Talking Points
- AUDUSD breaks below technical support
- May opening range low in focus 9200
- Limited event risk into weekend
AUDUSD Daily Chart
![AUDUSD Scalps Target Channel Break- Bearish Sub 9300](https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrations/2014/05/20/Forex-AUDUSD-Scalps-Target-Channel-Break--Bearish-Sub-9300_body_Picture_2.png)
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- AUDUSD breaks below key support / 2014 TL at 9300- bearish
- Key support objective now 9200/17- bullish invalidation
- Break targets 9155/70, 9080/93
- Breach above 9330 (bearish invalidation) targets 9405, 9460
- Daily RSI break below 2014 TL support trigger- bearish
- Event Risk Ahead: FOMC Minutes tomorrow
AUDUSD Scalp Chart
![AUDUSD Scalps Target Channel Break- Bearish Sub 9300](https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrations/2014/05/20/Forex-AUDUSD-Scalps-Target-Channel-Break--Bearish-Sub-9300_body_Picture_1.png)
Notes: The AUDUSD has broken below key support at 9300 with the move invalidating a larger channel support structure dating back to the January 2014 low. Our focus remains weighted to the short-side while below this level while noting key support at 9200/17. This region is defined by the April & May lows and a confluence of key Fibonacci retracements/extensions dating as far back as 2010.
Bottom line: look to sell rallies while below 9300 with only a breach above 9330 invalidating our near-term directional bias. Use caution heading into the release of the FOMC minutes tomorrow with USD crosses likely to see some added volatility on the release. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets | Timeframe | Level | Technical Relevance |
Resistance Target 1 | 30min | 9271 | 23.6% Retracement |
Bearish Invalidation | Daily / 30min | 9294 -9302 | 100% Ext / 61.8% Retrace |
Break Target 1 | Daily / 30min | 9325/37 | 61.8% Ext / 61.8% Retracement |
Break Target 2 | 30min | 9376 | Weekly ORH |
Break Target 3 | Daily / 30min | 9405 | May High / 78.6% Retracement |
Break Target 4 | Daily | 9460 | 2014 High |
Support Target 1 | 30min | 9243/48 | 78.6% Retracement / 1.618% Ext |
Bullish Invalidation | Daily / 30min | 9208/17 | May & April ORL / 50% & 61.8% Rtrce / 78.6% Ext |
Break Target 1 | Daily / 30min | 9155/70 | 38.2% Retrce / 2.618% & 100% Ext / 200DMA |
Break Target 2 | 30min | 9111 | Soft Support / Pivot |
Break Target 3 | Daily | 9079 | 38.2% Retracement / Jan, Feb High(s) |
Break Target 4 | 30min | 9060 | 50% Retracement |
Break Target 5 | 30min | 8994 | Soft Support / Pivot |
Break Target 6 | Daily | 8965 | 61.8% Retracement |
Average True Range | Daily (20) | 59 | Profit Targets 14-16pips |
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
- GBPAUD Scalps Target Key Resistance- Bullish Above 1.7920
- USDOLLAR, Gold Setups Target Key Resistance- Breakouts Pending
- GBPUSD Risks Major Support Break Ahead of Key UK/US Data- 1.6820 Key
- NZDJPY Monthly Opening Range Trade- Bearish Sub 89.50
- EURAUD Scalp Setup Favors Selling Rallies Sub-1.5030
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars Wednesday and Thursday this week on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 15:30 GMT (11:30ET)
Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video
original source