By Talking Points
- EUR/USD has a big cyclical test coming up this week
- USD/JPY finds support at important retracement level
- Gold overcomes key resistance, but cyclical picture less positive here
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Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD recovered this week after finding support just below the 1.3540 3rd square root relationship of the 2013 high
- Our trend bias is lower in the Euro while below the 2013 closing high near 1.3800
- The 1.3540 area remains key support, with weakness below on a closing basis needed to signal a broader downside resumption
- A cycle turn window is seen around the middle of next week
- Only a daily close back over 1.3800 would turn us positive on the Euro again
Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side under 1.3800.
Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
EUR/USD | *1.3540 | 1.3655 | 1.3680 | 1.3750 | *1.3800 |
Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY broke below the year’s opening range this week and traded to its lowest level since early December
- The close below 103.35 has shifted our broader trend bias to negative
- The 38% retracement of the October to Janaury advance near 102.00 is a key downside pivot that must be surpassed in the next few days to trigger the next important leg lower
- A turn window is seen today and Monday
- A weekly close back over 104.85 is needed to shift the trend bias back to positive
Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: We like selling USD/JPY on strength while below 104.85.
Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
USD/JPY | 101.55 | *102.00 | 102.35 | 103.30 | *104.85 |
Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- XAU/USD traded to its highest level since early November this past week before encountering resistance at at the 50% retracement of the October to December decline at 1270
- Our broader trend bias remains positive in the metal while above the 1x1 Gann angle line of the 2013 closing low near 1213
- A convergence of Gann and Fibonacci levels between 1270 and 1286 needs to be overcome to signal the next leg higher
- A cycle turn window is seen today that could lead to some near-term weakness
- A daily close back under 1213 would turn us negative on the metal
Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like being long while over 1213.
Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
XAU/USD | *1213 | 1246 | 1252 | *1286 | 1300 |
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
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To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
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