By Kirk Maltais


--Wheat for July delivery fell 3.8% to $6.61 3/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, with frost damage compounding other weather issues in Black Sea growing areas.

--Corn for July delivery fell 2.6% to $4.68 1/2 a bushel.

--Soybeans for July delivery rose 0.9% to $12.19 1/2 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Cost of Frost: Frost damage in Russian growing regions that has hurt the country's ample wheat crop kept futures elevated throughout the day. In response to the adverse weather, agricultural research firm SovEcon has cut its outlook for 2024 Russian wheat production by 3.4 million metric tons, bringing their estimate to 89.6 million tons. The agency says that recent frosts have compounded problems already faced by Russia's crops, although frosts suffered this week aren't accounted for in this most-recent forecast.

Shrugging Off Strength: In its latest monthly world supply and demand report, the USDA said U.S. production of soybeans in 2024 is expected to hit 4.45 billion bushels, and corn production is seen at 14.86 billion bushels. Both are close to record-high levels, but that didn't dissuade traders from buying into futures that have spent much of the week dropping.

Higher Consumption: CBOT corn caught a lift following the release of the May WASDE report from the USDA, on the upward revision in expectations for consumption of U.S. corn. The USDA pushed that number up to 14.81 billion bushels in 2024, which is up 100 million bushels from 2023. Higher exports were one factor pushing usage up. Traders say that there is ample corn supply to cover the uptick in demand. "The U.S. corn balance sheet is in good shape," Teucrium Trading's Jake Hanley said.


INSIGHT


Moving Forward: Many grain traders are now shifting their focus to the Brazilian crop agency Conab's next supply and demand report, which is due on Tuesday. Traders hoping for tighter supplies expect that today's U.S. report will include a sizable reduction in production in Brazil and Argentina due to weather issues, and hope that Tuesday's Conab report bears that out. What these two reports say about North and South American grain production will set the tone for the 2024 crop season, Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group said in a note.

Oil Tariff: Speculation that the Biden Administration will raise import duties on used cooking oil from China--as part of its slate of higher levies on Chinese goods--sent soyoil futures on the CBOT surging. Soyoil closed up 3.9%, in reaction to the talk, which has been circulating on X, Total Farm Marketing's Naomi Blohm said. The uptick in tariffs on used cooking oil may drive more demand towards soyoil. Blohm adds that used cooking oil is currently cheaper than soybean oil.


AHEAD


--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

05-10-24 1538ET