NAPERVILLE, Illinois, June 12 (Reuters) - Rain across the U.S. Corn Belt was hit-or-miss last week, though near-normal temperatures offset some of the dryness impacts just a week after Crop Watch condition scores took the biggest dive since 2020.

At least half of the 11 Crop Watch locations did not receive sufficient rain within the last week, and those same spots could be light on precipitation over the next several days. Cooler weather should continue to fend off extreme crop stress, but heat risks could return next week.

Each week the Crop Watch producers assign condition scores to their fields on a 1-to-5 scale. The ratings are similar to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s where 1 is very poor, 3 is average and 5 is excellent. Crop Watch conditions do not incorporate yield assumptions, which will come later in the season.

The 11-field, unweighted average corn condition fell to 3.93 from 4.02 last week and 4.4 two weeks ago. A three-quarter-point drop in North Dakota due to excessive rainfall was offset by the same magnitude increase in southeastern Illinois after an inch of rain on Sunday.

Half-point reductions came in both corn and soybeans in Indiana and Ohio due to dryness stress, though no other adjustments were made in corn. Soybeans increased a half-point in southeastern Illinois and a quarter-point in South Dakota, but western Illinois and Minnesota beans fell a quarter-point each.

That trimmed the 10-field soybean average to 3.93 from 4.0 last week and 4.13 two weeks ago. North Dakota beans, planted a week ago, are just emerging and conditions will be available next week.

The South Dakota producer is feeling very positive about his soybeans after recent rains, but producers from Iowa to Indiana have mentioned that beans are growing very slowly due to dryness.

WEATHER RUNDOWN

The Crop Watch soybeans in North Dakota received 2 inches of mostly beneficial rain, though the corn was partially flooded with 6 inches under an isolated heavy storm. The Kansas fields received 2.5 inches of rain last week, over an inch fell in South Dakota, and the Ohio fields got about 1.5 inches Sunday into Monday.

Other locations were not as lucky. Weekly rain totaled 0.7 inch in western Iowa and up to 0.6 inch in Nebraska, while eastern Iowa and Minnesota received 0.2 inch. Indiana picked up 0.4 inch on Sunday but trace precipitation was observed in western Illinois.

Producers that received under an inch of rain remain somewhat anxious about the recent dryness, though milder temperatures through at least midweek should help curb crop stress. Warmer temperatures are possible by the weekend and into next week.

Forecast models as of Monday morning suggest the next two weeks will be drier than normal in most of the core Corn Belt including parts of Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska, though some scattered showers are possible throughout. The dry trend could be tolerable if there is no excessive heat, so long as rain showers are timely and the July pattern is more favorable.

In southeastern Illinois, where up to 1.5 inches fell on crops on Sunday, the producer would be concerned in about 10 days if it stays dry. The Indiana producer feels Sunday’s rain will not last his crops more than three days before stress returns, and the eastern Iowa grower will be worried if heat arrives next week without rain first.

The following are the states and counties of the 2023 Crop Watch corn and soybean fields: Kingsbury, South Dakota; Freeborn, Minnesota; Burt, Nebraska; Rice, Kansas; Audubon, Iowa; Cedar, Iowa; Warren, Illinois; Crawford, Illinois; Tippecanoe, Indiana; Fairfield, Ohio. The North Dakota corn is in Griggs County and the soybeans are in Stutsman.

Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.

(Writing by Karen Braun Editing by Matthew Lewis)