NAPERVILLE, Illinois, July 10 (Reuters) - Conditions in the U.S. Crop Watch corn and soybean fields rose again last week as seasonably cool temperatures dominated, outweighing some of the underwhelming rainfall totals in western areas.
However, some producers are not yet sure whether their crops, especially corn, will achieve yields as high as the visual conditions might imply after the unusually dry June and the lack of subsoil moisture.
Cool weather should dominate this week, favorable for corn pollination, which is currently under way in at least seven of the 11 corn fields. Below-average rainfall may continue for the western Corn Belt, from Iowa to the Dakotas.
CONDITION AND YIELD
Crop Watch producers have been assigning condition scores to their fields each week on a 1-to-5 scale, similar to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s system where 1 is very poor, 3 is average and 5 is excellent.
They will continue to rate condition, which is mostly a visual assessment, but now they have added yield scores, also on a 1-to-5 scale. These reflect the producers’ best guess of current yield potential where 3 is around farm average, 4 is solidly above average and 5 is among the best crops ever.
The 11-field, unweighted average corn condition rose to 4.14 from 4.05 a week earlier after quarter-point bumps in western Iowa, western Illinois and Ohio, a half-point rise in southeastern Illinois and a quarter-point drop in Minnesota.
Average corn yield starts at 3.95 versus 4.07 in the same week last year and 3.86 in the same week in 2021. Seven of the 11 corn fields are rated 4.25 or higher, and the lowest two, North Dakota and Nebraska, are in the 2-range.
Average soybean conditions rose to 4.11 from 4.05 in the prior week as quarter-point losses in South Dakota and Minnesota were outweighed by half-point improvements in southeastern Illinois and Ohio, and a quarter-point boost in western Illinois.
The 11-field average soybean yield starts at 4.07 versus 3.68 in the same week last year and 3.95 two years ago, however producers noted more uncertainty around this figure due to soybeans’ dependence on rain later in the summer.
Seven of the 11 soy fields carry a yield rating of 4 or better, three are in the 3-range, and the lowest yield score is 2.75 in Minnesota. Perfect or near-perfect scores were issued in South Dakota, Kansas and both Iowa locations.
Most Crop Watch growers report full and plentiful blooming on their soybeans, a potential precursor to high yields.
RAIN TOTALS
Eastern areas picked up the most rainfall over the last week with western Illinois at 2.2 inches, Ohio at 1.8 inches, southeastern Illinois at 1.2 and Indiana at 1. All other Crop Watch locations received under an inch last week.
That includes 0.7 inch in Nebraska, Kansas and western Iowa, about 0.4 inch in North Dakota, only 0.2 inch in South Dakota and eastern Iowa and next to nothing in Minnesota.
The North Dakota producer mentioned that with the forecast temperatures, a couple of weeks of dry weather now would be of no concern after multiple June storms inundated some of his fields. But most other locations lack ample subsoil moisture and could run in to trouble with lighter totals going forward.
Some weather model runs over the last 24 hours have indicated chances for heat toward the end of next week, which could shift producers’ attitudes toward their crops should rain disappoint before then.
The following are the states and counties of the 2023 Crop Watch corn and soybean fields: Kingsbury, South Dakota; Freeborn, Minnesota; Burt, Nebraska; Rice, Kansas; Audubon, Iowa; Cedar, Iowa; Warren, Illinois; Crawford, Illinois; Tippecanoe, Indiana; Fairfield, Ohio. The North Dakota corn is in Griggs County and the soybeans are in Stutsman County.
Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
(Reporting by Karen Braun Editing by Matthew Lewis)
