By Kirk Maltais

Following a week of surveying farmer's fields throughout the Corn Belt, Pro Farmer says that it expects crop output to fall below current government estimates.

At the conclusion of Pro Farmer's Midwest Crop Tour, which ran from Monday through Thursday covering farmland in seven states across the U.S. Midwest and Central Plains, the firm projects national corn production at 14.96 billion bushels and soybean production at 4.11 billion bushels. Corn yields are expected at 172 bushels an acre, and soybean yields are forecast at 49.7 bushels an acre.

These figures are all below the most recent estimates issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which pegged corn production at 15.11 billion bushels and soybean production at 4.21 billion bushels in its last world supply and demand report released earlier this month, with yields at 175.1 bushels an acre and 50.9 bushels an acre, respectively.

For corn, Pro Farmer's estimates for this year landed well above their outlook for last year, with drought conditions in the western Corn Belt dragging production down to 13.76 billion bushels, with a yield of 168.1 bushels an acre in 2022. By comparison, the USDA's final estimate for corn grown in the 2022/23 marketing year landed at 13.73 billion bushels, with yield at 173.3 bushels an acre.

However, Pro Farmer's soybean outlook for this year is well down from their projections last year, with the firm projecting soybeans at 4.54 billion bushels in 2022, with a yield of 51.7 bushels an acre. The USDA's final estimates for 2022/23 were significantly lower, with production at 4.28 billion bushels, with a yield of 49.5 bushels an acre.

A resurgence of heat this month is making an impact on maturing crops, crop scouts told The Wall Street Journal, particularly soybeans, which were planted mostly later than corn and as a result are more susceptible to adversity.

"Crops are being pushed pretty hard to the finish line here," said Brian Grete, leader of the Crop Tour's eastern leg.

As of Friday, the National Weather Service has issued excessive heat warnings covering 14 states in the Midwest and Delta, including states surveyed in this week's tour like Nebraska, Iowa and Illinois. Other states, like Minnesota and North Dakota, grappled with heat warnings earlier this week.

How much damage this heat wave is doing to crops is unclear, said Grete. "Quantifying the amount of heat damage is virtually impossible," he said.

Most-active grain futures trading on the Chicago Board of Trade are mixed Friday with most-active corn futures up 0.4% and soybeans up 0.8% while wheat is down 1.5%.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

08-25-23 1444ET