As always in economics, it's all a question of point of view. Depending on which indicator you look at, and whether or not you take energy and food into account, you could logically arrive at different conclusions. To avoid any misunderstanding, it's best to take different gauges into account, so as to get a better idea of the level of price rises. The chart below compares the evolution of eight indicators, some of which are used more by Fed members than others.

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, prices peaked at the beginning of last year and have since begun to fall sharply, from an average of 7% to +/- 4% at present. Since 2024, business has become a little tougher, as some gauges have started to trend upwards, notably the CPI Supercore, while others continue to weaken. Investors who see the glass half-full prefer to focus on the latter, obscuring anything that runs counter to the current narrative. As it is, we can't blame them, as there is no serious data to refute the central scenario underway since October 2022, based on disinflation followed by several rate cuts between now and the end of the year, and rising profits thanks to AI.

As a result, the US 10-year yield is stalling below 4.35%, within a narrow horizontal consolidation band with 4.20% as first support before the key 4.07% level, the breach of which would be the only way to reopen the latest lows at 3.85%.