Whoever emerges as the winner of the run-off presidential vote in
Backed by the nationalist government led by Law and Justice (PiS), incumbent President
The authoritarian threat is the incumbent winning another five years in office, giving the PiS-led administration a virtually free hand in governing
Fears have long grown in
In the final days of the campaign, the ruling camp has made noises along those lines. Earlier this week, Poland’s foreign affairs ministry summoned Germany’s charge d’affairs over coverage of the election by the partially German-owned tabloid Fakt.
“We have to think about the media situation in
A triumph for Trzaskowski will most likely end PiS’ authoritarian drive. Instead, it will ignite the fiercest political conflict in
In both scenarios, a big question lurks: will PiS’ subjugating democracy further or Trzaskowski setting the scene for permanent conflict reinvigorate the Left or — perhaps a more likely scenario — further boost the far-right, already a possible kingmaker in Sunday’s contest. Left or right, Poland’s political parties have rarely been anything more than a background to the PiS-PO conflict that has dominated Polish politics since the mid-2000s.
The 1.3mn people who voted for the far-right presidential candidate
Both Duda and Trzaskowski keep appealing to the far-right on their campaign trails. Duda is accentuating traditional family values he says are dear to most in the staunchly Catholic Poland. In a campaign stunt, the president submitted a constitutional amendment banning adoption by homosexual couples. That followed weeks of anti-LGBT rhetoric.
Trzaskowski has spoken more about liberal economics that many on the far-right juxtapose with PiS’s inflated social spending. Wary of the importance of the far-right voters, however, Trzaskowski did also say — even if in slightly less discriminating language — he would not back adoption by same-sex couples. That might cost him some votes on the left on Sunday.
Unsurprisingly, Duda has the unwavering support of the government and the public media, the broadcaster TVP in particular. PiS took control over public media during its first term in power in 2015-2019 and has made them a government propaganda tube, not infrequently similar to media from regimes like
That has only fuelled further divisions in
The resulting curiosity was Duda and Trzaskowski holding “debates” on their own with the rival’s pulpit ostensibly empty. Duda took part in a controlled event with friendly questions reportedly asked by the local people from the town of Konskie — some of whom turned out to be bussed-in PiS supporters and functionaries. Trzaskowski did better by inviting a host of media — including pro-PiS ones — to ask him questions.
But the debates are unlikely to move the devout voters of either man one inch. The
It will therefore be the mobilisation of other groups of the electorate that will decide the election’s result. Most voters who backed centrist and centre-right candidates in the first round declare they will vote for Trzaskowski but the
The
“Duda's voters cannot be sure that they will have their "dream president" for the next five years. But Trzaskowski's voters should not give up but mobilise, [especially if] declarations of Duda's supporters prove exaggerated,” Oko Press’s editor
In one crucial group, voters aged 60 or more, 90% said they would vote. Only 56% did in the first round on
“The declared mobilisation of Duda’s voters is so big that it appears unlikely to happen,” Pacewicz added, pointing to a chance for Trzaskowski to win.
Chances also are that the exit poll on Sunday night will not point to a winner clearly. In that case, a riveting night — and possibly Monday too — lies ahead with the final outcome shaping up as official results pour in from across
©2020 bne IntelliNews
, source