The shutdown - the longest in American history - prevented all official data from being released. It has left economists flying blind, forced to rely on private estimates and intuition, neither of which inspire confidence.

With the bullish momentum of artificial intelligence somewhat dented at the moment and doubts emerging about the trajectory of key interest rates in the United States, equity markets may have found their lifeline with the end of the budget deadlock in Washington.

Thanks to the controversial support of a few Democratic lawmakers, the Senate approved a vote on a bill to fund the government until January 30, 2026. The most sensitive issue, the extension of healthcare reimbursements, will be put to a separate vote.

The end of the shutdown in the coming days will have multiple consequences. The one that will ultimately crystallize the attention of financiers is undoubtedly the publication of the many outstanding statistics, because they will provide indications of what the US central bank will decide in December at its last monetary policy meeting of the year.

This was enough to cheer investors. Even tech shares, which stumbled last week on worries about inflated valuations and circular AI spending, regained some swagger. Nvidia, Alphabet, and Meta all climbed in premarket trading. 

Not everyone is celebrating. Health insurers, caught in the crossfire of another White House policy swerve, fell sharply after Donald Trump suggested redirecting Affordable Care Act subsidies directly to individuals. Shares of Centene plunged 9%, UnitedHealth lost nearly 2%. 

Wall Street's broader mood remains ambivalent. Despite one of the strongest earnings seasons in years - 83% of S&P 500 firms have beaten forecasts - stocks have struggled to turn profits into confidence. The Nasdaq just endured its worst week since the early days of Trump's trade wars, suggesting that even good news can feel like bad timing.

Beyond equities, the bond market has shown faint signs of nerves. Treasury yields ticked higher as the end of the shutdown appeared near, reflecting both improved risk appetite and growing discomfort with America's swelling debt. Foreign demand for Treasuries has been waning, and strategists warn that investors may soon demand higher long-term yields to keep lending to Washington. I

Oil prices rose slightly on hopes of a policy resolution and whispers of renewed U.S.–China trade cooperation. Gold rallied as traders bet on possible rate cuts in December, while copper edged higher too, hinting that global demand is still pulsing.

In other news, , Donald Trump has proposed paying $2,000 to all Americans except “high-income earners” to help soften the blow of inflation linked to tariffs.

On the macro agenda for the week: it is still a little early to hope for the return of official statistics in the US, as the machine needs time to restart if the shutdown ends. In Europe, the ZEW index of German financial confidence (Tuesday) and UK Q3 GDP (Thursday) will be the main highlights of the week.

On the corporate agenda, we await the results of Chinese tech stars (Alibaba, Tencent, Netease and SMIC), as well as US companies exposed to AI (CoreWeave, Applied Materials, etc).

In Asia-Pacific, the upturn continued at the start of the week, following the agreement in principle reached in the US Senate to end the budget deadlock. Tech stocks helped several indices climb during the session or at the end of trading: Japan's Nikkei 225 (+1.2%), Hang Seng in Hong Kong (+1.5%), KOSPI in South Korea (+3%) and TAIEX in Taiwan (+0.8%). India (+0.6%) and Australia (+0.8%) also posted gains. Europe is bullish, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 1.5%.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99,437
  • Gold: $4,094
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $63.91 (WTI) $60.35
  • United States 10 years: 4.14%
  • BITCOIN: $106,392

In corporate news:

  • Rumble reported a narrowed Q3 loss and slightly lower revenue, agreed to acquire Northern Data in a $766.86 million all-stock deal, and secured up to $250 million in GPU services and advertising commitments from Tether.
  • Caledonia Mining posted a surge in Q3 profit and revenue, maintaining its gold production forecast for FY25.
  • Sibanye Stillwater and Appian Capital reached a $215 million settlement over a canceled Brazilian mines deal, avoiding further legal proceedings.
  • Petronas, Enilive, and Euglena began construction of a Malaysian biorefinery set to produce sustainable fuels and start operations in H2 2028.
  • Shoprite grew Q1 sales by 8.0% and continues the regulatory process to sell its South African furniture business.
  • KKR, TPG, and Warburg Pincus are competing to acquire Acclime in a deal valuing the firm at over $900 million.
  • Visa and Mastercard are near a settlement to lower interchange fees, potentially altering credit card rewards usage.
  • Pfizer won a bidding war with Novo Nordisk to acquire weight-loss drug startup Metsera for over $10 billion.
  • State Street signed a strategic agreement with Albilad Capital to support securities services in Saudi Arabia.
  • Tesla's Cybertruck program lead, Siddhant Awasthi, has left the company after eight years.
  • Exxon Mobil is modifying its low-carbon technology investments due to sluggish demand and policy challenges.
  • Ionic Rare Earths and US Strategic Metals are collaborating on a magnet recycling facility in Missouri.
  • ANZ Group's annual profit fell by 10% due to legal penalties and other expenses, with a 3% cost reduction pledged by 2026.
  • MA Financial Group is conducting due diligence to acquire Hyperdome Town Centre.
  • ProFrac Holding missed Q3 revenue expectations with $403.1 million, citing weaker pricing and market challenges.
  • Marriott International terminated its licensing deal with Sonder, removing the brand from Marriott Bonvoy after a default.
  • WISeKey is merging its WISeSat.Space unit with Columbus Acquisition, forming a Nasdaq-listed space tech company valued at $250 million.
  • Veon raised its 2025 profit outlook on rising demand for digital services and expansion of its “super apps” across key markets.
  • Vodacom reported a 33% rise in H1 profit as strong growth in Egypt and other African markets offset weaker results in South Africa.
  • RadNet posted a 13.4% rise in Q3 revenue and raised its full-year guidance, supported by growth in advanced imaging and digital health.
  • Newcleo is considering building 20 small modular reactors in the U.S. worth €16 billion, citing favorable regulatory changes.
  • China approved a conditional lithium joint venture between Codelco and SQM, requiring continued supply to Chinese clients.
  • Amazon will run its Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales from Nov. 20 to Dec. 1, alongside special sports streaming on Prime Video.
  • U.S. container imports fell 7.5% year-over-year in October amid tariff-related caution and strong 2024 frontloading.
  • U.S. lawmakers are pressuring Starbucks to resume union contract negotiations, warning of potential strikes on Nov. 13.
  • Gold hit a two-week high as weak U.S. economic data raised expectations for a Fed rate cut in December.
  • China's auto sales resumed their decline in October, while exports hit record highs; Tesla's local sales fell nearly 10%.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): Guosheng Securities Co., Ltd initiates coverage with a buy recommendation and a target price of USD 287.
  • Cubesmart: KeyBanc Capital Markets downgrades to sector weight from overweight.
  • Hubspot, Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn downgrades to neutral from buy and reduces the target price from USD 610 to USD 450.
  • Mp Materials Corp.: Deutsche Bank upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 68 to USD 71.
  • Trex Company, Inc.: Stifel downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 61 to USD 35.
  • Apa Corporation: Evercore ISI maintains its in-line recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 21 to USD 16.
  • Bloom Energy Corporation: Haitong International Research Ltd maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 62 to USD 31.80.
  • Doordash, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 280 to USD 220.
  • Duolingo, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 325 to USD 210.
  • Dupont de Nemours: Morgan Stanley maintains its equalwt recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 80 to USD 44.
  • Elanco Animal Health: Piper Sandler & Co maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 18 to USD 24.
  • Expedia Group, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 220 to USD 270.
  • Microsoft Corporation: China Securities Co., Ltd. maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 480 to USD 580.
  • Onto Innovation Inc.: GF Securities Co. Ltd. maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 130 to USD 162.
  • Sealed Air Corporation: Morgan Stanley maintains its equalwt recommendation and raises the target price from USD 31 to USD 41.
  • Upstart Holdings, Inc.: Mizuho Securities maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 86 to USD 66.