By Peter Bohan

Top analyst J.D. Power forecast U.S. auto sales in 2009 to fall 13 percent to about 11.4 million vehicles, a fourth straight year of declines that will further pressure the U.S. economy and could push some automakers closer to collapse.

U.S. sales in 2008 sank to 13.2 million vehicles, down from 16.2 million in 2007 and the worst result in 16 years.

"Let's maintain our sense of humor, folks," J.D. Power president Finbarr O'Neill told an industry seminar on the sidelines of the Detroit Auto Show. "We're going to need it."

The credit crunch, recession and weak consumer confidence continue to batter car buyers. Auto sales generally account for more than 10 percent of U.S. retail sales, a prime driver of economic growth. But there are hopes the Obama administration's economic stimulus package will boost consumer confidence.

O'Neill said the pace of U.S. auto sales could edge up to 10.9 million units in the first quarter of this year, compared with 10.2 million in the last quarter on 2008.

"We believe we're near the bottom, or at the bottom," he said. "The market will come back, but it won't come back to where it was before."

In the meantime, he added, "there's a lot of speculation about who's going to win and who's going to lose."

Ford Motor Co senior economist Emily Kolinski-Morris cited worries about consumer finances amid forecasts of housing industry declines near the "magnitude of the 1930s," with housing starts falling as much as 76 percent from their peak.

Consumer spending, which has driven U.S. growth for years, has dried up. Millions have lost their jobs. Others who tapped the equity of their homes for loans have been foreclosed.

So the probability of an automaker going bankrupt is "greater than not," Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache said.

"There's no guarantee that all of the automakers are going to survive this process," he said. "There is much more systemic risk than we've ever seen."

"Somebody is the walking dead out there," O'Neill said.

POLITICAL HEAT EVEN WORSE THAN THE ECONOMY?

In the game of survivor that is shaping for Detroit's Big 3, politics may be more important than even consumer spending.

In December, General Motors and Chrysler were approved for $17.4 billion in emergency U.S. government loans. But both face tough deadlines and conditions on the loans.

Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker, who pushed for the strict conditions on the bailout for automakers, said on Tuesday he hoped Chrysler LLC would merge to become a viable company.

"Chrysler probably needs to merge with somebody," Corker said, adding the automaker owned by Cerberus Capital Management was not making needed investments.

"My hope is that they will in fact merge and be again a viable part of Michigan and our country," said Corker.

Corker, who was touring the Detroit auto show and scheduled meetings with U.S. auto executives, said he was also concerned that General Motors might not meet the aggressive restructuring targets set out for it under the $13.4 billion loan granted to the automaker by the Bush administration.

"That concerns me," said Corker, a Republican, whose home state includes auto supply operations and the North American headquarters of Japan's Nissan Motor Co.

Corker led a group of Southern conservatives during an ill-fated congressional bailout effort in December, some of whom opposed a rescue while others wanted deeper labor concessions than those proposed by Democrats.

A rally in support of auto workers on Tuesday in a Detroit suburb drew dozens who hope the new Congress, led by a more labor-friendly Obama administration, would bring labor a stronger voice in auto industry restructuring.

"I'm here to support a living wage for a good day's work," said Matthew Krol, who lost his job at Chrysler's Detroit axle plan on December 16. "The cost of necessities is not going down, but they want us to take wage cuts? How is that right?"

"I think Obama will take a look at Detroit and he'll help us because he's pro-America and pro-labor," said Rex Lux, a truck driver at Chrysler. "But he's going to have his work cut out for him."

So will automakers, especially Chrysler, analysts said.

"If the economy doesn't start to show signs of life, I don't think Chrysler can keep the whole thing afloat," said Peter DeLorenzo, analyst at autoextremist.com.

"The suppliers are starting to make contingency plans for a world that doesn't have Chrysler in it," he said. "I just don't see them surviving the year."

(Additional reporting by David Bailey, Nick Carey, Kevin Krolicki, Ben Klayman, Soyoung Kim and Poornima Gupta, Writing by Peter Bohan; Editing by Matthew Lewis)