BANCOLOMBIA S.A. Breakfast with Bancolombia
Equities Bancolombia - Tables & Graphics
Economic, Industry and Market Research | January 8, 2020 |
Breakfast with Bancolombia
Equity Market
COLCAP Index Performance | LATAM Markets Performance* |
1.800 | ||||||
1.700 | ||||||
1.600 | ||||||
1.500 | ||||||
1.400 | ||||||
1.300 | ||||||
1.200 | ||||||
Jan-17 | Jul-17 | Jan-18 | Jul-18 | Jan-19 | Jul-19 | Jan-20 |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg.
Colcap vs Andean Region
INDEX | Close | 1 Day | YTD | YTD | 1 YR | 1 YR |
USD | USD | |||||
COLCAP | 1.664 | -0,8% | 0,1% | 0,5% | 22,6% | 19,6% |
BOVESPA | 116.662 | -0,9% | 0,9% | -0,6% | 27,2% | 16,3% |
IPSA | 4.913 | 1,5% | 5,2% | 2,8% | -5,3% | -16,2% |
SPBLPGPT | 20.475 | -0,3% | -0,5% | -0,7% | 5,1% | 6,0% |
MEXBOL | 44.158 | -1,0% | 1,1% | 1,3% | 3,1% | 5,6% |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg.
*To last night's closing level
Colcap vs Bovespa & Mexbol
Colcap | IPSA | SPBLPGPT | ||
130 | ||||
120 | ||||
110 | ||||
100 | ||||
90 | ||||
80 | ||||
Jan-19 | Apr-19 | Jul-19 | Oct-19 | Jan-20 |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Colcap | Bovespa | Mexbol | ||
140 | ||||
130 | ||||
120 | ||||
110 | ||||
100 | ||||
90 | ||||
Jan-19 | Apr-19 | Jul-19 | Oct-19 | Jan-20 |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Colcap Top Advancers* | Colcap Top Decliners* | |
Equity | Precio de | Variación |
cierre | diaria | |
GEB | 2.245 | 0,9% |
Bancolombia pref | 45.480 | 0,7% |
Davivienda | 45.500 | 0,4% |
Corficol | 31.300 | 0,0% |
BVC | 11.600 | 0,0% |
Equity | Closing Price | Daily |
Variation | ||
Avianca | 1.760 | -3,3% |
Bogota | 86.000 | -3,1% |
Canacol Energy | 11.520 | -2,7% |
ISA | 19.760 | -2,7% |
Cemargos pref | 5.510 | -1,8% |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg. | Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg. |
*To last night's closing level | *To last night's closing level |
Breakfast with Bancolombia
Equity Market
Balance in REPOS on local shares | REPOS and total shares outstanding of the underlying | |
stock | ||
Billions COP
1.760 1.560 1.360 1.160 960 760 560
360 Dec-09Dec-11Dec-13Dec-15Dec-17Dec-19
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Equity | Number of Shares | Shares | % |
in Repos | Outstanding | ||
PFAVAL | 126.222.575 | 7.116.706.674 | 1,8% |
CORFICOLCF | 2.839.441 | 279.912.944 | 1,0% |
CEMARGOS | 9.255.559 | 1.151.672.310 | 0,8% |
GRUPOARGOS | 3.090.490 | 645.400.000 | 0,5% |
NUTRESA | 2.156.689 | 460.123.458 | 0,5% |
ISA | 4.872.426 | 1.107.677.894 | 0,4% |
BCOLOMBIA | 2.132.535 | 509.704.584 | 0,4% |
PFDAVVNDA | 446.389 | 107.993.484 | 0,4% |
GEB | 22.137.390 | 9.181.177.017 | 0,2% |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Our Coverage Universe
Equity | 7-ene. | Last review | 12-month target price | New Recommendation | |
Base | Var (%) | ||||
COLCAP | 1664 | nov.-19 | 1870 | 12,4% | |
Avianca | $ 1.760 | nov.-19 | $ 3.230 | 83,5% | Overweight* |
Bogotá | $ 86.000 | nov.-19 | $ 86.200 | 0,2% | Underweight |
Canacol | $ 11.520 | nov.-19 | $ 15.380 | 33,5% | Overweight |
Celsia | $ 4.480 | nov.-19 | $ 5.500 | 22,8% | Overweight |
Cemargos | $ 6.950 | nov.-19 | $ 9.750 | 40,3% | Overweight |
Cemex Latam Holdings | $ 4.400 | nov.-19 | $ 9.200 | 109,1% | Overweight* |
Conconcreto | $ 454 | nov.-19 | N.A | N.A | Under review |
Corficol | $ 31.300 | nov.-19 | $ 35.600 | 13,7% | Overweight* |
Davivienda | $ 45.500 | nov.-19 | $ 45.300 | -0,4% | Underweight |
Ecopetrol | $ 3.360 | nov.-19 | $ 3.370 | 0,3% | Marketweight |
El Cóndor | $ 1.300 | dic.-19 | $ 3.330 | 156,2% | Overweight |
ENKA | $ 7,57 | nov.-19 | $ 19 | 152,3% | Overweight |
ETB | $ 260 | nov.-19 | $ 470 | 80,8% | Overweight* |
GEB | $ 2.245 | nov.-19 | $ 2.550 | 13,6% | Overweight |
Grupo Argos | $ 18.820 | nov.-19 | $ 22.000 | 16,9% | Marketweight |
ISA | $ 19.760 | nov.-19 | $ 20.500 | 3,7% | Underweight |
Nutresa | $ 25.060 | nov.-19 | $ 34.000 | 35,7% | Overweight |
Promigas | $ 8.240 | nov.-19 | $ 7.510 | -8,9% | Underweight |
Terpel | $ 10.300 | nov.-19 | $ 17.720 | 72,0% | Overweight |
* speculative |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Breakfast with Bancolombia
Local Equity Market
Closing | Performance | Multiples | |||||||||||||
Mkt Cap | Volume | % | Div | 1 YR ADTV | |||||||||||
Index(Stock | Price | PE (x) | EV/EBITDA (x) | ||||||||||||
(US$ mn) | (US$) | Volume | 12 | 52 Weeks 52 Weeks | (US$) | ||||||||||
(COP) | Yield (%) | ||||||||||||||
1 Day | YTD | ||||||||||||||
Months | Min | Max | |||||||||||||
2019E | 2020E | 2019E | 2020E | 2019 | |||||||||||
COLCAP | 1.664 | 110.251 | - | - | -0,8% | 0,1% | 22,6% | 1.342,0 | 1.677,6 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | - | 0,0 |
Avianca Holdings PF* | 1.760 | 536 | 204.481 | 1,0% | -3,3% | -4,1% | 2,3% | 1.035,0 | 2.015,0 | 9,0 | 3,0 | 5,3 | 5,3 | 2,8% | 290.771,7 |
Bancolombia | 43.800 | 13.101 | 975.305 | 4,8% | -1,1% | -0,5% | 35,2% | 32.000,0 | 45.500,0 | 12,5 | 11,0 | na | na | 2,5% | 2.655.446,1 |
Bancolombia PF | 45.480 | 13.101 | 4.498.508 | 22,3% | 0,7% | -0,7% | 39,1% | 32.460,0 | 47.000,0 | 13,0 | 11,4 | na | na | 2,4% | 6.347.738,7 |
Banco de Bogota | 86.000 | 8.703 | 8.386 | 0,0% | -3,1% | 1,0% | 53,5% | 56.100,0 | 90.000,0 | na | na | na | na | 4,5% | 245.260,4 |
BVC | 11.600 | 214 | 12.843 | 0,1% | 0,0% | 0,0% | -2,8% | 10.500,0 | 12.600,0 | na | 14,7 | na | na | 9,7% | 124.752,9 |
Canacol* | 11.520 | 631 | 428.177 | 2,1% | -2,7% | -3,7% | 15,2% | 9.520,0 | 13.000,0 | na | na | 5,1 | 4,9 | na | 355.734,6 |
Celsia* | 4.480 | 1.464 | 86.237 | 0,4% | -0,2% | 1,6% | 14,3% | 3.910,0 | 4.680,0 | 26,9 | 17,2 | 8,1 | 7,1 | 4,1% | 375.832,6 |
Cementos Argos* | 6.950 | 2.797 | 356.760 | 1,8% | -0,7% | -4,8% | -2,1% | 6.040,0 | 8.400,0 | 44,2 | 24,9 | 9,7 | 8,5 | 3,5% | 2.905.885,9 |
Cementos Argos PF | 5.510 | 2.797 | 84.964 | 0,4% | -1,8% | -3,0% | -0,9% | 4.990,0 | 7.320,0 | 30,4 | 34,9 | 10,9 | 11,3 | 4,4% | 171.836,1 |
CLH* | 4.400 | 777 | 9.327 | 0,0% | -0,5% | -0,1% | 23,4% | 3.670,0 | 5.640,0 | 15,0 | 11,2 | 3,8 | 3,5 | 0,0% | 263.382,0 |
Conconcreto | 454 | 157 | 944 | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 22,7% | 307,0 | 592,0 | na | na | na | na | 0,0% | 43.551,2 |
Corficol | 31.300 | 2.839 | 78.883 | 0,4% | 0,0% | 1,6% | 106,9% | 14.832,2 | 31.300,0 | na | na | na | na | 5,3% | 705.676,3 |
Davivienda PF | 45.500 | 6.278 | 1.336.374 | 6,6% | 0,4% | -1,0% | 41,3% | 32.200,0 | 45.980,0 | 12,6 | 10,3 | na | na | 1,8% | 1.377.435,4 |
Ecopetrol* | 3.360 | 42.203 | 6.235.248 | 30,9% | -0,6% | 1,4% | 20,0% | 2.545,2 | 3.415,7 | 10,8 | 9,8 | 5,0 | 4,8 | 8,4% | 7.345.112,3 |
GEB* | 2.245 | 6.297 | 358.936 | 1,8% | 0,9% | 1,1% | 28,3% | 1.750,0 | 2.320,0 | 10,9 | 9,9 | 9,2 | 9,5 | na | 1.311.192,2 |
ETB | 260 | 282 | 30.998 | 0,2% | 0,0% | 0,4% | 1,6% | 194,0 | 300,0 | na | na | na | na | 0,0% | 69.576,7 |
Éxito* | 13.400 | 1.832 | 67.278 | 0,3% | -1,5% | -3,5% | 7,2% | 12.400,0 | 17.980,0 | na | 20,8 | 7,1 | 6,3 | 2,3% | 2.382.085,5 |
Grupo Aval PF | 1.450 | 9.939 | 813.575 | 4,0% | -1,4% | -0,7% | 40,8% | 1.005,0 | 1.480,0 | 10,8 | 9,5 | 9,1 | 8,3 | 4,1% | 1.688.665,5 |
Grupo Aval | 1.465 | 9.939 | 139.845 | 0,7% | 4,3% | 0,0% | 43,6% | 1.010,0 | 1.470,0 | 10,9 | 9,6 | 9,1 | 8,3 | 4,1% | 102.328,6 |
Grupo Sura | 33.700 | 5.831 | 366.876 | 1,8% | -1,5% | -0,9% | 5,0% | 31.020,0 | 37.500,0 | 11,3 | 9,5 | na | na | 1,6% | 2.945.671,8 |
Grupo Sura PF | 29.040 | 5.831 | 415.571 | 2,1% | -0,5% | -0,9% | -6,5% | 26.280,0 | 35.600,0 | 9,7 | 8,2 | na | na | 1,9% | 1.477.750,4 |
Grupo Argos | 18.820 | 4.581 | 350.708 | 1,7% | -0,8% | 5,7% | 8,9% | 15.120,0 | 18.980,0 | 25,9 | 25,4 | 16,9 | 16,7 | 1,9% | 1.660.034,6 |
Grupo Argos PF | 13.460 | 4.581 | 7.838 | 0,0% | -0,4% | -0,3% | -1,5% | 12.540,0 | 16.000,0 | na | na | na | na | 2,6% | 370.213,4 |
ISA* | 19.760 | 6.686 | 2.371.794 | 11,8% | -2,7% | 0,8% | 36,3% | 13.740,0 | 20.880,0 | 15,6 | 16,4 | 8,9 | 7,6 | 2,8% | 2.485.648,3 |
Nutresa* | 25.060 | 3.522 | 81.648 | 0,4% | -0,9% | -1,3% | 7,6% | 23.020,0 | 27.180,0 | 16,2 | 11,3 | 9,0 | 8,0 | 2,4% | 1.198.557,1 |
Terpel* | 10.300 | 571 | 437.800 | 2,2% | 3,0% | 3,0% | 7,3% | 9.050,0 | 11.300,0 | 7,7 | 6,7 | 6,3 | 5,1 | 3,6% | 135.134,4 |
Non-index: | |||||||||||||||
Promigas | 8.240 | 2.857 | 0 | 0,0% | 0,0% | 3,0% | 53,2% | 5.104,4 | 8.432,3 | na | na | na | na | 5,0% | 263.713,6 |
Carvajal PF | 5.300 | n.a | 0 | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 5.300,0 | 5.300,0 | na | na | na | na | na | 4.618,1 |
El Cóndor | 1.300 | 228 | 8.384 | 0,0% | -1,1% | -1,1% | 23,8% | 1.015,0 | 1.315,0 | na | na | na | na | 12,6% | 37.830,0 |
Enka* | 10 | 36 | 0 | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 41,6% | 7,5 | 11,4 | 15,2 | 15,2 | 3,9 | 3,5 | 0,0% | 9.324,0 |
Fabricato | 6 | 15 | 522 | 0,0% | 0,0% | 10,0% | -8,3% | 5,0 | 8,0 | na | na | na | na | 0,0% | 8.009,3 |
Isagen | 4.130 | n.a | 0 | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | n.a | n.a | na | na | na | na | na | n.a |
ICOLCAP | 16.892 | 1.927 | 282.899 | 1,4% | -0,4% | 0,5% | 23,3% | 13.730,5 | 16.951,5 | na | na | na | na | na | 2.764.776,4 |
HCOLSEL | 15.464 | 419 | 0 | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,3% | 27,4% | 12524,0 | 15464,0 | na | na | na | na | na | 1.688.188,2 |
* PE and EV/EBITDA estimated by bancolombia |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Economic Calendar and Forecasts
COUNT RY | INDICAT OR | UNIT | PERIOD | RELEASE | FORECAST | ACT UAL |
Trade Balance | USD Millones | Dec | 7/01/2020 | 6.28e+08 | 1.46e+09 | |
Copper Exports | USD Millones | Dec | 7/01/2020 | -- | 3.45e+09 | |
International Reserves | USD Millones | Dec | 7/01/2020 | -- | 4,0558E+14 | |
Chile | Exports Total | USD Millones | Dec | 7/01/2020 | -- | 6,644E+12 |
Imports Total | USD Millones | Dec | 7/01/2020 | -- | 5,184E+12 | |
Vehicle Sales Total | USD Millones | Dec | 7/01/2020 | -- | -- | |
CPI MoM | Porcentaje | Dec | 8/01/2020 | 0.2% | -- | |
CPI YoY | Porcentaje | Dec | 8/01/2020 | 3.1% | -- | |
Consumer Confidence Index | USD Millones | Dec | 7/01/2020 | -- | -- | |
El Salvador | International Reserves | Porcentaje | Dec | 8/01/2020 | -- | -- |
CPI MoM | Porcentaje | Dec | 8/01/2020 | -- | -- | |
CPI YoY | Porcentaje | Dec | 7/01/2020 | -- | -- | |
CPI MoM | Porcentaje | Dec | 7/01/2020 | -- | -- | |
CPI YoY | USD Millones | 3Q | 7/01/2020 | -- | -- | |
Guatemala | Current Account Balance | Porcentaje | Oct | 7/01/2020 | -- | -- |
Economic Activity Indx YoY NSA | Porcentaje | 3Q | 7/01/2020 | -- | -- | |
GDP YoY | USD Millones | Dec | 7/01/2020 | -- | -- | |
Guatemala Remittances YoY | USD Millones | Nov | 7/01/2020 | -- | -- | |
Trade Balance | Porcentaje | Nov | 9/01/2020 | -- | -- |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Breakfast with Bancolombia
Colcap
Following the expectations of international investors on the developments of the geopolitical tensions between Iran ad the US and the correction of Brent crude back to levels below USD 70 per bbl, the local equity market opened the week with a decline from its historical high (at 1,676.49 pts) amid a moderate transactional dynamism.
The Colcap index declined by 0.76% to 1,663.83 pts, accumulating YTD variation of 0.08% in local currency and
0.46% in USD. The session traded COP 66,023.9/ USD 20.2 mn.
Best performers were: GEB (0.90%), PFBCOLOM (0.66%) and PFDVVDA (0.44%).
Main decliners were: PFAVH (-3.30%), BOGOTA (-3.13%) and CNEC (-2.70%).
Avianca Holdings - New Fleet Plan Implications
OVERWEIGHT - TP COP3.230
The cancellations of 20 aircraft orders plus the total deferrals of aircraft purchases for the next four (4) years are positive news for the company and would allow Avianca to maintain its annual investment (CAPEX) in a range of USD400mn - USD450mn. We highlight that Avianca Holdings' aircraft orders are specifically focused on narrow-body aircraft such as the A320neo used to cover short and/or medium range routes such as Bogota - San Andres or Bogota - New York. This implies that in the long term, Avianca Holdings could reduce its fleet of wide-body aircraft such as the Airbus A330s or Boeing 787s used to cover long-range routes such as Bogotá - Madrid and therefore reduce these frequencies. Finally, we consider that the fleet deferrals carried out are in line with a more conservative vision of the airline sector. In addition, the deadlines would allow sufficient time to assess future market conditions and organize their incorporation of a new fleet if necessary.
Estimation of fleet behavior according to the Avianca 2021 plan
Source: Avianca, Grupo Bancolombia
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Market Flows Report- December
Pension Funds closed the year with a Net Buying Position
Pension funds closed the year with a net buying position in the local market, with a net flow of COP193.270mn. These trading volumes were characterized by a low liquidity season. During this month, the most purchased stock by pension funds was Bancolombia Pref. with a flow of COP52.651m, followed by Grupo Sura Pref. with COP46.457mn, while the best-selling asset was the Grupo Sura Ord., with a flow of COP26.584mn.
Transactions (USD mn)
Different events Boosted oil prices in the Short Term
Monthly Oil & Gas Report - December 2019
- During January it is important to monitor: i) tensions between Iran - USA; ii) the formalization of the partial trade agreement between the US and China; iii) the implementation of the additional production cut in OPEC +.
- Our projections for the WTI and the Brent are USD55.6/barrel and USD59.9/barrel, respectively, for 2020.
- In October the national oil production averaged 880.2 kbod, -0.3% YoY and -0.3% MoM. Meanwhile, production of natural gas reached 1,059 million cubic feet per day, up 1.2% YoY and -4.7% MoM.
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Sovereign Bonds & FX Market
FX Performance- USD/COP y USD/BRL
USDCOP | USDBRL | |
3.600 | 4,40 | |
3.500 | 4,07 | 4,20 |
3.400 | ||
4,00 | ||
3.300 | ||
3.275 | 3,80 | |
3.200 | ||
3.100 | 3,60 | |
3.000 | 3,40 | |
13-Aug20-Aug27-Aug3-Sep10-Sep17-Sep24-Sep1-Oct8-Oct15-Oct22-Oct | 29-Oct5-Nov12-Nov19-Nov26-Nov3-Dec10-Dec17-Dec24-Dec31-Dec7-Jan |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
7,20% 6,80% 6,40% 6,00% 5,60% 5,20% 4,80% 4,40% 4,00%
Var bp
Fixed Income - TES Yield Curve (%)
31-dic.-19 | 7-ene.-20 | |||||
6,45% | ||||||
6,35% | ||||||
6,08% | 6,46% | |||||
6,33% | ||||||
5,78% | 6,05% | |||||
5,32% | 5,77% | |||||
4,99% | 5,27% | |||||
4,93% | ||||||
4,00% | ||||||
jul-20 | may-22 | jul-24 | ago-26 | abr-28 | sep-30 | jun-32 |
10 | -6 | -5 | -1 | -3 | -2 | 1 |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Commodity Prices by Category (Base 100, 12 months)
Agricultural | Precious Metals | |||
130 | Industrial Metals | Energy | ||
120 | ||||
110 | ||||
100 | ||||
90 | ||||
80 | ||||
Jan-19 | Apr-19 | Jul-19 | Oct-19 | Jan-20 |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Commodity Prices by Category (var%)
Units | 07-Jan-20 | Daily | YTD | |
Reference Index | ||||
CRB Index | unit | 186,9 | -0,2% | 0,0% |
Energy | ||||
WTI | US$/bbl | 62,7 | -0,9% | 1,6% |
Brent | US$/bbl | 68,3 | -0,8% | -0,2% |
Coal | US$/tn | 67,2 | -0,1% | -0,8% |
Industrial Metals | ||||
Copper | US$/lb | 279,6 | 0,2% | -1,3% |
Precious Metals | ||||
Gold | US$/oz | 1576,1 | 0,5% | 3,8% |
Silver | US$/oz | 18,4 | 1,4% | 2,4% |
Agriculture | ||||
Coffee Arabica | cent US$/lb | 122,4 | 0,2% | -7,4% |
Wheat | cent US$/lb | 550,3 | 0,0% | -1,0% |
Corn | cent US$/bu | 384,5 | -0,1% | -1,0% |
Sugar | Usd/lb | 13,6 | -1,0% | 0,4% |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg.
Economic, Industry and Market Research
Juan Pablo Espinosa Arango
Chief Economist and Head of Economic, Industry and Market Research
juespino@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7463991 ext. 37313
Economic research
Diego Fernando Zamora Díaz Head of Economic Research diezamor@Bancolombia.com.co +571 7463997 ext. 37319
Arturo Yesid González Peña
Quantitative Analyst
arygonza@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7463980 ext 37385
Santiago Espitia Pinzón
Macroeconomic Analyst
sespitia@bancolombia.com.co
+ 571 7463988 ext. 37315
Bryan Hurtado Campuzano
International and Regional Analyst
brhurtd@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7463980 ext. 37303
Juan Manuel Pacheco Perez
International and Markets Analyst
jupachec@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7464322 ext. 37380
Juan Camilo Meneses Cortes
Central Banking and Financial System
Analyst
juamenes@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7463994 ext. 37316
Karen Stefanny Correa Castaño
Interrn
karcorre@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7463988 ext. 37310
Industry Research
Jhon Fredy Escobar Posada Head of Agroindustry Research jhescoba@bancolombia.com.co +574 4044649 ext 44649
Nicolás Pineda Bernal
Head of Commerce Research nipineda@bancolombia.com.co +574 4042985 ext 42985
Juan Sebastián Neira Orozco
Commerce Industry Analyst juneira@bancolombia.com.co
Paolo Betancur Montoya
Agroindustry Analyst
pabetanc@bancolombia.com.co
Javier David Villegas
Real Estate and Hotels Analyst javilleg@Bancolombia.com.co
Research Assistant
Alejandro Quiceno Rendón
Research Editor
aqrendo@bancolombia.com.co
+574 6048904
Equity Research
Jairo Julián Agudelo Restrepo
Head of Equity Research
jjagudel@bancolombia.com.co
+574 6047048
Diego Alexander Buitrago Aguilar
Energy Analyst
diebuit@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7463984
Andrea Atuesta Meza
Financial Sector Analyst
aatuesta@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7464329
Juliana Aguilar Vargas, CFA
Cement & Infrastructure Analyst
juaguila@bancolombia.com.co
+574 6047045
Ricardo Andrés Sandoval Carrera
Oil & Gas & Airlines Analyst
rsandova@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7464596
Valentina Martinez Jaramillo
Junior Analyst
vamjaram@bancolombia.com.co
+574 6048906
Ana María Núñez Buriticá
Intern
ananunez@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7464318
Terms of use
This report has been prepared by Analysis Bancolombia a research and analysis department at Grupo Bancolombia. It shall not to be distributed, copied, sold, or altered in any way without the express permission of Grupo Bancolombia, nor be used for any purpose other than to serve as background material which does not constitute an offer, advice, recommendation, or suggestion by Grupo Bancolombia for making investment decisions or conducting any transactions or business. The use of the information provided is solely the responsibility of the recipient.
Before making an investment decision, you should assess multiple factors such as the risks of each instrument, your risk profile, your liquidity needs, among others. This report is only one of many elements that you should consider in making your investment decisions. In order to extend the content of this information, we ask you to contact your business manager. We recommend you not to make any investment decision until fully understanding all factors involved in such decisions. Fixed income and equity securities, interest rates, and other information found here are purely informational and are not an offer or firm demand to perform transactions. Also, according to the applicable regulations, our opinions or recommendations do not constitute a commitment or guarantee of return for the investor.
The information and opinions in this research report constitute a judgment as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. The information may therefore not be accurate or current. Future projections, estimates, and forecasts are subject to several risks and uncertainties that prevent us from ensuring that they will prove correct or accurate, or that the information, interpretations, and knowledge on which they are based will be valid. In that sense, actual results may substantially differ from the forward-looking statements contained here. You should be aware of the fact that investments in securities or other financial instruments involve risks. Past results do not guarantee future performance.
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As regards to conflicts of interest, we declare that (i) Valores Bancolombia S.A. Comisionista de Bolsa and/or Banca de Inversión Bancolombia S.A. Corporación Financiera have participated in structuring or underwriting/placing equity securities for Bancolombia S.A., (ii) Grupo Bancolombia is the beneficial owner of 10% or more of the shares issued by Valores Simesa S.A., and Proteccion S.A., (iii) Bancolombia is one of the biggest shareholders of Fondo Inmobiliario Colombia - FIC, and (iv) Valores Bancolombia S.A. Comisionista de Bolsa is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bancolombia S.A. Nevertheless, it has been prepared by our Analysis Bancolombia department team based on strict internal policies that require from us objectivity and neutrality, as well as independence from our areas of brokerage and investment banking.
The information contained in this report is not based, does not include nor has been structured based on privileged or confidential information. Any opinions or projections contained herein are solely attributable to the author and have been prepared independently and autonomously in the light of the information available at the time.
The content of this message does not constitute a professional recommendation to make investments according to the terms of article 2.39.1.1.2 of the Decree 2555 of 2010 or the regulations that modify, replace or complement it.
Rating System
The investment recommendation on the issuers under coverage by Analysis Bancolombia is governed by the rating system presented below, subject to the following criteria:
The upside potential is the percentage difference between the target price of securities issued by a particular issuer and their market price. The target price is not a forecast of the price of a stock, but a fundamental independent valuation made by Analysis Bancolombia, which seeks to reflect the fair price the market should pay for the shares on a given date.
Based on an analysis of the relative upside potential amongst the securities of companies under coverage and the COLCAP index, the ratings of the assets are determined as follows:
Overweight: when the upside potential of a stock exceeds by 5% or more the return potential of the COLCAP index.
Market Weight: when the upside potential of a stock does not differ by more than 5% from the return potential of the COLCAP index.
Underweight: when the upside potential of a stock is 5% or more below the return potential of the COLCAP index.
Under Review: the company's coverage is under review and therefore there's no rating or target price.
Additionally, at the discretion of the analyst, the speculative qualification that complements the recommendation will continue to be used, taking into account the risks seen in the performance of the asset, its future development and the volatility the movement of the stock may show.
The fundamental potential of the index is determined based on the methodology established by the BVC for the calculation of the COLCAP index, considering the target prices published by Analysis Bancolombia. This will be made with the Colcap basket on the dates of calculation May and November of every year. For the companies part of the index but not covered, the consensus of market analysts will be used.
Currently, Analysis Bancolombia has 19 companies under coverage, distributed as follows:
Overweight | Market Weight | Underweight | Under Review | |
Number of issuers with ratings of: | 12 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Percentage of issuers with ratings of: | 63.2% | 10.5% | 21.1% | 5.3% |
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Bancolombia SA published this content on 08 January 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 08 January 2020 13:52:07 UTC
