Chevron : California regulations could cut supply, raise gasoline prices says chevron exec

¹ "As of Tuesday, the average cost of gas in California is nearly $5.40 a gallon, compared to the national average of $3.66, according to data from AAA.The average for a gallon has risen by around 30 cents for California since the start of April" California's gas tax to increase by 2 cents as prices rise (kcra.com)

² CEC Docket Number 23-OIIP-01, Chevron Comment Letter, December 12, 2023 RE: Nov 28 Max Margin Penalty

³ Cal. Gov. Office, California Remains the World's 5th Largest Economy | California Governor (2024)

⁴Cal. Energy Commission, California Oil Refinery History (May 22, 2023)

⁵CA Source: US Energy Information Administration California Operable Capacity updated in 2022. Retrieved April 2023; PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) Source US Energy Information Administration PADD 3 Operable Capacity updated in 2022

⁶Crack Spread: A "Quick-and-Dirty" Indicator of Refining Profitability (stillwaterassociates.com)

⁷ US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Accessed April 2024 resource for Los Angeles Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending ("RBOB"),: Los Angeles Ultra-Low Sulfur California Air Resources Board ("CARB") Diesel, Gulf Coast Conventional Gasoline Regular, Gulf Coast Ultra-Low Sulfur No. 2 Diesel spot price. Alaska North Slope ("ANS") crude oil price and Maya crude oil price (spot). Source: "Market Indicators" (sourced from third parties such as S&P Platts). Mars: Mars crude oil price (first purchase). Source: EIA

⁸Inst. for Energy Res., California Policies Are Discouraging Investment in Oil Production and Refining in the State (Feb. 1, 2024),

⁹Cal. Air Res. Bd., Advance Clean Car II,

¹⁰Division of Petroleum Market Oversight (DPMO) Letter to the Governor, Jan 31, 2024

¹¹ CEC Draft Transportation Fuels Assessment, published on April 12, 2024 Page ES-6

¹² California Reformulate Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB)

¹³ Matthew H. Brown et al., Nat'l Conf. of State Leg., Findings on Hawaii Gasoline Prices and Policies (Apr. 2003)

¹⁴ Stillwater Assocs., Study of Fuel Prices and Legislative Initiatives for the State of Hawaii (Aug. 5, 2003),

¹⁵ April 11, 2024, CEC Workshop on SB X1-2 Maximum Gross Gasoline Refining Margin and Penalty Structure Stillwater Dave Hackett presentation

¹⁶ April 11, 2024, CEC Workshop on SB X1-2 Maximum Gross Gasoline Refining Margin and Penalty Structure DPMO Chief Economist Dr. Moreno presentation

¹⁷California Oil Refinery Cost Disclosure Act Monthly Report

¹⁸April 11, 2024, CEC Workshop on SB X1-2 Maximum Gross Gasoline Refining Margin and Penalty Structure Tom O'Connor ICF presentation

¹⁹ Cal. Pub. Res. Code § 25355.5(e) (emphasis added)

²⁰CEC Draft Transportation Fuels Assessment, published on April 12, 2024

²¹ CEC. What Drives California's Gasoline Prices? Published September 2022

²² CEC Definition of Environmental Fees, Published March 2023. Petroleum Watch (ca.gov) Accessed April 2024

²³US Davis and CARB assume price allowance will continue to increase. CARB Joint Cap-and-Trade Workshop Nov 16 2023 pg. 34

²⁴ CARB's Standardized Regulatory Impact Assessment (SRIA) for 2024 Cap-and-Trade (C&T) amendments does not specify the expected cost increase for fuel consumers. However, the 2018 amendments' SRIA estimated that for every $10.00 increase in C&T Price Allowance, gasoline prices would rise by approximately $0.09 per gallon. CARB Cap-and-Trade 2018 Amendments SRIA (ca.gov) Published Sept 2018, Accessed April 2024

²⁵ CARB Low Carbon Fuel Standard 2023 Amendments SRIA, Published September 2023, Access April 2024

²⁶ CEC Estimated Gasoline Price Breakdown and Margins Data last updated April 2024. Retrieved April 15, 2024

²⁷ Assume C&T price allowance doesn't change significantly over next two years

²⁸ Assume Table 50 proposed scenario of $60 from CARB Cap and Trade 2024 Amendments SRIA, Published April 2024, Accessed April 2024

²⁹ Assume near price ceiling $110.00 by 2031 a scenario model by UC Davis for CARB Modeling by UC Davis, presented to CARB and Quebec MELCCFP November 16, 2023 pg. 34, Accessed April 2024 CARB Cap-and-Trade 2024 Amendments SRIA, Published March 2024, Figure 4

³⁰ CARB's Advanced Clean Cars II, which would implement a ban on new gasoline cars, requires a waiver from the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under the Clean Air Act. CARB's request for this waiver remains pending with the EPA.

³¹ Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA) Comments on Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) Regulation 15-Day Rulemaking Package April 7, 2023 and WSPA Comments on Advanced Clean Cars II Regulation Initial Statement of Reasons (ISOR) Documents May 31, 2022