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The federal government and French energy company Engie have finally reached an agreement on However, there is still some ambiguity that will be clarified with legal texts in July for a final agreement in October. This agreement must then be approved by the European Commission. What can we already observe in broad terms?

1. Engie gets maximum bill for nuclear waste, but not for decommissioning

  • Engie knows the maximum amount it must contribute for the waste: €15 billion. Engie has already provided 10.5 billion euros through Synatom. So the net cost to the company is 4.5 billion euros. This amount will not change.
  • The agreement does not cover Engie's obligations regarding the decommissioning of nuclear power plants: the energy company has already provided 8 billion euros, and this amount can be revised every three years.
  • So in total, Engie's commitment is currently 23 billion euros.

2. Security of supply is not yet guaranteed

  • Energy Minister Tinne Van der Straeten (Green) quickly announced that this was a good deal because security of supply will be guaranteed from the winter of 2025. The extension would address a shortfall of 2 gigawatts (GW).
  • However, many uncertainties remain. After years of political wrangling, the timing is tight. Fuel must be ordered and the plants must be technically extended. Van der Straeten is "confident," but Thierry Saegemen, the CEO of Engie Electrabel, did not want to commit.
  • The Belgian government has come up with an incentive rather than a penalty to ensure that Engie meets the deal's deadline. One solution could be the "Flex LTO." In other words, spread the work on Doel 4 and Tihange 3 over several years, carried out during the summers of the 3 years following the priority work in 2025.
  • However, supplies would only be sufficient from 2026-2027 and an additional 1 GW would have to be found according to Elia's calculations, equivalent to a reactor. The story is certainly not over, especially as electricity demand continues to rise. MR is already calling for the extension of Doel 1 and 2 and Tihange 1.

3. The government will share in the profits ... but also in the risks

  • A joint venture will be created, of which the state will own 50 percent and Engie will own the other half. So the profits will be shared.
  • But also the risks: our country will guarantee a selling price for energy (not yet determined). If market prices are lower, the Belgian state will have to pay the difference to the company. If prices are higher, the Belgian state will receive all profits. There is currently talk of a sales price between €65 and €75 per MWh.

4. A lot of time lost...

  • If nuclear power had been extended earlier, say in 2019 as Electrabel requested, Belgium would not have had to pay Engie the maximum bill. The provision amount could have been reviewed and increased every three years.
  • But the future is full of uncertainties. First, there is not yet a technology capable of disposing of the most radioactive waste, nor an established storage scenario. The provision is actually calculated based on a scenario where radioactive waste is buried 400 meters deep, but nothing has been decided yet.
  • To overcome these uncertainties, the Belgian state now has a €15 billion fund that can grow. The final cost of waste treatment and decommissioning is estimated at 40 to 60 billion euros over 100 years. Good decisions need to be made and ensure that this fund is not used to finance other things.

5. An unmistakable sign: Engie is rising on the stock market.

  • With a deal of such importance, it is always difficult to determine who comes out on top. Looking at Engie's stock price, we have an indication: the stock rose 4 percent on the markets.
  • Engie CEO Catherine MacGregor, then, did not hide her relief: "This deal eliminates a major source of long-term uncertainty for the company."
  • On the other hand, environmental groups are clear in their stance: "This could well be the biggest holdup in Belgium's history," says Greenpeace.
  • In the opposition, Bart De Wever (N-VA) strongly criticized the deal. "Operator Engie got its ceiling price in, in exchange for yet another declaration of intent. Until now, the government received(!) millions annually in nuclear tax, but is now saddled with an unlimited bill of "at least" several tens of billions. The price of years of green sabotage... What's more, it forfeits any negotiating margin that was left to stop the closure of other plants," it sounds on Twitter.

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