Financials Marcopolo Sao Paulo

Equities

POMO3

BRPOMOACNOR0

Heavy Machinery & Vehicles

Delayed Sao Paulo Other stock markets 21:06:00 20/05/2024 BST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
5.36 ^BRL	-1.29%		+2.49%	+14.86%

05-11	China resumes review of stock offerings after three-month hiatus	RE
05-03	Transcript : Marcopolo S.A., Q1 2024 Earnings Call, May 03, 2024

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	4,224	2,645	2,678	2,514	6,142	7,258	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	4,953	3,629	3,677	3,711	7,026	7,478	7,485	7,141
P/E ratio	21.3 x	26.2 x	7.88 x	5.97 x	8.18 x	6.11 x	6.15 x	6.19 x
Yield	1.33%	1.67%	-	3.25%	3.4%	5.62%	8.32%	7.13%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.98 x	0.74 x	0.77 x	0.46 x	0.92 x	0.8 x	0.73 x	0.7 x
EV / Revenue	1.15 x	1.01 x	1.05 x	0.69 x	1.05 x	0.82 x	0.75 x	0.68 x
EV / EBITDA	14.7 x	13.5 x	11 x	9.62 x	7.42 x	5.11 x	4.55 x	4.16 x
EV / FCF	20.9 x	80.1 x	41.7 x	-82.5 x	7.75 x	15.7 x	7.74 x	7.29 x
FCF Yield	4.79%	1.25%	2.4%	-1.21%	12.9%	6.38%	12.9%	13.7%
Price to Book	1.88 x	1.07 x	0.99 x	0.85 x	1.88 x	1.62 x	1.49 x	1.46 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,131,808	1,127,298	1,127,625	1,128,474	1,129,791	1,129,815	-	-
Reference price ²	3.750	2.392	2.542	2.358	5.875	7.030	7.030	7.030
Announcement Date	27/02/20	25/02/21	25/02/22	28/02/23	27/02/24	-	-	-

¹BRL in Million²BRL

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	4,315	3,590	3,499	5,416	6,683	9,116	9,944	10,441
EBITDA ¹	338	268.5	333.5	385.6	946.9	1,464	1,644	1,715
EBIT ¹	251.6	172.5	228	265.8	800.6	1,288	1,438	1,450
Operating Margin	5.83%	4.8%	6.52%	4.91%	11.98%	14.13%	14.46%	13.89%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	245.2	48.69	382.9	413.3	865.6	1,445	1,521	1,530
Net income ¹	201.4	103.9	366.6	449.1	816.2	1,158	1,176	1,218
Net margin	4.67%	2.89%	10.48%	8.29%	12.21%	12.7%	11.83%	11.66%
EPS ²	0.1764	0.0914	0.3227	0.3952	0.7183	1.150	1.143	1.135
Free Cash Flow ¹	237.3	45.33	88.17	-44.96	907.2	477	966.5	979
FCF margin	5.5%	1.26%	2.52%	-0.83%	13.57%	5.23%	9.72%	9.38%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	70.21%	16.88%	26.44%	-	95.8%	32.57%	58.78%	57.09%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	117.84%	43.65%	24.05%	-	111.15%	41.19%	82.17%	80.4%
Dividend per Share ²	0.0500	0.0400	-	0.0767	0.2000	0.3950	0.5852	0.5012
Announcement Date	27/02/20	25/02/21	25/02/22	28/02/23	27/02/24	-	-	-

¹BRL in Million²BRL

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1
Net sales ¹	1,084	958.6	1,152	1,516	1,789	1,654	1,364	1,615	2,050	1,656
EBITDA ¹	74.4	51.3	51.61	90.5	192.2	292.8	158	208.6	287.4	315.4
EBIT	47.08	-	22.64	-	159.8	-	-	-	-	-
Operating Margin	4.34%	-	1.97%	-	8.93%	-	-	-	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-	-	-	-	276.8	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	68.46	99.39	32.74	59.11	257.9	240	139	159.9	277.3	309.8
Net margin	6.31%	10.37%	2.84%	3.9%	14.42%	14.51%	10.19%	9.9%	13.53%	18.7%
EPS	0.0602	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	25/02/22	07/05/22	01/08/22	03/11/22	28/02/23	02/05/23	01/08/23	31/10/23	27/02/24	02/05/24

¹BRL in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	729	984	999	1,197	884	220	227	-
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	117
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	2.156 x	3.665 x	2.995 x	3.104 x	0.9336 x	0.1502 x	0.1381 x	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	237	45.3	88.2	-45	907	477	967	979
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	9.2%	3.6%	13.4%	14.8%	24.3%	29.5%	26.2%	23%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	3.89%	1.88%	5.86%	6.39%	10.6%	13.9%	12.4%	12.1%
Assets ¹	5,171	5,527	6,257	7,025	7,677	8,326	9,505	10,084
Book Value Per Share ²	2.000	2.240	2.560	2.780	3.120	4.350	4.720	4.830
Cash Flow per Share	0.3600	0.1600	0.1700	-	-	-	-	-
Capex ¹	177	130	100	90.3	154	251	238	253
Capex / Sales	4.11%	3.63%	2.86%	1.67%	2.3%	2.75%	2.39%	2.42%
Announcement Date	27/02/20	25/02/21	25/02/22	28/02/23	27/02/24	-	-	-

¹BRL in Million²BRL

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Marcopolo

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

7.03 BRL

Average target price

9.9 BRL

Spread / Average Target

+40.83%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Heavy Buses & Coaches

	1st Jan change	Capi.
TRATON SE	+51.74%	17.54B
ANHUI ANKAI AUTOMOBILE CO., LTD	-14.23%	579M
NEX POINT	-55.40%	246M
EBUSCO HOLDING N.V.	-40.90%	212M
RAC ELECTRIC VEHICLES INC.	-15.43%	98.3M
PAVLOVO BUS	-.--%	89.3M

Heavy Buses & Coaches