pricing mechanism of raw material prices and refined sugar also creates challenges for sugar mills. Given the decline in area under cultivation in MY19 and the ongoing year and the resultant decline in sugar production, average sugar prices have increased by 19% in MY19 and 16% in the ongoing year. However, increase in profitability is expected to be limited (barring those players that have sizeable carryover stock) due to significant jump in sugar cane prices and decline in recovery ratio (Tiddi Dal pest attack) in the ongoing year.

While demand and supply dynamics are expected to result in an increase in sugar prices, significant politicization of sugar prices may cap increase in sugar prices. Recent decline in international sugar prices ($336/ton as of 24th March vis-à-vis average price of $413.9/ton in the month of February) is also expected to cap increase in domestic sugar prices given the threat of imports. Business risk profile draws support from diversification in distillery segment which has been the major contributor to profitability over the last few years. However, disruption in operations due to coronavirus outbreak remains a key business risk factor.

For more information, contact:Director Compliance and Rating Analytics,VIS Credit Rating Company LimitedVIS House, 128/C, 25th Lane off Khayaban-e-Ittehad,Phase VII, DHA, Karachi, PakistanTel: [phone]Fax: [phone]Email: [e-mail]: https://www.vis.com.pk/

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