Yves Sanquer

Currencies: Harsh reality

The resilience of the US labor market and the maintenance of high interest rates are clearly not enough to halt the dollar's downward trend. In the absence of significant developments, let's take a look at an interesting configuration to watch on the EURMXN.

June 09, 2025 at 10:01 am

Rates: Mixed data

While the eurozone has just cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the eighth consecutive time, the US is grappling with conflicting economic data. Doubts therefore remain about the Federal Reserve's next rate cut, even though experts are hoping for one in September.

June 09, 2025 at 09:22 am

Currencies: New bout of weakness

The greenback's performance continues to suffer from the twists and turns surrounding tariffs. After being ruled illegal by the US International Trade Court, a federal appeals court blocked this decision, referring the constitutionality issue to the US Supreme Court for a ruling expected no earlier than July.

June 03, 2025 at 08:24 am

Rates: Sleight of hand

In response to Japan's difficulties in placing its debt, the government has come up with a solution: limit long-term auctions and focus on short maturities. Behind this sleight of hand, which impresses no one and causes considerable concern, it is important to understand that the country is facing real difficulties and that its options are limited.

June 02, 2025 at 02:26 pm

Currencies: Sell cheap, little-used dollars

The attempt to normalize trade relations has just taken a new turn with the US president's statements on European imports. Unsurprisingly, the tariffs were put on hold as soon as they were mentioned.

May 26, 2025 at 02:24 pm

Rates: The Shockwave

The press has reported on the difficulties encountered by the United States during its latest auction of 20-year bonds. However, the earthquake seems to have its epi-center in Japan, which first set the powder keg alight.

May 26, 2025 at 02:14 pm

Rates: equity markets shrug off high yields

The current tension in bond yields reflects the return of growth prospects combined with inflation that appears to be under control. However, this situation should not be allowed to worsen, as it will weigh on equity market performance at some point.

May 19, 2025 at 02:14 pm

Currencies: Moody's not helping the dollar's cause

The surprise downgrade of the US debt rating by Moody's at the end of last week took the financial markets by surprise and is weighing on the greenback, which is struggling against almost all G10 currencies.

May 19, 2025 at 02:08 pm

Rates: what are swap spreads?

Despite attempts to defuse the various current crises over reciprocal tariffs on the one hand and the potential dismissal of the Fed chairman on the other, the bond markets are not so easily appeased. Like Saint Thomas, they only believe what they see.

April 28, 2025 at 02:00 pm

Rates: The ECB stays the course

Unsurprisingly, the European Central Bank has lowered its key interest rates amid weak growth and a tariff policy whose impact is still unclear.

April 23, 2025 at 02:09 pm

Currencies: Major maneuvers

The sometimes contradictory statements coming from the Trump administration are fueling the current uncertainty and continuing to weigh on the dollar while keeping rates high.

April 23, 2025 at 01:50 pm

Currencies: A turnaround

A few weeks ago, we invited you to take a look at the US 10-year curve to anticipate changes in the dollar. But there you have it! That was before Liberation Day and the subsequent reversals that pushed the dollar out the door.

April 14, 2025 at 03:01 pm

Rates: Is anyone in charge?

The suspense lasted most of last week before Donald Trump granted a 90-day grace period to all his trading partners - except China - which dared to retaliate. "Shocking", as their English cousins would say.

April 14, 2025 at 02:03 pm

Currencies: Follow the rates

To fully understand currency movements, it is sometimes useful to refer to the evolution of bond yields, as part of the carry trade. The correlation between the dollar and the U.S. 10-year bond is a case in point.

March 31, 2025 at 02:51 pm

Rates: it's getting tiresome

Fluctuations in bond yields illustrate the difficulties facing investors. On the one hand, fears about growth argue in favor of easing rates. On the other, the risk of a new wave of inflation against the backdrop of the trade war would push the Fed to keep its key rates high for a long time to come.

March 31, 2025 at 02:02 pm

Rates: Powell adopts the dovish attitude

Sometimes it doesn't take much to be happy. Not because the Fed has a clear vision to share, but rather because it has avoided the words that traditionally anger investors: out-of-control inflation, risk of recession or worse - rate hikes.

March 24, 2025 at 10:58 am

Currencies: Waiting for the Fed

This week, all eyes will be on the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve, scheduled for Wednesday. In the meantime, forex traders are loading their guns, and are ready to fire with all barrels.

March 17, 2025 at 02:30 pm

Rates: Inflation eases but uncertainties remain

The publication of encouraging statistics on US inflation is not expected to alter the current policy of the Federal Reserve, which is due to meet on Wednesday. Investors are still betting on a status quo, with rates holding steady at 4.50%.

March 17, 2025 at 10:45 am

Rates: High tensions in Europe as defense budgets increase

Every cloud has a silver lining. After deluding themselves for over 50 years, Europeans seem to be discovering, to their horror, that they will have to provide for their own defense rather than rely on American aid via NATO. Interest-rate markets are tightening in the face of financing needs.

March 11, 2025 at 11:00 am

Currencies: The euro withstands Trump's attacks well

The trade war with Europe has been declared. Until now, the old continent had escaped the wrath of the American president, but now he has set the record straight, announcing his intention to tax European products by up to 25%.

March 03, 2025 at 10:51 am

Rates: Fears of an economic slowdown

For several months, bond yields have been rising on fears of a rapid return to inflation in the United States. In fact, Scott Bessent of the Treasury has declared that lowering the US 10-year is a priority, reassuring investors about the government's ability to cut public spending.

March 03, 2025 at 10:47 am