Financials Origin Energy Limited Deutsche Boerse AG

Equities

ORL

AU000000ORG5

Electric Utilities

Market Closed - Deutsche Boerse AG Other stock markets 14:29:01 05/07/2024 BST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
6.55 ^EUR	+0.77%		0.00%	+27.93%

07-02	Origin Energy Acquires 20% Stake in Decarbonization Company	MT
07-02	Empire Energy Group Appoints COO; Shares Up 5%	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: June	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	12,870	10,285	7,942	9,869	14,477	18,552	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	18,920	15,897	12,581	12,707	17,354	21,664	21,332	20,678
P/E ratio	10.6 x	124 x	-3.46 x	-7.03 x	13.7 x	12.8 x	12 x	14.1 x
Yield	3.42%	4.28%	4.43%	5.06%	4.34%	5.02%	5.5%	4.92%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.87 x	0.78 x	0.66 x	0.68 x	0.88 x	1.15 x	1.13 x	1.14 x
EV / Revenue	1.28 x	1.21 x	1.04 x	0.88 x	1.05 x	1.34 x	1.3 x	1.27 x
EV / EBITDA	5.85 x	5.06 x	6.14 x	6.01 x	5.59 x	5.84 x	5.77 x	6.12 x
EV / FCF	16.7 x	24 x	15 x	34.4 x	-13.2 x	21.3 x	10.3 x	10.8 x
FCF Yield	6%	4.16%	6.68%	2.9%	-7.57%	4.7%	9.68%	9.26%
Price to Book	0.98 x	0.81 x	0.81 x	0.98 x	1.63 x	1.96 x	1.83 x	1.76 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,760,668	1,761,128	1,760,921	1,722,303	1,721,367	1,722,603	-	-
Reference price ²	7.310	5.840	4.510	5.730	8.410	10.77	10.77	10.77
Announcement Date	21/08/19	19/08/20	18/08/21	17/08/22	16/08/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: June	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	14,727	13,157	12,097	14,461	16,481	16,144	16,469	16,288
EBITDA ¹	3,232	3,141	2,048	2,114	3,107	3,707	3,695	3,378
EBIT ¹	1,308	1,329	540	527	1,417	2,106	2,084	1,835
Operating Margin	8.88%	10.1%	4.46%	3.64%	8.6%	13.05%	12.66%	11.27%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	1,278	179	-1,846	-874	1,478	1,732	1,861	1,536
Net income ¹	1,211	83	-2,291	-1,429	1,055	1,507	1,615	1,403
Net margin	8.22%	0.63%	-18.94%	-9.88%	6.4%	9.34%	9.81%	8.61%
EPS ²	0.6870	0.0470	-1.302	-0.8150	0.6130	0.8442	0.9001	0.7661
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,135	661	840	369	-1,313	1,018	2,065	1,915
FCF margin	7.71%	5.02%	6.94%	2.55%	-7.97%	6.3%	12.54%	11.76%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	35.12%	21.04%	41.02%	17.46%	-	27.45%	55.88%	56.69%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	93.72%	796.39%	-	-	-	67.52%	127.86%	136.48%
Dividend per Share ²	0.2500	0.2500	0.2000	0.2900	0.3650	0.5405	0.5924	0.5300
Announcement Date	21/08/19	19/08/20	18/08/21	17/08/22	16/08/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: June	2020 S1	2021 S1	2021 S2	2022 S1	2022 S2	2023 S1	2023 S2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 S1	2025 S2
Net sales ¹	6,728	6,068	6,029	-	7,950	-	7,721	-	702	709	-	-
EBITDA	1,590	1,154	-	1,099	1,015	1,059	2,048	1,995	-	-	-	-
EBIT	665	-	142	-	239	243	1,174	1,231	-	-	-	-
Operating Margin	9.88%	-	2.36%	-	3.01%	-	15.21%	-	-	-	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	697	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net income	599	13	-	-131	-1,298	399	-	995	-	-	865	773
Net margin	8.9%	0.21%	-	-	-16.33%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EPS	0.3400	0.007000	-	-	-	-	-	0.5750	-	-	-	-
Dividend per Share	0.1500	0.1250	-	0.1250	-	0.1650	0.2000	0.2750	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	19/02/20	17/02/21	18/08/21	16/02/22	17/08/22	15/02/23	16/08/23	14/02/24	-	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: June	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	6,050	5,612	4,639	2,838	2,877	3,111	2,780	2,126
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.872 x	1.787 x	2.265 x	1.342 x	0.926 x	0.8394 x	0.7523 x	0.6293 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,135	661	840	369	-1,313	1,018	2,065	1,915
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	8.25%	7.93%	2.83%	4.18%	7.91%	14.1%	15.6%	13.1%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	4.11%	4.02%	1.38%	1.8%	3.48%	7.83%	9.37%	7.76%
Assets ¹	29,450	2,062	-166,135	-79,575	30,342	19,258	17,237	18,077
Book Value Per Share ²	7.460	7.210	5.550	5.820	5.170	5.490	5.880	6.110
Cash Flow per Share ²	0.7500	0.5400	0.5500	0.3000	-0.3700	0.6200	0.9400	0.9600
Capex ¹	405	665	500	728	680	657	595	489
Capex / Sales	2.75%	5.05%	4.13%	5.03%	4.13%	4.07%	3.61%	3%
Announcement Date	21/08/19	19/08/20	18/08/21	17/08/22	16/08/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Origin Energy Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

10.77 AUD

Average target price

10.6 AUD

Spread / Average Target

-1.58%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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