By Kirk Maltais


--Wheat for September delivery fell 2%, to $6.27 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, in response to indications that some form of a Black Sea export corridor may soon arise.

--Corn for December delivery fell 1.4%, to $4.93 1/2 a bushel.

--Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.3%, to $13.25 1/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Turning the Corner: While the end of the Black Sea export deal has been a source of support for wheat in recent weeks, the sentiment has shifted, with grain traders now thinking that there's a chance for the export deal to resume in some form. "The market evidently doesn't think that the corridor is completely dead, or else that the Ukrainians will succeed in a work-around," says Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note.

Blame it on the Rain: The outlook for a soggy weekend in some areas of the U.S. Corn Belt had grain traders extending the selling that started earlier this week. Corn's most-active contract fell under the $5 a bushel mark for the first time in 3 weeks. If the contract sinks much further, it'll be back at its lowest since late in 2020. "The market continues to absorb changing weather and the modules suggest there is more to come," said Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group in a note. "With the reality of crazy weather the lower 48 has realized . . . fears of flooding can be the next reality to this crop."

Minimal Demand: This morning's export sales report from the USDA had strong soybean sales, but less impressive showings for corn or wheat, which put pressure on those contracts throughout the day. "Too much supply in the U.S. and the world and not much demand, leaves those markets searching for a price level that will stimulate demand," said Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions.


INSIGHT


Behind Pace: Inspections of grain shipments coming from U.S. ports in the second quarter of the year are 26% behind the pace of shipments for the same timeframe last year, said the USDA. The agency notes that grain shipments in most regions were roughly off by 20% to 25%, but those coming out of the Atlantic Coast and Great Lakes were actually 73% behind. Soybean inspections were down 47% in the second quarter versus the same timeframe last year, while corn was off 21% and wheat was down 7%. Weak export demand is an ongoing narrative in the grain futures market.

On the Other Hand: Export sales of U.S. soybeans soared for the week ended July 27, more than triple the previous week's total. The USDA said sales of soybeans totaled 2.72 million metric tons across the 2022/23 and 23/24 marketing years, exponentially higher than the 743,100 tons the USDA reported last week. The total also beat the high end of predictions from analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, who forecast anywhere from 1.6 million tons to 2.6 million tons. Combined with soybean crops hit by drought in the Corn Belt, traders think the supply picture for soybeans will be tighter than for corn or wheat.


AHEAD


--The USDA will release its yearly agricultural land values report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

08-03-23 1546ET