Crude Prices Forecast to Gradually Fall Next Year, Survey Shows

By Giulia Petroni

Oil prices are forecast to stay around current levels in the second half and progressively soften early next year, a survey of analysts compiled by The Wall Street Journal showed.

Brent crude is estimated at $86.32 and $85.92 a barrel in the third and fourth quarters of 2024. In the first two quarters of next year, the international oil benchmark is expected to fall to $84.50 and $82.46 a barrel, respectively.

West Texas Intermediate is seen at $81.81 and $81.76 a barrel in the third and fourth quarter of this year, respectively, and at $80.33 and $78.25 a barrel in the first and second quarters of 2025.

Oil futures gained 1% on Thursday, supported by prospects of a tighter market balance due to the recent extension of output curbs by OPEC+ and summer travel demand, as well as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Still, gains are capped by uncertainties over the timing and extent of interest-rate cuts in the U.S., with traders now focused on the next batch of inflation data--the Consumer Price Index--due on Friday for more cues into the Federal Reserve's next steps.

Brent crude currently trades around $85 a barrel, while WTI is around $81 a barrel.

According to the survey, prices are expected to fall even further in the third quarter of next year, with Brent at an average of $81.22 and the U.S. oil gauge at $76.94 a barrel.

Write to Giulia Petroni at [e-mail]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

06-27-24 1054ET