By Kirk Maltais


-Wheat for September delivery fell 1.3% to $5.73 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday, as the expected squeeze on the Russian harvest due to destructive weather doesn't look to be as severe as previously anticipated.

-Corn for December delivery fell 0.5% to $4.19 a bushel.

-Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.9% to $11.22 1/2 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Russian Revisions: Improving estimates for Russian crops following their bouts of drought and frost put pressure on wheat Wednesday. Russian agricultural research firm SovEcon pulled up its estimates for the wheat crop up 3.4 million metric tons to 84.1 million tons, based in part on better-than-expected yields out of early harvests. "While average yields are expected to decline noticeably… final yields are projected to be higher than initially anticipated," Andrey Sizov of SovEcon said in a note. Lower production from Russia was expected to support world export prices.

Light Work: Volumes of CBOT grain futures Wednesday sank from usual levels, ahead of the Independence Day holiday -- with corn volumes at their lowest since late March, according to FactSet data. For corn, traders are left deciding if the risk for holding corn over the holiday period is mitigated by the lackluster performance of futures in recent weeks. "Don't have to worry about the market falling apart on the 5th this year because it has already fallen apart," Linda Meyer of AgriSource said.

Soy Scramble: China is acquiring more soybeans from the global export market, which traders and analysts see as a potential boost for the U.S. market. China has been actively purchasing Brazilian soybeans, AgResource said in a note -- with tonnages acquired estimated at 750,000 metric tons. The wave of fresh buying comes after Indonesia instituted new tariffs on Chinese goods, along with fears of a possible second Trump presidency that would be expected to lead to a renewed tariff war between the U.S. and China. "Traders wonder if China will soon turn to the U.S. for new crop soybean supplies as Brazilian supplies are quickly being absorbed," AgResource said.


INSIGHT


Positive Trend: The USDA announced a new flash sale of soybeans this morning, with 110,100 metric tons sold to unknown destinations. Some 55,100 tons of soybeans are set for delivery in 2023/24, while the other 55,000 tons are for delivery in 2024/25. The announcement came after the USDA announced another sale to Colombia yesterday, as well as the multiple flash sales reported last week. Lackluster export demand has been a factor pressuring grains throughout 2024, so the new sales are seen as positive.

Ethanol Gains: Average daily ethanol production and total ethanol inventories rose for the week ended June 28, the EIA reported Wednesday -- exceeding the forecasts of analysts. Daily ethanol production averaged 1.064 million barrels a day, up from 1.043 million barrels a day reported by the EIA last week. It's also higher than the estimates from analysts surveyed by Dow Jones this week. Ethanol inventories also rose, climbing to 23.59 million barrels. That's up from last week's 23.42 million barrels, and also higher than forecasts ranging from 23.15 million barrels to 23.42 million barrels. Analysts see rising average production as evidence of summer driving demand, although reduced ethanol stocks were also expected with more drivers on the roads.


AHEAD


-The USDA and Chicago Board of Trade will be closed Thursday in observance of Independence Day. Both will reopen on Friday.

-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

-The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Monday.

-The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

07-03-24 1523ET