By Scott DiSavino May 16 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a 15-week high on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected storage build and another drop in output. Also supporting the price increase was a rise in feedgas to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants with Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass export plant in Louisiana expected to return to full service. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added a smaller-than-expected 70 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended May 10. Analysts said that was lower than usual for this time of year due to reduced output in recent weeks. That was below the 77-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 93 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 90 bcf for this time of year. Front-month gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.5 cents, or 3.1%, to $2.491 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:36 a.m. EDT (1436 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since Jan. 26. That kept the front-month in technically overbought territory for a 10th straight day for the first time since April 2022. Traders noted the futures price increase was kept in check by the tremendous oversupply of gas in storage. Analysts forecast gas stockpiles were about 31% above normal levels for this time of year. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 97.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 98.2 bcfd in April. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, output dropped by around 2.4 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary 17-week low of 95.7 bcfd on Thursday. That put U.S. gas production down about 10% so far in 2024 after several energy firms, including EQT and Chesapeake Energy, delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March. EQT is the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy. Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 31. LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would hold near 92.8 bcfd over the next two weeks. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose from an average of 11.9 bcfd in April to 12.7 bcfd so far in May with the return to full service of Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd export plant in Texas. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise from 12.4 bcfd on Wednesday to 13.2 bcfd on Thursday as flows to the 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass plant rise from an eight-month low of 3.8 bcfd on Wednesday to 4.6 bcfd on Thursday. LNG export plants consume a little more gas than they can turn into LNG since they use some of that fuel to power the equipment used to liquefy gas. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year May 10 May 3 May 10 average Actual Actual May 10 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +70 +79 +93 +90 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,633 2,563 2,212 2,013 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 30.8% 33.3% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five-Year Last Year Average Average 2023 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 2.43 2.42 2.30 2.66 3.60 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 9.65 9.40 9.97 13.04 14.39 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 10.80 10.45 10.45 14.39 14.31 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 26 28 39 56 50 U.S. GFS CDDs 116 115 81 89 95 U.S. GFS TDDs 143 143 120 145 145 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year (2019-2023) Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 97.2 97.2 97.2 102.5 94.4 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.5 7.1 6.9 6.9 7.5 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Supply 104.7 104.3 104.1 109.7 101.9 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.8 2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.1 5.6 U.S. LNG Exports 12.4 12.9 13.0 12.8 8.8 U.S. Commercial 5.6 5.2 4.8 5.1 5.8 U.S. Residential 6.0 5.1 4.4 5.0 6.9 U.S. Power Plant 32.7 32.6 33.7 34.2 28.4 U.S. Industrial 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.3 21.5 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 72.9 71.4 71.3 72.4 69.4 Total U.S. Demand 94.1 92.7 92.8 94.1 86.2 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2023 2022 2021 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 78 76 83 107 81 Jan-Jul 79 77 77 102 79 Oct-Sep 80 79 76 103 81 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended May 17 May 10 May 3 Apr 26 Apr 19 Wind 10 13 14 16 16 Solar 6 6 6 6 6 Hydro 8 7 7 7 7 Other 1 1 1 1 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 40 41 40 37 37 Coal 14 14 13 13 13 Nuclear 20 19 19 19 20 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub2.12 2.14 Transco Z6 New York 1.62 1.49 PG&E Citygate 2.61 2.67 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.45 1.44 Chicago Citygate 1.90 1.80 Algonquin Citygate 1.65 1.63 SoCal Citygate 1.92 1.95 Waha Hub 0.31 0.17 AECO 0.74 0.76 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 31.50 30.50 PJM West 45.00 41.50 Ercot North 40.25 20.00 Mid C 12.00 53.00 Palo Verde 5.25 17.50 SP-15 3.00 15.00 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Jonathan Oatis)
S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index
Index
Market Closed - USA 20:54:06 31/05/2024 BST | 5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
121.1 PTS | +0.58% | -11.50% | +2.90% |
05-24 | Energy Flat, Down on Week, Amid Rate Fears - Energy Roundup | DJ |
05-24 | Permian Resources Files Prospectus for Potential Stock Sale | MT |
Stocks mentioned in the article
Price
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Change
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5d. change
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Capi.
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257.9 PTS | -0.85% | -0.93% | - | ||
157.7 USD | +1.44% | +0.52% | 36.12B | ||
121.1 PTS | +0.58% | -11.50% | - | ||
90.93 USD | +1.13% | +1.35% | 11.92B | ||
48.17 USD | -0.43% | -1.93% | 23.32B | ||
41.09 USD | -0.27% | +2.34% | 18.15B | ||
7.53 USD | +1.89% | +1.89% | 8.3B | ||
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