Financials Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.

Equities

ATD

CA01626P1484

Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing

Market Closed - Toronto S.E. Other stock markets 21:00:00 26/04/2024 BST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
77.75 ^CAD	+0.48%		+2.22%	-0.36%

03-22	Alimentation Couche-Tard Maintained at Outperform at BMO Following Weak Fiscal Q3 Results; Price Target Kept at C$89.00	MT
03-22	Alimentation Couche-Tard Price Target Raised to $88 at CIBC	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: April	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	33,292	31,056	36,664	46,029	48,939	54,626	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	39,537	37,793	43,250	53,325	57,571	66,617	64,901	64,086
P/E ratio	-	-	-	17.6 x	16.3 x	20.1 x	17.6 x	16.5 x
Yield	-	-	-	0.73%	0.8%	0.86%	0.96%	1.09%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.56 x	0.57 x	0.8 x	0.73 x	0.68 x	0.79 x	0.72 x	0.71 x
EV / Revenue	0.67 x	0.7 x	0.95 x	0.85 x	0.8 x	0.97 x	0.86 x	0.83 x
EV / EBITDA	11.2 x	8.65 x	8.64 x	10.1 x	9.97 x	11.7 x	10.5 x	9.68 x
EV / FCF	20.4 x	16.3 x	15.1 x	23.4 x	22.7 x	26.8 x	22.4 x	23.8 x
FCF Yield	4.9%	6.12%	6.62%	4.28%	4.41%	3.74%	4.46%	4.2%
Price to Book	-	-	-	3.8 x	4.01 x	4.07 x	3.71 x	3.37 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,128,668	1,112,692	1,081,155	1,035,691	981,333	961,787	-	-
Reference price ²	29.56	28.19	33.98	44.44	49.87	56.80	56.80	56.80
Announcement Date	09/07/19	29/06/20	29/06/21	28/06/22	27/06/23	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: April	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	59,118	54,132	45,760	62,810	71,857	68,832	75,555	77,342
EBITDA ¹	3,520	4,367	5,005	5,266	5,775	5,673	6,181	6,622
EBIT ¹	2,449	3,030	3,646	3,720	4,250	3,958	4,325	4,755
Operating Margin	4.14%	5.6%	7.97%	5.92%	5.91%	5.75%	5.72%	6.15%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	2,192	2,904	3,359	-	3,929	3,423	3,841	4,178
Net income ¹	1,834	2,354	2,706	2,683	3,091	2,733	2,939	3,121
Net margin	3.1%	4.35%	5.91%	4.27%	4.3%	3.97%	3.89%	4.04%
EPS ²	-	-	-	2.520	3.060	2.830	3.221	3.447
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,938	2,312	2,864	2,280	2,541	2,489	2,892	2,689
FCF margin	3.28%	4.27%	6.26%	3.63%	3.54%	3.62%	3.83%	3.48%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	55.07%	52.96%	57.23%	43.3%	43.99%	43.87%	46.79%	40.6%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	105.7%	98.25%	105.87%	84.98%	82.2%	91.07%	98.4%	86.15%
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	0.3239	0.4002	0.4910	0.5450	0.6200
Announcement Date	09/07/19	29/06/20	29/06/21	28/06/22	27/06/23	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: April	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4
Net sales ¹	14,220	18,576	16,435	18,658	16,880	20,055	16,264	15,623	16,426	19,622	17,209	18,025	18,180	21,771	17,015
EBITDA ¹	1,277	1,495	1,134	1,504	1,455	1,492	1,323	1,515	1,482	1,474	1,191	1,633	1,580	1,677	1,351
EBIT ¹	951.4	1,039	684.4	1,185	1,101	1,029	933.8	1,155	1,112	936.5	775.2	1,194	1,162	1,196	868.4
Operating Margin	6.69%	5.59%	4.16%	6.35%	6.52%	5.13%	5.74%	7.39%	6.77%	4.77%	4.5%	6.62%	6.39%	5.49%	5.1%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	882.3	947.7	-	1,117	1,038	944.1	830.3	1,080	1,061	800.6	481	976	947	1,035	684
Net income ¹	694.8	746.4	477.7	872.4	810.4	737.4	670.7	834.1	819.2	623.4	461.5	791	767	837	554
Net margin	4.89%	4.02%	2.91%	4.68%	4.8%	3.68%	4.12%	5.34%	4.99%	3.18%	2.68%	4.39%	4.22%	3.84%	3.26%
EPS ²	-	0.7000	0.4600	0.8500	0.7900	0.7300	0.6800	0.8600	0.8500	0.6500	0.4864	0.8200	0.8000	0.8800	0.5800
Dividend per Share ²	-	0.0860	0.0853	0.0841	0.1044	-	0.1057	0.1025	0.1289	-	0.1300	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	23/11/21	15/03/22	28/06/22	30/08/22	22/11/22	15/03/23	27/06/23	06/09/23	28/11/23	20/03/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: April	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	6,245	6,738	6,586	7,296	8,632	11,991	10,275	9,460
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.774 x	1.543 x	1.316 x	1.385 x	1.495 x	2.114 x	1.662 x	1.429 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,939	2,313	2,864	2,280	2,541	2,489	2,892	2,689
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	22.3%	24.8%	24.3%	21.8%	24.7%	20.7%	19.9%	-
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	8.19%	9.75%	10%	9.55%	10.5%	12.2%	11.3%	-
Assets ¹	22,392	24,144	27,036	28,086	29,320	22,338	25,966	-
Book Value Per Share ²	-	-	-	11.70	12.40	14.00	15.30	16.90
Cash Flow per Share ²	-	-	-	3.710	4.300	4.750	5.350	-
Capex ¹	1,145	1,408	1,222	1,665	1,804	1,611	1,815	1,899
Capex / Sales	1.94%	2.6%	2.67%	2.65%	2.51%	2.34%	2.4%	2.46%
Announcement Date	09/07/19	29/06/20	29/06/21	28/06/22	27/06/23	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

56.8 USD

Average target price

63.04 USD

Spread / Average Target

+11.00%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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