By Kirk Maltais


--Corn for March delivery fell 1.1%, to $6.70 3/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday as grain traders embraced a hands-off approach after Wednesday's WASDE report yielded little to move the market.

--Wheat for March delivery fell 1% to $7.57 1/4 a bushel.

--Soybeans for March delivery was virtually unchanged at $15.19 1/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Quiet Outlook: Wednesday's WASDE report from the USDA did little to change the thinking of grain traders and analysts, keeping the market sentiment that supply is tight, but demand is lagging. "Small changes to U.S. balances and global numbers down conservatively didn't do anything to change anyone's mind," said Richard Buttenshaw of Marex in a note. Weather in Argentina - which has been a focus for traders in recent weeks - also is little-changed overnight, not giving much fresh news for traders to work with.

Taking Cues: Profit-taking seen in palm oil futures extended to soyoil futures. The most-active soyoil contract fell 2.5% in trading, leading the agricultural complex lower. In the WASDE report, the USDA lowered its targets for soybean crush by 15 million bushels, to 2.23 billion bushels - this while also lowering the rate for global oilseed crushing by 3.4 million tons. This plus weaker crude oil prices pressured soyoil.


INSIGHT


Close Competition: Brazilian corn exports are usually behind the U.S., with Brazil exporting roughly 30 million metric tons versus 60 million to 70 million tons coming from the U.S. last year. However, this year both countries are forecast to export roughly 51 million tons of corn, according to data from the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service. One reason for this is the logistical issues seen in the U.S. over the past year, said the USDA in a report issued this week. "Production in 2022/23 was smaller than initially forecast and logistical concerns on the Mississippi River in the months after harvest kept U.S. prices elevated and volumes low, especially as U.S. corn competed with competitively priced supplies from other exporters," said the USDA.

In Transition: La Niña conditions lingered through January, according to the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. However, the last vestiges of La Niña are fading as spring approaches, transitioning into an ENSO-Neutral climate, the NOAA said. "There are increasing chances of El Niño at longer forecast horizons, though uncertainty remains high because of the spring prediction barrier, which typically is associated with lower forecast accuracy," said the NOAA in a report Thursday, giving an 82% chance for the climate to be ENSO-neutral by March.

Staying the Course: Fertilizer prices have been gradually coming back to Earth in recent months, following the movement of natural gas futures. The fertilizer price index from Green Markets has shed 27% in the past three months, as a warm winter in Europe has limited the amount of natural gas used for heating there. However, while easing fertilizer prices are good news for farmers, many will be unable to make new planting decisions for the spring based on them, said Ken Zuckerberg of CoBank. "Most farmers have already pre-paid for a sizable portion of their 2023 fertilizer needs based on their crop plans, and thus unlikely to switch acres now," said Mr. Zuckerberg in a research note.


AHEAD


-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

-The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

-Andersons Inc. will release its fourth-quarter earnings report at 4 p.m. ET Tuesday.

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Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

02-09-23 1535ET