By Kirk Maltais


--Wheat for May delivery fell 3.2% to $6.65 3/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Thursday, falling to the lowest level since July 2021 as fund traders continued to liquidate positions.

--Corn for May delivery fell 2.2% to $6.11 1/2 a bushel.

--Soybeans for May delivery fell 0.5% to $15.10 3/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Plunging the Depths: Ongoing expectations for an extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative along with Thursday's export sales report showing weak figures for wheat and soybeans helped spur the fund liquidation seen on the grains complex Thursday. "Even with grains oversold, the path of least resistance remains down," Karl Setzer of Mid-Co Commodities told the WSJ during the session. For wheat, Thursday's close is the lowest since July 2021.

Standing Up to Pressure: Soybean futures were able to hold their ground, staying virtually unchanged for much of the session while corn and wheat fell. For soybeans, the cuts made to Argentina's crop outlook by the country's grain exchange helped stem the tide. Lower forecasts for Brazil's soybean output also provided support, fending off much of the fund liquidation seen Thursday. "Our base case heading into 2023 was for corn and bean prices to trend lower to trade back near production costs pending good weather and a stable geo-political environment," Jake Hanley of Teucrium Trading told the WSJ.


INSIGHT


Cut Down: Brazilian crop agency Conab cut its forecast Thursday for 2022/23 Brazilian soybean production to 151.4 million metric tons, down from a previous estimate of 152.9 million tons, based on hot and dry weather in Rio Grande do Sul. This comes after Wednesday's WASDE cut expectations for Argentina's corn and soybean crops, with Argentina's own grain exchange following that with even more pessimistic forecasts Thursday. South American weather is being closely monitored by traders in hopes that export demand will shift to U.S. crops -- although Thursday's export sales report showed little sign of that.

End of an Era: The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says that the long-running La Niña climate system has finally come to an end after three winters, with the climate now neutral and possibly forming into an El Niño system late in the summer or in the fall. The change to the weather pattern comes ahead of the next planting season for U.S. farmers, with some crop-growing states still suffering with areas of exceptional drought, according to the latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor.


AHEAD


-The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

-The USDA will release its annual North American Grain and Oilseed Crushings report at 3 p.m. ET Monday.

--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

03-09-23 1527ET