U.S. Crude-Oil Stockpiles Likely Declined in DOE Data, Analysts Say -- Update

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By Dan Molinski

U.S. commercial crude-oil stockpiles are expected to have decreased from the previous week in data due Wednesday from the Energy Department, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal.

Estimates from 11 analysts and traders showed U.S. oil inventories are projected to have declined by 600,000 barrels for the week ended Jan. 6, with six analysts forecasting a decline and five predicting an increase. Forecasts range from a decrease of 4.5 million barrels to an increase of 4.3 million barrels.

Analysts noted the likely decrease would be partly because of a smaller-than-normal transfer of crude last week from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the commercial side. The SPR sales by the government are winding down after taking place throughout 2022 as a way to reduce retail gasoline prices.

The closely watched survey from the DOE's Energy Information Administration is scheduled for release at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

Gasoline stockpiles are expected to increase by 600,000 barrels from the previous week, according to analysts. Estimates range from a decline of 2.5 million barrels to an increase of 4 million barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which is mostly diesel fuel, are expected to fall by 700,000 barrels from the previous week. Forecasts range from a decrease of 2.9 million barrels to an increase of 3.3 million barrels.

Refinery use likely increased by 5.2 percentage points from the previous week to 84.8% as refineries resumed activity following some cold-weather-related shutdowns. Forecasts range from a 1.6 percentage-point decrease to a 9 percentage-point increase. Two analysts didn't make a forecast.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday its data for the week showed a 14.9 million-barrel increase in crude supplies, a 1.8 million-barrel rise in gasoline stocks and a 1.1 million-barrel increase in diesel inventories, according to a source.

 
                                  Crude Gasoline  Distillates  Refinery Use 
Again Capital                     -3.1    2.2       -0.8            9 
Citi Futures                      -3.5    1.5       -1.5            8 
Commodity Research Group            -1    unch      -1.2          8.5 
Confluence Investment Management    -3      4          3            4 
DTN                                1.4    1.2       -0.8          5.5 
Excel Futures                      4.3   -2.5       -1.5         -1.6 
Spartan Capital Securities         1.1    0.1       -2.9         n/f 
Mizuho                               2     -1         -2            5 
Price Futures Group                 -2     -2         -2            1 
Ritterbusch and Associates        -4.5    3.2        3.3          7.0 
Tradition Energy                   1.2    0.2       -1.2          n/f 
 
AVERAGE                           -0.6    0.6       -0.7          5.2 
 

n/f = no forecast

unch = unchanged

Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.

Write to Dan Molinski at [e-mail]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-10-23 1715ET