Fourth Quarter 2020
Analyst Conference Call
January 28, 2021
Forward-Looking Statements
The information included in this presentation and the accompanying comments from management contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include statements regarding the health of the housing market and the potential adverse impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and projected full year 2021 and 1Q 2021 home closings, home closing revenue, gross margins, effective tax rate, diluted earnings per share and community counts.
Such statements are based on the current beliefs and expectations of Company management and current market conditions, which are subject to significant uncertainties and fluctuations. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. The Company makes no commitment, and disclaims any duty, to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect future events or changes in these expectations, except as required by law. Meritage's business is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. As a result of those risks and uncertainties, the Company's stock and note prices may fluctuate dramatically.
Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements, and that could negatively affect our business include, but are not limited to, the following: disruptions to our business by COVID-19, fear of a similar event, and measures implemented by federal, state and local governments or health authorities to address it; the availability and cost of finished lots and undeveloped land; shortages in the availability and cost of labor; the ability of our potential buyers to sell their existing homes; changes in interest rates and the availability and pricing of residential mortgages; our exposure to information technology failures and security breaches; legislation related to tariffs; inflation in the cost of materials used to develop communities and construct homes; the adverse effect of slow absorption rates; impairments of our real estate inventory; cancellation rates; competition; changes in tax laws that adversely impact us or our homebuyers; a change to the feasibility of projects under option or contract that could result in the write-down or write-off of earnest or option deposits; our potential exposure to and impacts from natural disasters or severe weather conditions; home warranty and construction defect claims; failures in health and safety performance; our ability to obtain performance and surety bonds in connection with our development work; the loss of key personnel; failure to comply with laws and regulations; our limited geographic diversification; fluctuations in quarterly operating results; our level of indebtedness; our ability to obtain financing if our credit ratings are downgraded; our compliance with government regulations, the effect of legislative and other governmental actions, orders, policies or initiatives that impact housing, labor availability, construction, mortgage availability, our access to capital, the cost of capital or the economy in general, or other initiatives that seek to restrain growth of new housing construction or similar measures; legislation relating to energy and climate change; the replication of our energy-efficient technologies by our competitors; negative publicity that affects our reputation and other factors identified in documents filed by the Company with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including those set forth in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019 and our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2020 under the caption "Risk Factors," which can be found on our website at www.investors.meritagehomes.com.
2
Management Representatives
Steven J. Hilton - Executive Chairman
Phillippe Lord - CEO
Hilla Sferruzza - EVP & Chief Financial Officer
Emily Tadano - VP Investor Relations
3
2020 Milestones At Meritage Homes
100% | 8th straight year | |
of recognition, received various Avid | ||
contactless selling to | Diamond, Gold & Benchmark | |
customers | Awards across nine divisions | |
first homebuilder to introduce
MERV-13
advanced air filtration system
nationwide to control & improve
indoor air exchange
all-time highest annual volume of sales orders & home closings; in turn, our best average absorption pace since 2005 of
5.2 per month
contributed
$200,000
to INROADS & the United Negro College Fund
- began our multiyear partnership with these organizations
closed our
135,000th
home
greatest annual
home closing revenue & home
closing gross profit in our
company's history
donated over
$500,000
to help those affected by
COVID-19, fighting hunger, &
combating homelessness
4
Strong Performance In Both Entry-Level And First Move-Up
Average community count by
product type
268 | 247 | 200 |
Orders by product
type
1,653 2,093 3,174
Absorptions per month
& Y/Y%
94%
45 | 32 | 13 | ||||
53 | ||||||
134 | 104 | Other | ||||
1MU | ||||||
134 | Entry Level | |||||
228
758
169 135
762
778
2,277
89 | 111 | 67% |
45% | ||
33% | ||
4Q18 | 4Q19 | 4Q20 |
1,146 72%
667 55%
40%
4Q18 4Q19 4Q20
87%
42% 5.8
5.3
35% 5.0
4.3
37%
2.8
4Q19 | 1Q20 | 2Q20 | 3Q20 | 4Q20 |
5
Broad Strength Everywhere Led By The East Region with 76% Sales Order Growth
STATES & REGIONS
Y/Y (%) changes 4Q20 vs 4Q19
AZ | CA | CO | West | Central | FL | GA | NC | SC | TN | East | |
(TX) | |||||||||||
Average Active | 34.0 | 18.0 | 11.0 | 63.0 | 60.5 | 32.5 | 9.0 | 20.5 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 76.0 |
Communities | 0% | (25%) | (42%) | (18%) | (20%) | (6%) | (50%) | (13%) | (37%) | (11%) | (20%) |
Entry-level % | |||||||||||
Average | 62% | 86% | 50% | 67% | 71% | 65% | 39% | 71% | 50% | 81% | 64% |
Communities | |||||||||||
Absorption per | 4.8 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 5.2 |
month | 38% | 63% | 155% | 65% | 83% | 86% | 176% | 105% | 246% | 138% | 118% |
Orders | 37% | 21% | 48% | 34% | 46% | 75% | 39% | 78% | 120% | 112% | 76% |
ASP on Orders | 7% | 8% | (2%) | 4% | 0% | (9%) | 6% | 0% | 13% | (6%) | (2%) |
Order Value | 46% | 31% | 45% | 39% | 47% | 60% | 48% | 78% | 148% | 98% | 72% |
6
Spec Inventory A Core Tenet Of Meritage Operations
Home Closings | ||
4Q19 Closings | 4Q20 Closings | |
Dirt | ||
Dirt | Start, | |
Spec | 29% | |
Start, | ||
Inventory, | ||
39% | Spec | |
61% | ||
Inventory, | ||
71%
Ending Backlog Units | ||||||
6000 | 5,242 | 4,672 | ||||
5000 | 4,395 | |||||
3,568 | ||||||
4000 | ||||||
2,782 | ||||||
3000 | ||||||
2000 | ||||||
1000 | ||||||
0 | ||||||
4Q19 | 1Q20 | 2Q20 | 3Q20 | 4Q20 | ||
Average Specs Per Community
14 | ||||||
12.9 | ||||||
13 | 12.4 | |||||
12 | 11.2 | 11.2 | ||||
11 | ||||||
10 | 9.3 | |||||
9 | ||||||
8 | ||||||
4Q19 | 1Q20 | 2Q20 | 3Q20 | 4Q20 | ||
Available Specs Completed or Under Construction
6000 | ||||||
5000 | ||||||
4000 | ||||||
3,025 | 2,703 | 2,519 | ||||
3000 | ||||||
2,210 | 2,276 | |||||
2000 | ||||||
1000 | ||||||
0 | ||||||
4Q19 | 1Q20 | 2Q20 | 3Q20 | 4Q20 | ||
7
47% Earnings Growth In 4Q20
($ Millions | 4Q20 | 4Q19 | %Chg | FY2020 | FY2019 | %Chg |
except EPS & ASP) | ||||||
Home closings | 3,744 | 2,830 | +32% | 11,834 | 9,267 | +28% |
ASP (closings) | $376K | $390K | (4%) | $377K | $389K | (3%) |
Home closing revenue | $1,409.2 | $1,103.7 | +28% | $4,464.4 | $3,604.6 | +24% |
Home closing gross profit | $337.8 | $219.0 | +54% | $980.4 | $680.7 | +44% |
Home closing gross margin | 24.0% | 19.8% | +420 bps | 22.0% | 18.9% | +310 bps |
SG&A expenses | $131.0 | $111.2 | +18% | $446.9 | $392.8 | +14% |
% of home closing revenue | 9.3% | 10.1% | (80) bps | 10.0% | 10.9% | (90) bps |
Earnings before taxes | $195.4 | $110.5 | +77% | $533.6 | $302.9 | +76% |
Tax rate (1) | 21.9% | 6.3% | +1560 bps | 20.6% | 17.6% | +300 bps |
Net earnings (2) | $152.5 | $103.6 | +47% | $423.5 | $249.7 | +70% |
Diluted EPS | $3.97 | $2.65 | +50% | $11.00 | $6.42 | +71% |
% of total specs completed at December 31st | 9% | 28% | (68%) |
4Q20 HIGHLIGHTS:
- Record quarterly closing revenue
- Best quarterly closing gross margin since 2006 despite rising costs of lumber and other commodities
- Lowest quarterly SG&A as a percentage of home closing revenue since 2007, reflecting greater overhead leverage and cost savings from technology enhancements
- $20.3M impairment due to upcoming disposition of assets that no longer fit our strategy; estimated closing in the first half of 2021
- In 4Q19 and FY19, the extension of eligible energy tax credits occurred in Dec. 2019, resulting in the beneficial impact for full year 2018 and 2019 reflected in 4Q19.
- 4Q20 includes $20.3M in land impairments; 4Q19 includes $5.6M charge for early extinguishment of debt. FY20 includes $24.9M in total impairments; FY19 includes $7.3M in inventory impairments and $5.6M charge for early extinguishment of debt.
8
Strong Balance Sheet Provides Flexibility
Net Debt-to-Capital Reconciliation ($ Millions)
(non-GAAP reconciliation) | Dec 31, 2020 | Dec 31, 2019 |
Notes payable & other borrowings | $1,020 | $1,019 |
Less: cash & cash equivalents | ($746) | ($319) |
Net debt | $274 | $700 |
Stockholders' equity | $2,348 | $1,974 |
Total net capital | $2,622 | $2,674 |
Net debt-to-capital | 10.5% | 26.2% |
Total capital | $3,368 | $2,993 |
Debt-to-capital | 30.3% | 34.0% |
Book value/share | $62.59 | $51.68 |
4Q20 HIGHLIGHTS:
Ample liquidity at December 31, 2020 given
- $746M of cash
- Nothing drawn under $780M credit facility
- Lowest net debt to capital in Company history
Achieved several objectives in 4Q20:
- Amended our revolver to a 5-year facility maturing in 2025
- Opportunistically repurchased 100,000 shares totaling $8.8M
- Additional $100M authorized for share repurchases under the existing program
- Received two credit rating upgrades
9
Accelerated Land & Development Investment
Real Assets | 4Q20 | 4Q19 |
Land & development spending | $506M | $245M |
As of period ended Dec-31: | ||
Total lots controlled | 55,502 | 41,399 |
Supply of lots (years) | 4.7 | 4.5 |
- Owned | 59% | 63% |
- Optioned | 41% | 37% |
69 | 69 | ||||||
43 | 46 | ||||||
34 | 32 | ||||||
22 | |||||||
11 | |||||||
1,222 | 3,822 | 5,468 | 6,460 | 2,858 | 4,198 | 8,931 | 11,239 |
1Q19 | 2Q19 | 3Q19 | 4Q19 | 1Q20 | 2Q20 | 3Q20 | 4Q20 |
Net Newly Controlled Lots | New Communities |
10
Guidance For FY2021 & 1Q21
• | 11,500-12,500 home closings | ||
FULL | • | $4.2-4.6 billion home closing revenue | |
YEAR | • | Home closing gross margin 22.0-23.0% | |
2021 | • Effective tax rate ~23.0% | ||
• | Diluted EPS $10.50-$11.50 | ||
• | 2,600-2,900 home closings | ||
1Q | • $950.0 million to $1.05 billion home | ||
closing revenue | |||
21 | |||
• Home closing gross margin ~22.5% | |||
• | Diluted EPS $2.25-$2.50 | ||
Projected Community Count
- First half of 2021 to remain +/- 200 communities
- End 2021 with approximately 235-245 communities
- June 2022 target of 300 communities
11
Positioned For Growth
Pace & Price | Balance Sheet | Accelerated Land | Strong Land |
Strength & | Investments | Position | |
Flexibility |
• Achieving strong | • Increases in operating |
closing revenue growth | cash flow and our |
lowest levels of net debt | |
to capital |
• Will spend +$1.5B | • Focused on replacing |
annually in 2021 and | communities as they |
beyond to sustain 300 | close out and |
communities | maintaining 300 |
communities in the | |
coming years |
300 COMMUNITIES BY MID 2022
12
Summary
- Well-positionedwith entry-level and first move-up
- Entering 2021 with heavy backlog and +2,500 specs completed or under construction
- Strategy to grow
- Executing at a high level
13
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Disclaimer
Meritage Homes Corporation published this content on 28 January 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 28 January 2021 14:17:08 UTC.