Some of the largest investment houses have lowered expectations for crude oil in the next 13 months, but crude and products moved higher Monday in a methodical manner.
Geopolitical temperatures in the Middle East were raised by a condemnation of Israeli military policies by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, but any lift that rhetoric inspired was diminished by news of a pending restart for 450,000 b/d of crude moving from Iraq through Turkey.
The past few days have seen Barclays lower its assumptions for 2024 Brent to $93/bbl and Goldman Sachs revised its prediction lower by $6/bbl to $92/bbl. Both numbers are substantially higher than the forward numbers of $79-$83/bbl seen in the 2024 futures curve.
Crude managed to catch some bids this morning with December West Texas Intermediate up $1.27 to $78.44/bbl while January Brent added $1.32 to $82.75/bbl.
Diesel saw robust increases in the futures and cash markets. December ULSD futures rose 8.59cts to $2.829/gal despite some fairly mild temperatures forecast for states that see heating oil consumption. Cash prices were up 7.5-8.5cts/gal in all seven markets monitored by OPIS.
Gasoline saw a bit more variation. December RBOB added 4.21cts to $2.2316/gal and most cash markets followed futures some 4cts/gal or more higher. The Pacific Northwest saw gasoline move up more than 7cts/gal with no clear explanation as to why.
U.S. retail gasoline prices look poised to slip below $3.35/gal shortly and the most common price across the U.S. remains at $2.999/gal. Retailer margins have compressed only slightly with about 44cts/gal separating wholesale costs and street prices.
Looming large later in the week is a double dose of petroleum data. EIA suspended its Weekly Petroleum Status report for the week ending Nov. 3 for system upgrades, and both that week and the week ending Nov. 10 will see issuance on Wednesday. Gasoline demand is perceived to be flat but there is a sense that overall stock levels from crude may move up substantially.
This content was created by Oil Price Information Service, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. OPIS is run independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
--Reporting by Tom Kloza, tkloza@opisnet.com; Editing by Michael Kelly, mkelly@opisnet.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-13-23 1252ET
